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Dr. Sven Kreitmair, CFA
Head of Credit Research
Automotive & Mobility
UniCredit Bank, Munich
Am Eisbach 4 - MRE3CC
80538 Munich
Germany
+49 89 378-13246

Sven Kreitmair is Head of the Credit Research team and, since 2001, has covered both High Grade and High Yield credit in Automobiles & Parts (auto and truck manufacturers, auto suppliers, car rental). He previously covered Industrials. Prior to this, he worked as a credit officer in various loan departments in the corporate banking area. Sven holds a doctorate in business economics from Universität Eichstätt-Ingolstadt and is a CFA charterholder.

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3d728448086b8c7258da821c5d3d33704ecb961618cab899295737683890dccc;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":20225,"publicationDate":"12 Sep 19","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2019_174522.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJB8VAK6fwEQSM5cwDXUhs1U=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Chart of the Week - German car production should pick up","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Chart of the Week","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> This chart shows that the decline in German car production started in 2017 and continued through August 2019. In the last 12 months (LTM) ending August 2019, car production in Germany was down to a level close to that of September 2009, which was during the financial crisis, and is significantly below the peak of roughly 5.7mn units in 2015-17.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> According to the latest available data from VDA, roughly 85% of total car production in Germany was attributable to Germany\u2019s big three automakers, and roughly three quarters of German cars produced were exported. These exports were delivered mainly to other countries in the EU (62%), to Asia and to the US. In 2018 and YTD 2019, domestic light-vehicles sales have declined in western Europe and China. Exports to the UK and Italy, where domestic light vehicle sales have also declined in this period, have accounted for a large portion of exports.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> As illustrated in the chart above, in the last two phases of decline (2008\/09 and 2012\/13), the Ifo automobile-production orders and order-assessment values were early indicators of production growth, and in 2014-17, the lines generally trended closely together. The chart shows that since 4Q18, production has been hit much more than orders. This trend has likely been driven by the WLTP and is explained (presumably) by a run-down of inventories and\/or a build-up of work backlogs.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We think that German car production should pick up. In August 2019, production increased by 0.9% yoy and IFO automobile production orders and order-assessment values improved significantly compared to July, which should be a signal of stabilization and the recovery of production from its current low level. Also, smoothed seasonally adjusted data, such as the 6M moving sum of annualized sa data, which usually front-runs the 12M moving sum, already signaled some stabilization in 1Q19. Moreover, as the production decline started in 2017 and the rate of decline accelerated from August 2018, the yoy-comparison growth-rate numbers are more likely to result in lower yoy-decline rates or even positive growth rates in 4Q19. Nevertheless, the visibility for a significant recovery in production numbers is rather low for the time being.<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"3d728448086b8c7258da821c5d3d33704ecb961618cab899295737683890dccc","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"-1","showcompanies":"-1","showcountries":"-1","showcurrencies":"-1","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"400","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","limit":"1"}}]

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