a758dd3af422a997c29879387b142a7cbbb55acdc2b3508b77437c08c16e11b8;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":28898,"publicationDate":"31 Jan 23","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2023_184545.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJPTZqM8tbM-RpOY-y2SMe_k=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Data Comment - GDP contraction in Austria at year-end 2022 ","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Data Comment","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Following the slowdown in economic growth to 0.2% qoq in 3Q22, the Austrian economy contracted at the end of last year. GDP fell by 0.7% qoq in 4Q22. The main factor was the negative development in the services sector, in particular the significant decline in the trade, transport, accommodation and catering sector. Higher energy costs and their pass-through to goods and services prices led to spending cuts by consumers in real terms. As in the previous quarter, the construction sector experienced a decline again, while industry expanded slightly. <\/li><li> Despite the global economic slowdown and a sharp drop in new orders, Austrian companies were able to increase their exports by 2.9% qoq, thanks in part to the completion and delivery of old orders supported by the easing of supply-chain problems. This resulted in a small positive contribution of net exports to GDP at year-end, as import growth was somewhat lower. On the one hand, the relatively significant increase in investment ensured high import demand, while, on the other hand, import growth was dampened by the sharp decline in consumer demand. Private consumption contracted by 2.4% qoq, the third quarter in a row.<\/li><li> The Austrian economy contracted somewhat more sharply at the end of last year than we originally expected. High inflation, which climbed to an average of 10.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, was particularly harmful to developments in retail trade and tourism. In view of the multiple crises, however, the Austrian economy proved very resilient overall. In particular, the labor market showed positive signs at the turn of the year with the lowest unemployment rate in 15 years. Sentiment indicators also improved slightly toward the end of the year, but the Austrian economy is starting 2023 on a weak footing. Following the decline in GDP in 4Q22, we continue to expect a technical recession over the winter, but there are signs that this is already easing. In detail: With a negative contribution to GDP growth of 0.7 percentage points in 4Q22, the services sector had by far the strongest impact on economic development. The positive contribution from industry of 0.1 percentage points was offset by a similarly high negative contribution from construction.<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Walter","last":"Pudschedl","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&L=&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=58&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=3fd57c090b77786eca006d6117d313af"},{"first":"Stefan","last":"Bruckbauer","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&L=&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=103&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=af53d3daf995c2318755dc3e468357c2"}],"countries":[{"name":"Austria","ticker":"AT","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=country&L=&tx_research_piedition%5Bcountry%5D=16&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=efbbe7292dbde4ead0ac1e0ffba0a524"}],"hash":"a758dd3af422a997c29879387b142a7cbbb55acdc2b3508b77437c08c16e11b8","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"2","showcompanies":"2","showcountries":"2","showcurrencies":"2","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"5"}},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28692,"publicationDate":"17 Nov 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_184258.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJMFJK6gFt5Ic8ChzcuRXBYo=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_184376.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJPMscoAUz340J3iJ4yvVSQI=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Macro & Markets 2023-24 Outlook: Go for carry as central banks approach peak rates","titleDe":"Macro & Markets 2023-24 Outlook - Nutzen Sie die Carry-Ertr\u00e4ge, w\u00e4hrend sich die Zentralbanken ihrem maximalen Leitzins n\u00e4hern","titleIt":"","product":"Macro & Markets","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Macro: <\/strong> We forecast a mild technical recession in both the US and the eurozone, followed by a below-trend recovery. Inflation is set to decelerate meaningfully in 2023. The Fed and the ECB are likely to finish their tightening cycle by early next year and to start cutting rates in 2024.<\/li><li><strong>FI: <\/strong> Long-dated yields are likely to be close to their peaks. Convincing signals that inflation is easing will give central banks a green light to rein in some of the recent tightening, leading to a bull market revival and curve steepening.<\/li><li><strong>FX: <\/strong> The USD is set to further loosen its grip, but its strength is unlikely to be fully reversed. By the end of our forecast horizon, we expect EUR-USD to climb to 1.10-1.12 and we see GBP-USD back above 1.20, USD-JPY below 135 and USD-CNY down to 6.90. We remain bearish on the CEE3 currencies, the TRY and the RUB.<\/li><li><strong>Equities: <\/strong> Following a volatile sideways movement early in the year, equities have potential to rise by about 10% in 2023, primarily supported by valuation expansion. Earnings growth should be flat and is unlikely to accelerate before 2024. Our 2023 year-end index targets are Euro STOXX 50 4200, DAX 15500 and S&amp;P 500 4300 index points.<\/li><li><strong>Credit: <\/strong> We expect a solid year in European credit - both in financials and non-financials - though spread tightening is likely to take place only in 2H23. Lower tiers of the capital structure and high yield are likely to outperform, mainly thanks to high carry. We prefer HY NFI and Bank AT1s over IG seniors.<\/li><li><strong>ESG: <\/strong> Greeniums are set to move sideways or richen moderately as strong demand for ESG assets outpaces new issuance. Policy initiatives and the transforming energy landscape will support interest in the asset class.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p> <\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p> <\/p><\/p>","synopsisDe":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Macro: <\/strong> Wir prognostizieren eine leichte technische Rezession sowohl in den USA als auch in der Eurozone, gefolgt von einer Erholung unterhalb des Trends. Die Inflation d\u00fcrfte sich 2023 deutlich verlangsamen. Die Fed und die EZB werden ihren Straffungszyklus wahrscheinlich Anfang n\u00e4chsten Jahres beenden und 2024 mit Zinssenkungen beginnen.<\/li><li><strong> FI: <\/strong> Die Renditen langfristiger Anleihen befinden sich vermutlich bereits in der N\u00e4he ihres H\u00f6chststands. \u00dcberzeugende Signale, dass die Inflation nachl\u00e4sst, werden den Zentralbanken gr\u00fcnes Licht geben, einen Teil der j\u00fcngsten Straffung zur\u00fcckzunehmen, was zu einer Wiederbelebung des Bullenmarktes und einer Versteilerung der Zinsstrukturkurve f\u00fchren k\u00f6nnte.<\/li><li><strong> FX: <\/strong> Der USD d\u00fcrfte sich weiter abschw\u00e4chen, aber seine St\u00e4rke wird sich wahrscheinlich nicht vollst\u00e4ndig umkehren. Bis zum Ende unseres Prognosehorizonts rechnen wir mit einem Anstieg des EUR-USD auf 1,10-1,12 und erwarten GBP-USD wieder \u00fcber 1,20, den USD-JPY unter 135 und eine Abw\u00e4rtsbewegung bei USD-CNY bis auf 6,90. F\u00fcr die CEE3-W\u00e4hrungen, die TRY und den RUB bleiben wir bearish.<\/li><li><strong> Equities: <\/strong> Nach einer volatilen Seitw\u00e4rtsbewegung zu Beginn des Jahres haben Aktien im Jahr 2023 ein Aufw\u00e4rtspotenzial von rund 10%, was in erster Linie auf eine Ausweitung der Bewertungen zur\u00fcckzuf\u00fchren sein d\u00fcrfte. Das Gewinnwachstum bleibt voraussichtlich sehr niedrig und wird sich vor 2024 kaum beschleunigen. Unsere Indexziele zum Jahresende 2023 liegen f\u00fcr den Euro STOXX 50 bei 4200, f\u00fcr den DAX bei 15500 und f\u00fcr den S&amp;P 500 bei 4300 Indexpunkten.<\/li><li><strong> Credit: <\/strong> Wir erwarten ein solides Jahr f\u00fcr europ\u00e4ische Unternehmensanleihen - sowohl im Finanz- als auch im Nicht-Finanzsektor -, auch wenn die Spread-Einengung wahrscheinlich erst in 2H23 stattfinden wird. Die unteren Ebenen der Kapitalstruktur und High-Yield Anleihen k\u00f6nnten eine Outperformance zeigen, vor allem dank der hohen Carry-Ertr\u00e4ge. Wir bevorzugen High-Yield NFI- und Bank AT1-Anleihen gegen\u00fcber IG Seniors.<\/li><li><strong> ESG: <\/strong> Die Pr\u00e4mien f\u00fcr ESG-Anleihen d\u00fcrften sich seitw\u00e4rts bewegen oder moderat zulegen, da die starke Nachfrage nach ESG-Anlagen die Neuemissionen \u00fcbersteigt. Politische Initiativen und die sich wandelnde Energielandschaft werden das Interesse an der Anlageklasse f\u00f6rdern.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":""},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28616,"publicationDate":"28 Oct 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_184157.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJPO7NAp4CXSy2KIs1p8Q4_g=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Data Comment - Austria\u00b4s 3Q22 GDP: the expected stagnation","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Data Comment","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Strong quarterly economic growth of 1.3% in 1Q22 and 1.9% 2Q22 was followed by the expected marked slowdown in economic activity over the summer. According to the flash estimate by the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Austrian GDP stagnated in 3Q22 (-0.1% qoq). The war in Ukraine, and particularly the resulting sharp rise in energy prices, has weighed on the development of the Austrian economy. Nevertheless, Austrian economic output is currently 3.2% above its pre-pandemic level of 4Q19. <\/li><li> GDP still increased compared to 3Q21, but with a 1.8% increase, it fell far short of the high momentum of the 7.5% yoy growth recorded in the first half of the year, which was characterized by a positive base effect caused by expiring pandemic-related measures. Economic growth was 5.4% yoy in the first three quarters. <\/li><li> The slowdown in economic activity was felt in all sectors of the economy in 3Q22. Construction was the only area to show an improvement, although the 0.2% qoq increase in value added followed a significant 0.5% qoq decline in the previous quarter. The weakening of the global economy was reflected in Austrian manufacturing. The sector\u00b4s value added decreased by 1.4% in real terms in 3Q22, after having contributed strongly to economic growth with an increase of 1.8% in 2Q22. The services sector, which had grown by 2.1% qoq in 2Q22, only stagnated in 3Q22 (-0.1% qoq). This was mainly due to the sharp deterioration in the areas of trade, transport, and accommodation and food services. After the 5.3% qoq increase in these sectors in 2Q22, value added declined by 0.3% qoq in 3Q22, slowed mainly by an unfavorable development in trade and transport, while tourism showed a positive performance over the summer.<\/li><li> On the demand side, the data for 3Q22 show a 0.6% qoq increase in private consumption (2Q22: -0.6% qoq), supported by the good tourism season. After the strong 2.7% qoq increase in 2Q22 due to pandemic-related support measures, public consumption stagnated in 3Q22, after the partial expiration of pandemic-related support. Companies responded to slowing global demand, reflected in a 3.5% qoq decline in exports (2Q22: +5.8%), with a renewed decrease in investment activity of 0.3% qoq (2Q22: -1.3%), spurred by the significant deterioration in the economic outlook.<\/li><li> The 3Q22 data clearly show the consequences of the war in Ukraine for the Austrian economy for the first time. The recovery has come to a standstill. While consumption development was still relatively favorable despite the loss of purchasing power due to high inflation as a result of catch-up effects in tourism, increasing concerns about the economy and the significant rise in costs have led to a sustained decline in business investment. The slowdown in the global economy had a negative impact on the export-oriented Austrian economy and is further dampening sentiment. The UniCredit Bank Austria Purchasing Managers\u00b4 Index for the manufacturing industry fell to 46.6 points in October. Rising input prices, especially for energy, higher financing costs and weakening demand have also reduced output expectations to their lowest level since the peak of the coronavirus crisis in spring 2020. Domestic industry is already in recession. The outlook for the construction industry and services is still somewhat more favorable according to the WIFO business climate index, but even here sentiment has also already deteriorated significantly. We expect a recession in the Austrian economy over the winter months. Due to the strong first half of the year, GDP will grow by around 5% in 2022 as a whole but will only stagnate in 2023. With inflation remaining high in 2023, Austria\u00b4s economy is heading for stagflation for the first time since the 1970s. <\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Walter","last":"Pudschedl","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&L=&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=58&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=3fd57c090b77786eca006d6117d313af"},{"first":"Stefan","last":"Bruckbauer","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&L=&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=103&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=af53d3daf995c2318755dc3e468357c2"}],"countries":[{"name":"Austria","ticker":"AT","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=country&L=&tx_research_piedition%5Bcountry%5D=16&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=efbbe7292dbde4ead0ac1e0ffba0a524"}]},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28500,"publicationDate":"28 Sep 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_184012.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJKZXH2GAVJvL78LWAPe4_o0=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Economics Chartbook - Central banks\u00b4 inflation fight raises recession odds (4Q22)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"The Unicredit Economics Chartbook","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Global: <\/strong> The growth outlook is deteriorating. After likely subdued growth of 2.7% this year, we forecast global GDP rising by only 1.9% next year. The weakening reflects tighter financial conditions, surging energy bills in Europe and reduced economic momentum across the US, Europe, and China. The manufacturing sector is under pressure, the boost to services from the reopening of the economy is fading, and consumer confidence is low. Supply constraints have eased but remain elevated compared to before the pandemic. High excess savings and the tight labor market should mean any recession is mild. We expect global inflation to ease next year amid negative base effects, lower demand, a further easing of supply constraints and lower commodities prices. The risks to growth are to the downside as central banks prioritize fighting inflation.<\/li><li><strong>US: <\/strong> We forecast GDP growth of 1.5% this year and -0.1% next year (previously +0.1%), with the economy teetering on the edge of recession. The weakness is concentrated in interest-rate-sensitive sectors, notably housing and durable goods. Monthly headline inflation will likely ease sustainably to levels consistent with the 2% target from the spring, while core inflation is likely to take longer to do so. The midterm elections seem likely to result in political gridlock. We now see the Fed raising interest rates to a peak of 4.50-4.75% (previously 3.75-4.00%) by early next year, followed by a first rate cut in late 2023.<\/li><li><strong>Eurozone: <\/strong> GDP growth is likely to average 3.1% this year and come to a standstill in 2023 (0.2%). The latest survey indicators point to a recession at the turn of the year, in line with our baseline scenario. Inflation is likely to hover at around 10% for the remainder of the year, before entering a downward trajectory that would take it towards 2.5% by the end of 2023. We are raising our forecast for the peak level of the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.25%, to be reached in 1Q23. As policy rates rise towards, or above, the upper end of the neutrality range, the ECB is likely to start looking at quantitative tightening (QT) as its next policy step.<\/li><li><strong>CEE: <\/strong> We forecast GDP growth to slow from 4.3% in 2022 to 0.8% in 2023 in EU-CEE and from 5.5% in 2022 to 3.2% in 2023 in Turkey. In Russia, we expect the economy to shrink by around 5% this year and 4% in 2023. We believe that CEE can avoid an energy crisis, but not a technical recession in 4Q22-1Q23 due to high energy prices, circumspect consumers, negative credit and fiscal impulses, destocking, imports outpacing exports, low EU fund inflows and falling public investment. A gradual recovery is possible in 2H23. Inflation is likely to peak this winter in all CEE countries and to remain well above target in 2023. We expect tightening cycles to end at 13% in Hungary, 7% in Czechia and Poland, 6% in Romania and 5% in Serbia. The CBRT is likely to cut its policy rate to single digits and the CBR to 7%. FX interventions will likely continue in Czechia, Poland, Romania, Serbia and Turkey.<\/li><li><strong>UK: <\/strong> We are revising our GDP growth forecasts down slightly to 3.3% for this year (previously 3.5%), and to -0.3% for next year (previously -0.1%). The economy is likely already in recession. The energy price cap means inflation will probably peak at just under 11% in October. Large and poorly targeted fiscal easing at a time of constrained supply will likely force the BoE to hike the bank rate sharply to 4.50% (previously 2.50%).<\/li><li><strong>China: <\/strong> We are reducing our GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 2.0% from 2.4%, and for 2023 to 3.4% from 4.0%. The combination of power shortages, sporadic lockdowns and a real estate sector in disarray is weighing on economic activity. However, contained inflationary pressure, both on the producer and consumer front, is allowing the government to use its monetary and fiscal policy levers to support the economy ahead of the party congress that will likely elevate Xi Jinping to a third term as president of the country. After hitting new lows since 2008, the CNY is set to remain weak against the USD, beyond 7.20.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":""},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28342,"publicationDate":"29 Jul 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_183818.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJAK3tdK5Bz781MPRlKGGdVs=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Data Comment - Austria\u2019s 2Q22 GDP: growth slowed but was still quite strong","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Data Comment","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> According to the flash estimate published by the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Austrian GDP grew by 0.5% qoq in 2Q22. Despite the burdens caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Austrian economy remained on a growth track. Compared to 1Q22, when growth of 1.5% qoq was recorded, supported by the easing of the pandemic measures, growth slowed considerably, as expected. Compared to 2Q21, GDP rose by 4.7%, resulting in growth of 6.5% yoy for the first half of 2022. Austrian GDP is now 2.1% above its pre-crisis level of 4Q19. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The slowdown in growth was noticeable in all sectors of the economy. The services sector, which had grown by 2.2% qoq at the beginning of the year, grew by 0.5% qoq in 2Q22. Strong growth impulses came from other services, which include personal services, arts, entertainment and recreation. Here, value added rose by 2.8% qoq. The value added of other business services, such as the provision of professional or technical services, rose by 1.1% qoq. In both cases, development was supported by positive base effects due to the expiration of health-policy measures. This also applies, above all, to value added in accommodation and food services, which increased particularly significantly and thus ensured a slightly positive result of 0.1% qoq in the combined area of trade, transport, accommodation and food services, despite a decline in trade. In addition to increases in the service sectors, solid development in industry also contributed to growth. Value added in industry rose by 0.7% qoq in 2Q22 (1Q22: 1.1% qoq), while construction showed a significant slowdown in growth, to 0.1% qoq, down from 1.6% qoq in 1Q22. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> On the demand side, the data for 1Q22 show a decline in private consumption of 1.9% qoq (1Q22: +0.8% qoq), analogous to the decline in trade. Despite good development in the labor market, with record employment, increased uncertainty due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and high price dynamics massively curbed consumer sentiment. After a strong decline in the previous quarter, there was also no expansion of public consumption in 2Q22, after the partial expiration of pandemic-related support. Investment activity, on the other hand, continued to perform positively. Gross fixed-capital formation rose by 1.2% qoq, only slightly weaker than in 1Q22 (+1.6% qoq). Foreign trade also made a positive contribution to growth. Export growth accelerated to 2.7% qoq (1Q22: + 2.3%), while import growth slowed to 0.5% qoq (1Q22: +3.7% qoq). <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The data for 2Q22 show the first negative consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict for the Austrian economy. Growth weakened significantly, in particular due to a sharp decline in consumption as a result of the loss of purchasing power due to increased inflation. The continued rise in inflation, according to the latest flash estimate by Statistics Austria \u2013 to as much as 9.2% year-on-year in July \u2013 should further weigh on consumer spending, and higher costs will reduce willingness to invest. Not only has the WIFO\u2019s business-climate index for the services sector deteriorated significantly in recent months, but sentiment in the construction and industrial sectors has also declined markedly. The future output index in the survey of Austrian purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry has meanwhile fallen below the growth threshold. Ongoing supply-chain problems and high price dynamics, combined with uncertainty caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, will lead to a further weakening of economic activity in Austria in the second half of the year, with an increasing risk of recession. <\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Walter","last":"Pudschedl","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&L=&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=58&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=3fd57c090b77786eca006d6117d313af"},{"first":"Stefan","last":"Bruckbauer","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&L=&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=103&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=af53d3daf995c2318755dc3e468357c2"}]}]