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3a8810e7a23e6189f26ac081dac07d1b329945c9e365d2836b032a76a2bea9b2;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":27097,"publicationDate":"27 Jan 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/credit_docs_2022_182267.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=n03ZZLYZf5lxr16FMWlYU56goO5q84Cz70WgKiBxjJQ=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Pr\u00e4sentation zum UniCredit Webcast: Der Schuldscheinmarkt - Trends, ESG Fokus and 2022 Ausblick","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Marketing Material","synopsis":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\">Kreditvergabe von europ\u00e4ischen und deutschen Banken in 2021 und Ausblick auf 2022<\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\">Review Schuldscheinmarkt 2021 und Ausblick auf 2022<\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><strong>Nachhaltige Schuldscheine: <\/strong> Trends in 2021 und Ausblick auf 2022<\/p>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Silke","last":"Stegemann","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=6&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=c764c08c584fb3213791b7279ad01746"},{"first":"Michael","last":"Teig","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=134&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=c1120f672be4da5652fa3a3a629f6ad4"}],"hash":"3a8810e7a23e6189f26ac081dac07d1b329945c9e365d2836b032a76a2bea9b2","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"2","showcompanies":"2","showcountries":"2","showcurrencies":"2","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"5"}},{"layout":"detailed","uid":26342,"publicationDate":"08 Oct 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/credit_docs_9999_181344.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=n03ZZLYZf5miJJA2_uTR8rBnY-BeGO9Goy4OF1adROY=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/credit_docs_9999_181327.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=n03ZZLYZf5miJJA2_uTR8nz0d7DTd3m65t9xaleHD68=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Sector Flash - Corporate Schuldschein Loans: 3Q21 shows growth and record sustainability (English version)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Credit Sector Flash","synopsis":"<p>Translation of the original German version from 7 October 2021<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>As we expected, there was a significant recovery in 3Q21 compared to the same quarter in the prior year. The volume of new corporate Schuldschein loans (SSD) in the first nine months of 2021 was below that recorded in the same period st year. In the year to date, lower supply, combined with high demand, has led to significant oversubscription and to an increase in marketing volume. <\/li><li>All three quarters of 2021 so far have been record quarters for sustainable corporate SSD (especially environmental, social and governance [ESG] linked SSD). In particular, there was an increase in ESG-linked transactions with key performance indicators (KPIs) in 9M21. Sustainable corporate SSD are expected to be headed for a record year in 2021. We believe a market share of just under 30% is possible. <\/li><li>After a weaker 9M21, UniCredit Research has lowered its estimated issuance volume from EUR 18bn to EUR 17bn (closing date). However, according to our database, more transactions were in the marketing phase in September; so, we expect a further recovery in 4Q21. We assume that more debut issuers and international issuers will return to the SSD market. <\/li><li><strong>Bank lending: <\/strong> Banks are becoming increasingly confident about lending, but with greater differentiation in lending standards across sectors. Lending standards were slightly relaxed in 2Q21, and banking sectors are especially being viewed more positively. There are no sectors that are generally excluded from financing, but individual risk assessments are being given greater weight.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Silke","last":"Stegemann","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=6&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=c764c08c584fb3213791b7279ad01746"},{"first":"Michael","last":"Teig","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=134&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=c1120f672be4da5652fa3a3a629f6ad4"}],"countries":[{"name":"Germany","ticker":"DE","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcountry%5D=9&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=b98f1916ef68c367defade63b875243d"}]},{"layout":"detailed","uid":26279,"publicationDate":"01 Oct 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_181271.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJONVgIeo7x-ZTlTvkxSSOWI=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Chart of the Week - Italian banks\u00b4 NPL ratio falls below the 2008 level, with manageable NPL inflows ahead","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Chart of the Week","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Non-performing loan (NPL) data as of 30 June 2021 show that the gross NPL ratio of Italian banks declined to 5.0% from 5.3% as of end-1Q21. This is the lowest gross NPL ratio of the Italian banking system since the end of 2008 (5.3%), but still above the EU average of around 2.5%. In nominal terms, Italian banks have reduced their NPL stock significantly, from EUR 341bn in 2015 to EUR 96bn. <\/li><li> The impressive reduction was driven by NPL offloading measures by banks supported by Italian government guarantees on senior tranches of NPL securitizations (GACS). More than EUR 90bn of gross NPL reductions were done with the support of GACS and the framework has been extended until mid-2022 with several deals in the pipeline.<\/li><li> In our view, another big driver of the swift asset quality clean-up was the start of the ECB Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) in 2014. The ECB SSM improved the institutional setup and made EU bank supervision more independent of politics. The ECB SSM increased regulatory pressure to quickly restore asset quality. <\/li><li> The NPL stock continued to decline even after the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 and did not increase in 1H21. The two main direct drivers of this resilient picture are loan moratoriums and government guarantee schemes for new bank loans to corporates. Sizeable government support for the real economy also supported the asset quality. <\/li><li> As of September 2021, EUR 69bn of bank loans in Italy are still in moratorium, down by 75% from EUR 280bn in March 2020. Of the EUR 69bn, 80% are related to loans to corporates. Moratoriums on loans in Italy were extended until the end of 2021. As of 31 March 2021, 34.4% of loans in moratorium are classified as stage 2 and 2.2% as stage 3 and there is asset quality pressure ahead for 2022, when moratoriums will phased out.<\/li><li> Assuming 30% of loans in moratorium will eventually migrate into the NPL stock, this would lead to a manageable NPL stock increase of around EUR 21bn. This would increase the NPL ratio by 1.2pp, from 5.0% to 6.2%, still below the level at the end of 2019 (7.2%).<\/li><li> One has to consider the increasing stock of corporate loans in Italy under public guarantee scheme. The volume of guaranteed loans increased to EUR 100bn as of 31 March 2021 (more than 13% of all outstanding Italian corporate bank loans). Adverse selection is at play here and the average credit quality of the borrowers using public guarantees is weaker than average. But the guarantees are long-term with 72% of the volume having a residual maturity above 5 years and 24% of 2-5 years. This is more a medium-term driver for NPL increases, however.<\/li><li> In a nutshell, the Italian banking sector achieved massive NPL stock offloading in recent years. While NPL offloading is still in the pipeline in 2H21, we see a reversal of the trend from 2022, with moderate, but manageable, NPL increases. <\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Michael","last":"Teig","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=134&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=c1120f672be4da5652fa3a3a629f6ad4"}]},{"layout":"detailed","uid":25822,"publicationDate":"14 Jul 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/credit_docs_9999_180712.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=n03ZZLYZf5miJJA2_uTR8i6BBYr_YDtFbNi7Wqp0tt8=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/credit_docs_9999_180667.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=n03ZZLYZf5miJJA2_uTR8hOoVgkd1nQ3lZ4prY0o_FQ=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Sector Report - Corporate Schuldschein loans: 1H21 - record half for ESG-linked notes (English version)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Credit Sector Report","synopsis":"<p>Translation of the original German version, published on 9 July 2021<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>The transaction volume in the Schuldschein market in the first half of 2021 was lower than in the same period of the previous year. According to our calculations, the issuance volume of corporate Schuldschein loans (SSD) was approximately EUR 7.8bn in the first half of 2021 (closing date, 1H20: EUR 10.2bn). There were 54 SSD issues in 1H21, slightly less than in the first half of last year (60). In 1H21, issuers from European countries outside Germany increasingly returned to the SSD market. 1H21 was a record half-year for the sustainable SSD market (especially ESG-linked) ' almost 75% of 2020\u00b4s full year volume was achieved in the first half of 2021. In 1H21, the market share (volume) of sustainable SSDs in the overall Schuldschein market was 26% (1H20: 20%, 2020: 13%, 2019: 10%). <\/li><li>After a somewhat weaker 1H21, UniCredit Research has lowered its estimated issuance volume for the corporate Schuldschein loan market in 2021 from EUR 20bn to EUR 18bn (closing date). However, according to our database, more transactions were in the marketing phase in June, so we expect a further recovery in 2H21. We assume that there will be more debut issuers and more international issuers will return to the SSD market. SSD issuance volume in 2021 will also be driven by expectations of rising interest rates, in our view. Sustainable corporate Schuldschein loans are likely heading for a record year in 2021. We estimate that their market share will continue to grow steadily and forecast a share of more than 30% of the total SSD market by volume in 2021. <\/li><li>Banks are becoming more confident about lending, with a greater differentiation of credit standards across sectors. Lending standards were only tightened slightly in 1Q21 after a more pronounced tightening in 2020. No sectors are completely excluded from financing, but the individual risk assessment is being given greater weight and the viability of business models plays an important role. The extension of KfW guarantees until the end of 2021 and an extension of regulatory relief for banks are having a supportive effect on lending.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Silke","last":"Stegemann","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=6&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=c764c08c584fb3213791b7279ad01746"},{"first":"Michael","last":"Teig","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=134&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=c1120f672be4da5652fa3a3a629f6ad4"}],"countries":[{"name":"Germany","ticker":"DE","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcountry%5D=9&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=b98f1916ef68c367defade63b875243d"}]},{"layout":"detailed","uid":25160,"publicationDate":"28 Apr 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/credit_docs_9999_179977.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=n03ZZLYZf5miJJA2_uTR8mNM11ZgAIf5AmbAa5lEKd8=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/credit_docs_9999_179913.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=n03ZZLYZf5miJJA2_uTR8m--cWtJd_N_4f4MX6p0L5Y=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Sector Flash - Corporate Schuldschein loans: 1Q21 - A record quarter for ESG-linked notes (English version)","titleDe":"Sector Flash - Unternehmens-Schuldscheindarlehen: 1Q21 - Ein Rekordquartal f\u00fcr ESG-gelinkte Schuldscheine (German version)","titleIt":"","product":"Credit Sector Flash","synopsis":"<p>Translation of the original German version, published on 22 April 2021.<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>The volume of new corporate Schuldschein loan (SSD) transactions in the first quarter of 2021 was below the level of the prior-year quarter but still close to the level in the first quarter of 2019.<\/li><li>1Q21 was a record quarter for sustainable corporate Schuldschein loans (ESG-linked) with 50% of the 2020 volume having been achieved already. We expect this encouraging trend to continue during the year.<\/li><li>Foreign issuers have returned to the SSD market. Most transactions were carried out again by issuers without a rating from S&amp;P, Moody\u00b4s or Fitch.<\/li><li>UniCredit Research expects Schuldschein issues to amount to around EUR 20bn in 2021 (based on the closing date). Sustainable corporate Schuldschein loans are expected to be headed for a record year (market share of almost 30% possible). <\/li><li><strong>Bank lending: <\/strong> The recent results of the ECB\u00b4s 1Q21 lending survey showed a slight tightening of lending standards to businesses in 1Q21. Corporate demand for loans remained subdued in 1Q21, with more banks reporting a net decline in loans. In terms of individual sectors, the aggregate performance of banks\u00b4 internal ratings provides a good indication. Over the past six months, banks\u00b4 internal rating assessments for cyclical sectors have improved.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"<p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Das Transaktionsvolumen mit neuen Schuldschein-darlehen (SSD) lag im ersten Quartal 2021 unterhalb des Vorjahresquartals aber noch ann\u00e4hernd auf dem Niveau des ersten Quartals 2019.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> 1Q21 Rekordquartal f\u00fcr nachhaltige Schuldscheine (ESG-gelinkt) \u2013 schon 50% des Volumens von 2020 erreicht. Wir erwarten, dass sich dieser erfreuliche Trend im weiteren Verlauf von 2021 fortsetzen wird.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Es kehrten wieder verst\u00e4rkt ausl\u00e4ndische Emittenten an den SSD-Markt zur\u00fcck. Die meisten Transaktionen erfolgten wieder von Emittenten ohne Rating von S&amp;P, Moody\u2019s oder Fitch.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> UniCredit Research erwartet in 2021 Schuldschein Emissionen von knapp EUR 20 Mrd. (Basis Abschlussstichtag). Die nachhaltigen Schuldscheine d\u00fcrften auf ein Rekordjahr zusteuern (Marktanteil von knapp 30% m\u00f6glich).<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Kreditvergabe von Banken: <\/strong> Die Ergebnisse der EZB Umfrage zum Kreditgesch\u00e4ft zeigten im ersten Quartal 2021 eine leichte Versch\u00e4rfung der Kreditvergabestandards an Unternehmen. Die Nachfrage von Unternehmen nach Krediten war in 1Q21 weiterhin verhalten und mehr Banken vermeldeten einen Nettor\u00fcckgang nach Krediten. Hinsichtlich einzelner Sektoren gibt die aggregierte Entwicklung der internen Ratings von Banken eine gute Indikation. In den letzten sechs Monaten verbesserte sich die interne Ratingeinsch\u00e4tzung der Banken f\u00fcr zyklische Sektoren.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Silke","last":"Stegemann","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=6&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=c764c08c584fb3213791b7279ad01746"},{"first":"Michael","last":"Teig","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=134&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=c1120f672be4da5652fa3a3a629f6ad4"}],"companies":[{"name":"Lufthansa","link":""},{"name":"Traton","link":""}]}]

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Dr. Michael Teig
Credit Strategist - Financials
UniCredit Bank AG, Munich
Am Eisbach 4 -
80538 Munich
Germany
+49 89 378-12429

Dr. Michael Teig is Deputy Head of UniCredit's Financials Credit Research and a senior credit analyst focusing on European banks. Before joining UniCredit, Michael worked in the credit ri...

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