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Francesco Maria Di Bella
FI Strategist
UniCredit Bank, Milan
Piazza Gae Aulenti, 4 - Tower C - MRE6R
I-20154 Milan
Italy
+39 02 8862-0850

 

Francesco Maria Di Bella is a Fixed Income Strategist and he is based in Milan. After short experiences in other European banks, he joined UniCredit Research in September 2018. Francesco holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics and Finance and a Master of Science in Finance (with major in Quantitative Finance) from Bocconi University.

Latest contribution

dc56032f80e00fa3d28fa9268476cfffe601f60662b3afca2f5c10c7d564c668;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":25468,"publicationDate":"07 Jun 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2021_180333.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVCsY1pNwWYpSfk0SvE3S76oaIky_YUON5g==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Rates Perspectives - Declining inflation risk premium likely to drive eurozone breakeven rates lower in the medium term","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Rates Perspectives","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Breakeven rates have recently increased in the US and in the eurozone and have become a hot topic. While a brighter growth outlook and mounting inflation expectations, together with the Fed\u00b4s new average inflation targeting, help to explain the increase in breakeven rates in the US, we find the increase in breakeven rates in the eurozone to be less in line with macro fundamentals and the inflation outlook. <\/li><li> We estimate the inflation risk premium in the eurozone and we find that it has contributed to the rise in breakeven rates in the eurozone in the past few months.<\/li><li> We also show that the recent increase in the inflation risk premium in the eurozone has little to do with idiosyncratic factors and more to do with the same phenomenon in the US. For this reason, its increase looks vulnerable to a reversal. <\/li><li> Moreover, with the medium\/long-term inflation outlook in the eurozone remaining rather subdued, medium-term inflation expectations are unlikely to improve further. We would therefore use any increase in eurozone breakeven in the next few months (due to a temporary increase in headline inflation) to enter short positions on linkers vs. long in nominal bonds with a medium-term horizon. <\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"dc56032f80e00fa3d28fa9268476cfffe601f60662b3afca2f5c10c7d564c668","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"-1","showcompanies":"-1","showcountries":"-1","showcurrencies":"-1","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"400","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","limit":"1"}}]

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