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6166fffc422402db9f852496273d1608143206dfd4b75fea75b40e4a9e1f8a8f;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":29057,"publicationDate":"14 Mar 23","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2023_184757.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJGlpiFwyM1XCV-7a2prYIME=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Data Comment - US CPI: core inflation moving in the wrong direction ","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Data Comment","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The January CPI report was not the blip that many had hoped for, with consumer inflation rising strongly in February too. Headline CPI inflation was unchanged (and still high) at 0.4% mom, which translated into a 6.0% yoy increase (from 6.4%). The headline figure benefited from a 0.6% mom drop in the energy component, with the natural gas index leading the way with the largest one-month decrease since October 2006. The food index, instead, increased 0.4% mom.<\/li><li> However, it is core inflation that represents the greatest source of concern. Core consumer prices continued to head in the wrong direction, recording the second straight month of acceleration. Core inflation climbed to 0.5% mom from 0.4%, which in yearly terms translated into a meager 0.1pp deceleration to 5.5% yoy. While core-goods prices were flat (largely due to another large fall in used car prices) after rising in January, core-service inflation continued to trend higher, rising 0.6% mom (or 7.3% yoy, the highest pace since 1982). <\/li><li> Housing prices were the main contributor to the price increase in February, with shelter rising 0.8% mom (up from 0.7%). As we argued in previous notes, shelter prices are likely to decelerate in the coming months given that private surveys of new rents are falling. But attention should be focused on core services excluding housing, which is the key variable to gauge signs of durable disinflation as this category is sensitive to domestic labor-market tightness. Price inflation of this category accelerated to 0.6% mom in February, up from 0.4% mom in the prior month. Both prices for transportation services and recreational activities rose above 1.0% mom. The main drag came from health insurance prices, which dropped 4.1% mom ' mainly due to a statistical technicality that does not affect the PCE deflator that is due to be released later this month. <\/li><li> These price dynamics are especially concerning when thinking about the path for the core PCE deflator ' the Fed\u00b4s preferred measure of inflation. Core-services inflation excluding shelter accounts for about 55% of the PCE basket as opposed to around 30% for the CPI one. Disinflation ahead driven by rents will be much less pronounced in the PCE readings than in the CPI.<\/li><li> At a time of market turmoil, today\u00b4s CPI reading complicates the job for the Fed, which must perform a complicated balancing act between bringing inflation down and preserving the stability of the banking system. Last week, during his testimony before Congress, Fed Chair Jay Powell said the central bank was 'prepared' to accelerate the pace of rate hikes at its 21-22 March meeting if the 'totality' of the data warranted it. Today\u00b4s strong CPI report, combined with the mixed February employment report, might well have tipped the balance in favor of a 50bp hike. However, the stress in the banking system has clearly changed the balance of risks in favor of a more prudent approach. We stick to our view that the Fed will hike rates by 25bp next week. This is in line with market expectations. More in detail: Chart 1 shows that the disinflation process for core CPI inflation in year-on-year terms is progressing at a slow pace. CHART 1. CORE CPI INFLATION GETTING STICKY<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Edoardo","last":"Campanella","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=21&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=74c2d76d6c9952be40cf5647d027b739"}],"countries":[{"name":"United States","ticker":"US","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcountry%5D=42&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=7bc8e05d14fb73ad6fbafeda31d249b7"}],"hash":"6166fffc422402db9f852496273d1608143206dfd4b75fea75b40e4a9e1f8a8f","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"2","showcompanies":"2","showcountries":"2","showcurrencies":"2","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"5"}},{"layout":"detailed","uid":29032,"publicationDate":"07 Mar 23","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2023_184727.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJGlpiFwyM1XCZFt1WimMIq0=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Chart of the Week - The Fed\u00b4s inflation dilemma","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Chart of the Week","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee to deliver the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. The testimony will be an opportunity for him to clarify how the thinking among FOMC members has changed since their meeting back in early February, when policy rates were raised by 25bp and the overall communication was less hawkish than before in the wake of a disinflation process that looked to be well on track. In the timespan of a few weeks, all the key activity, employment and inflation-related data have surprised to the upside, triggering a rise in the market-implied path for the federal funds rate, by around 50bp to 5.5% in six months\u00b4 time. <\/li><li>Our Chart of the Week shows that different measures of PCE inflation, which is the measure the Fed targets, indicate that the disinflation process still has a long way to go. Besides the sharp reacceleration in January, the 3-month and 12-month trimmed measure, which smooth out the PCE indicator across both categories and time, has stabilized at around 5% for the last six months ' more than twice as much as the inflation goal. Moreover, as we discussed in our Data Comment ' US CPI: Disinflation hit pause button in January, 14 February, core PCE inflation will likely prove to be stickier than its CPI counterpart over the next few months, due to the different weights used to build the two indicators, with the weight of core services excluding housing much larger in the PCE basket than in the CPI basket. The Fed is particularly focused on this component because wages account for a large share of these service providers\u00b4 costs. <\/li><li>During his testimony, Mr. Powell will likely say that further rate rises are appropriate and that, if the data were to continue to surprise to the upside, then rates would likely have to rise by more than the Fed previously expected. The upcoming payroll and CPI figures will probably determine whether the Fed hikes by another 25bp or 50bp at its upcoming 21-22 March meeting. We think the bar for reaccelerating the pace of rate hikes is high, given that the Fed only recently stepped down the pace and, in the current view of most Fed members, the peak for rates is not far away.<\/li><li>At the moment, we expect the Fed to hike two more times, by 25bp in March and May, and to remain on hold for the rest of the year as the effects of cumulative monetary tightening make their way through the economy. However, given the degree of uncertainty, there are clear upside risks to our forecast. If the March releases come in solid but show signs of cooling activity, then we think that the Fed will opt for a more cautious approach. In contrast, if they point to a reacceleration in price and wage dynamics, then the Fed could act boldly at its March meeting, hiking by 50bp and pointing to a higher terminal rate.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Edoardo","last":"Campanella","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=21&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=74c2d76d6c9952be40cf5647d027b739"}],"countries":[{"name":"United States","ticker":"US","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcountry%5D=42&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=7bc8e05d14fb73ad6fbafeda31d249b7"}]},{"layout":"detailed","uid":29010,"publicationDate":"02 Mar 23","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2023_184704.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJGlpiFwyM1XC3SZir3Nkg9M=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2023_184708.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJGlpiFwyM1XCAD0-SJpFTTU=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2023_184707.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJGlpiFwyM1XC91QxuqklWck=&T=1&T=1"},"title":"Natural Gas Update - Why natural gas prices in Europe are likely to go up again","titleDe":"Natural Gas Update - Warum die Erdgaspreise in Europa wahrscheinlich wieder steigen werden","titleIt":"Natural Gas Update - Perch\u00e9 i prezzi del gas naturale in Europa sono destinati a salire di nuovo","product":"Natural Gas Update","synopsis":"<p>We are launching the Natural Gas Update, a new thematic publication about the European gas market. <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Thanks to a combination of energy-saving measures and mild weather, the consumption of natural gas has so far been exceptionally contained across Europe, creating an unprecedented storage buffer that has contributed to bringing the TTF price down by around 85% from its summer peak. <\/li><li>For next winter, the market seems to be pricing in a scenario where Europe manages to keep its gas consumption at the low levels recorded in 2022. In such a scenario, current domestic production and imports will likely be enough to balance the market and so TTF prices might stabilize at around EUR 50\/MWh. <\/li><li>With lower consumption cuts, instead, Europe will need to secure more imports of LNG, which is in short supply. And the situation could become more complex if there were a complete halt of imports of Russian gas. <\/li><li>Overall, it is more likely than not that gas prices will rise from current levels. We expect TTF prices to average EUR 80-90MWh in 2H23.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"\u00dcbersetzung der englischen Originalversion vom 2.M\u00e4rz 2023Wir bringen das Natural Gas Update auf den Markt, eine neue thematische Ver\u00f6ffentlichung \u00fcber den europ\u00e4ischen Gasmarkt. <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Dank einer Kombination aus Energiesparma\u00dfnahmen und milder Witterung hat sich der Erdgasverbrauch in ganz Europa bisher au\u00dfergew\u00f6hnlich in Grenzen gehalten, so dass ein noch nie dagewesener Speicherpuffer entstanden ist, der dazu beigetragen hat, dass der TTF-Preis gegen\u00fcber seinem H\u00f6chststand im Sommer um rund 85% gesunken ist. <\/li><li> F\u00fcr den n\u00e4chsten Winter scheint der Markt ein Szenario einzupreisen, bei dem es Europa gelingt, seinen Gasverbrauch auf dem niedrigen Niveau von 2022 zu halten. In einem solchen Szenario werden die derzeitige inl\u00e4ndische Produktion und die Importe wahrscheinlich ausreichen, um den Markt auszugleichen, so dass sich die TTF-Preise bei etwa 50 EUR\/MWh stabilisieren k\u00f6nnten.<\/li><li> Bei geringeren Verbrauchsk\u00fcrzungen wird Europa stattdessen mehr Einfuhren von LNG sicherstellen m\u00fcssen, das knapp ist. Und die Situation k\u00f6nnte noch komplizierter werden, wenn die Einfuhren von russischem Gas vollst\u00e4ndig eingestellt w\u00fcrden. <\/li><li> Insgesamt ist es eher wahrscheinlich als unwahrscheinlich, dass die Gaspreise gegen\u00fcber dem derzeitigen Niveau steigen werden. Wir erwarten, dass die TTF-Preise in 2H23 durchschnittlich 80-90 EUR\/MWh betragen werden. Der TTF-Preis, die europ\u00e4ische Erdgas-Benchmark, ist um mehr als 85% auf weniger als 50 EUR\/MWh gefallen, nachdem er im August letzten Jahres einen H\u00f6chststand von rund 340 EUR\/MWh erreicht hatte. Terminkontrakte deuten darauf hin, dass sich die Preise in den Jahren 2023 und 2024 in etwa auf dem derzeitigen Niveau stabilisieren werden. Ein au\u00dfergew\u00f6hnlich milder Winter in Verbindung mit einer gut durchdachten Strategie der Angebotsdiversifizierung und Ma\u00dfnahmen zur Verbrauchsreduzierung hat zu einer ungenutzten Speicherkapazit\u00e4t von rund 64% gef\u00fchrt, die mehr als 10 Prozentpunkte \u00fcber dem historischen Durchschnitt f\u00fcr diese Jahreszeit liegt. W\u00e4hrend Europa einigerma\u00dfen aufatmen kann, werden die Gaspreise in den kommenden Monaten wahrscheinlich wieder steigen, m\u00f6glicherweise sogar deutlich. Russisches Gas ist nach wie vor wichtig, um den europ\u00e4ischen Markt auszugleichen, egal wie gering die Zufl\u00fcsse im Vergleich zu fr\u00fcher sind (etwa 20% des Niveaus vor dem Konflikt) - und im letzten Jahr sind sie allm\u00e4hlich zur\u00fcckgegangen, wobei sie in 1H22 immer noch einen wichtigen Puffer darstellen. Sollte russisches Gas weiterhin in dem derzeitigen Umfang einstr\u00f6men, m\u00fcsste Europa m\u00f6glicherweise mehr LNG-Lieferungen auf einem Markt sichern, der mit der Erholung der asiatischen Nachfrage wahrscheinlich immer enger wird. Sollten die Importe von russischem Gas vollst\u00e4ndig eingestellt werden, w\u00e4re die ben\u00f6tigte LNG-Menge noch h\u00f6her und w\u00fcrde wahrscheinlich die europ\u00e4ischen Regasifizierungskapazit\u00e4ten \u00fcbersteigen. Dar\u00fcber hinaus besteht die Gefahr, dass die positiven Erfahrungen des aktuellen Winters in Verbindung mit den heute niedrigeren Preisen die Bem\u00fchungen der europ\u00e4ischen Haushalte und Unternehmen um eine Senkung des Verbrauchs verringern k\u00f6nnten (die ersten Verbrauchssenkungen sind am einfachsten, w\u00e4hrend zus\u00e4tzliche Senkungen mit sinkendem Energieverbrauch immer schwieriger werden). Aus diesem Grund sollte die Erholung nicht zur Sorglosigkeit verleiten. Es besteht die Gefahr, dass sich die Marktknappheit gegen Ende des Sommers wieder bemerkbar macht und die Preise in die H\u00f6he treibt. Im Folgenden f\u00fchren wir eine einfache Szenarioanalyse durch, um m\u00f6gliche Schwachstellen aufzuzeigen. Wir zeigen, dass Europa trotz des positiven Puffers aus den heutigen hohen Lagerbest\u00e4nden russisches Gas, mehr LNG-Lieferungen und Verbrauchsk\u00fcrzungen ben\u00f6tigen wird, um seinen Bedarf im n\u00e4chsten Winter zu decken, vorausgesetzt, die Temperaturen normalisieren sich. Dennoch k\u00f6nnte sich der TTF-Preis im Sommer, wenn die Speicher wieder aufgef\u00fcllt werden, in Richtung 100 EUR\/MWh bewegen. Ohne russisches Gas wird der Preis wahrscheinlich \u00fcber dieses Niveau hinausgehen, wenngleich er vermutlich deutlich unter 200 EUR\/MWh liegen d\u00fcrfte.Derzeitige SituationIm Gro\u00dfen und Ganzen werden vier Variablen ben\u00f6tigt, um die Entwicklung des europ\u00e4ischen Gasmarktes zu verfolgen: Verbrauch, Speicherung, inl\u00e4ndische Produktion und Importe. Bevor wir uns auf die Szenarioanalyse konzentrieren, werden wir kurz die j\u00fcngsten Trends im Zusammenhang mit jeder dieser Variablen er\u00f6rtern. Der Erdgasverbrauch in Europa lag 2022 um rund 13% niedriger als im Vorjahr (aber unter dem 15%-Ziel, zu dem sich die EU-Mitglieder im Sommer freiwillig verpflichtet hatten) und sank von rund 495 Mrd. m\u00b3 auf 430 Mrd. m\u00b3. Die Verbrauchsreduzierungen waren teils vorgeschrieben, teils freiwillig und teils eine Folge der g\u00fcnstigen Witterungsbedingungen. Einige Sektoren, die Erdgas intensiv f\u00fcr ihre Produktion nutzen, wie die Chemie-, Metall- und Glasindustrie, trugen am meisten zu diesen Verbrauchseinsparungen bei. In einigen extremen F\u00e4llen stellten einige Unternehmen in diesen Branchen ihre T\u00e4tigkeit vollst\u00e4ndig ein und werden sie in Zukunft trotz niedrigerer Preise m\u00f6glicherweise nicht wieder aufnehmen. Wie aus Grafik 1 hervorgeht, gibt es jedoch erhebliche Unterschiede zwischen den einzelnen L\u00e4ndern. Spanien zum Beispiel profitierte davon, dass es nicht von russischem Gas abh\u00e4ngig ist, und senkte seinen Verbrauch nur m\u00e4\u00dfig. Sowohl Frankreich als auch Italien haben ihren Verbrauch weniger stark gesenkt als der europ\u00e4ische Durchschnitt, w\u00e4hrend Deutschland und die Niederlande mit einem R\u00fcckgang von rund 20% gegen\u00fcber 2021 deutlich mehr einsparten.GRAFIK 1: DEUTLICHE VERBRAUCHSR\u00dcCKG\u00c4NGE IM JAHR 2022<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"Traduzione della versione originale inglese del 2 marzo 2023Stiamo lanciando Natural Gas Update, una nuova pubblicazione tematica sul mercato europeo del gas. <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Grazie a una combinazione di misure di risparmio energetico e inverno mite, il consumo di gas naturale \u00e8 stato finora eccezionalmente contenuto in tutta Europa, creando una riserva di stoccaggio senza precedenti che ha contribuito a far scendere il prezzo del TTF di circa l\u00b485% rispetto al picco estivo. <\/li><li> Per il prossimo inverno, il mercato sembra prezzare uno scenario in cui l\u00b4Europa riesce a mantenere il consumo di gas ai bassi livelli registrati nel 2022. In questo scenario, l\u00b4attuale produzione nazionale e le importazioni saranno probabilmente sufficienti a bilanciare il mercato e quindi i prezzi del TTF potrebbero stabilizzarsi intorno ai 50 euro\/MWh. <\/li><li> Con una riduzione dei consumi, invece, l\u00b4Europa dovr\u00e0 assicurarsi maggiori importazioni di GNL, che scarseggia. E la situazione potrebbe diventare pi\u00f9 complessa se si verificasse un blocco totale delle importazioni di gas russo. <\/li><li> Nel complesso, \u00e8 pi\u00f9 probabile che i prezzi del gas aumentino rispetto ai livelli attuali. Prevediamo che i prezzi del TTF si attesteranno su una media di 80-90 euro\/MWh nel secondo semestre del 2012. Il prezzo del TTF, il benchmark europeo del gas naturale, \u00e8 sceso di oltre l\u00b485% a meno di 50 euro\/MWh dopo aver raggiunto un picco di circa 340 euro\/MWh lo scorso agosto. I contratti futures prevedono una stabilizzazione dei prezzi intorno ai livelli attuali per tutto il 2023 e il 2024. Un inverno eccezionalmente mite, unito a una strategia ben congegnata di diversificazione dell\u00b4offerta e a misure di riduzione dei consumi, ha portato a una capacit\u00e0 di stoccaggio non sfruttata di circa il 64%, superiore di oltre 10 punti percentuali alla media storica per questo periodo dell\u00b4anno. Mentre l\u00b4Europa pu\u00f2 ragionevolmente tirare un sospiro di sollievo, \u00e8 probabile che i prezzi del gas tornino a salire nei prossimi mesi, forse in modo significativo. Il gas russo \u00e8 ancora importante nel tentativo di bilanciare il mercato europeo, a prescindere da quanto bassi siano gli afflussi rispetto al passato (circa il 20% dei livelli pre-bellici) - e l\u00b4anno scorso sono diminuiti gradualmente, fornendo comunque un importante cuscinetto nel primo semestre del 2012. Se il gas russo continuer\u00e0 ad affluire ai livelli attuali, l\u00b4Europa potrebbe aver bisogno di assicurarsi maggiori forniture di GNL in quello che probabilmente diventer\u00e0 un mercato sempre pi\u00f9 ristretto con la ripresa della domanda asiatica. Se le importazioni di gas russo dovessero cessare completamente, la quantit\u00e0 di GNL necessaria sarebbe ancora pi\u00f9 elevata e probabilmente al di l\u00e0 della capacit\u00e0 di rigassificazione dell\u00b4Europa. Inoltre, c\u00b4\u00e8 il rischio che l\u00b4esperienza positiva dell\u00b4inverno in corso, combinata con i prezzi pi\u00f9 bassi di oggi, possa ridurre gli sforzi delle famiglie e delle imprese europee per ridurre i consumi (i primi tagli ai consumi sono i pi\u00f9 facili, mentre ulteriori tagli diventano progressivamente pi\u00f9 difficili da realizzare man mano che i consumi energetici diminuiscono). Per questo motivo, il sollievo non deve indurre all\u00b4autocompiacimento. Il rischio \u00e8 che la rigidit\u00e0 del mercato si manifesti verso l\u00b4estate, spingendo i prezzi al rialzo. Di seguito, eseguiamo una semplice analisi di scenario per evidenziare le potenziali vulnerabilit\u00e0. Dimostriamo che, nonostante il cuscinetto positivo derivante dagli elevati livelli di stoccaggio attuali, l\u00b4Europa avr\u00e0 bisogno del gas russo, di maggiori forniture di GNL e di tagli ai consumi per soddisfare il fabbisogno del prossimo inverno, ipotizzando una normalizzazione delle temperature. Tuttavia, il prezzo del TTF potrebbe avvicinarsi a 100 euro\/MWh durante l\u00b4estate, quando gli stoccaggi saranno riempiti. Senza il gas russo, il prezzo probabilmente superer\u00e0 questo livello, anche se probabilmente rimarr\u00e0 significativamente al di sotto dei 200 euro\/MWh. Situazione attualeIn termini molto generali, per seguire l\u00b4evoluzione del mercato europeo del gas sono necessarie quattro variabili: consumo, stoccaggio, produzione nazionale e importazioni. Prima di concentrarci sull\u00b4analisi di scenario, discuteremo brevemente le tendenze recenti associate a ciascuna di queste variabili. Il consumo di gas naturale in Europa nel 2022 \u00e8 diminuito di circa il 13% rispetto all\u00b4anno precedente (ma al di sotto dell\u00b4obiettivo del 15% che i membri dell\u00b4UE si erano impegnati a raggiungere su base volontaria durante l\u00b4estate), scendendo a 430bcm da circa 495bcm. Le riduzioni dei consumi sono state in parte obbligate, in parte volontarie e in parte frutto di condizioni climatiche favorevoli. Alcuni settori che fanno un uso intensivo di gas naturale per la loro produzione, come quello chimico, metallurgico e del vetro, sono stati tra i maggiori responsabili di questi risparmi. Nei casi pi\u00f9 estremi, alcune aziende di questi settori hanno interrotto completamente l\u00b4attivit\u00e0 e potrebbero non riaprire in futuro, nonostante i prezzi pi\u00f9 bassi. Tuttavia, come mostra il grafico 1, vi \u00e8 una sostanziale variazione tra i Paesi. La Spagna, ad esempio, ha beneficiato della mancanza di esposizione al gas russo e ha ridotto solo moderatamente i consumi. Sia la Francia che l\u00b4Italia hanno tagliato meno della media europea, mentre la Germania e i Paesi Bassi hanno tagliato molto di pi\u00f9, con riduzioni di circa il 20% rispetto al 2021. GRAFICO 1: I TAGLI AI CONSUMI NEL 2022 SONO STATI CONSISTENTI<\/li><\/ul>","analysts":[{"first":"Edoardo","last":"Campanella","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=21&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=74c2d76d6c9952be40cf5647d027b739"}],"countries":[{"name":"Global","ticker":"","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcountry%5D=33&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=4c1b220737febcefc785f67dbe920bab"}]},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28964,"publicationDate":"17 Feb 23","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2023_184641.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJKqnvtMyyPsZ3QifgKdniXc=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Energy Insights - Overview of the Oil and Natural Gas Markets","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Energy Insights","synopsis":"<p>We are launching a new publication, Energy Insights, that will provide an update about the oil and the natural gas markets. Oil<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>In 1Q23, Brent prices have been affected by generalized economic weakness, particularly in China, where the reopening of the economy has been bumpy so far as a result of the widespread transmission of COVID-19. <\/li><li>In 2Q23, and if the health situation in China normalizes, oil prices are likely to go up towards USD 95\/bbl on the back of stronger Chinese demand and global supply that is unable to keep up.<\/li><li>We expect OPEC+ to taper production curbs again by the end of 1H23, and as a result of a more-balanced market, with more production likely coming from the US later in 2023 and in 2024, in particular, Brent prices are expected to fluctuate around USD 90\/bbl. Natural Gas<\/li><li>European gas prices have fallen by 50% since November thanks to unusually warm weather and muted LNG competition with China when its zero-covid strategy was still in place.<\/li><li>The gas consumption savings made possible by favorable weather conditions have led to exceptionally high storage levels that will provide a crucial buffer next winter. <\/li><li>Despite high stocks, if weather patterns normalize in winter 2023-24, demand cuts will be more challenging, making competition with China over LNG supply more intense. This will likely put some upward pressure on prices from what futures are currently pricing.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Edoardo","last":"Campanella","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=21&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=74c2d76d6c9952be40cf5647d027b739"}],"countries":[{"name":"Global","ticker":"","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcountry%5D=33&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=4c1b220737febcefc785f67dbe920bab"}]},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28953,"publicationDate":"14 Feb 23","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2023_184625.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJKqnvtMyyPsZmpwn1fpZcac=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Data Comment - US CPI: Disinflation hit pause button in January","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Data Comment","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The January CPI report dissipates hopes for a rapid disinflationary process. After three consecutive months of continuous deceleration, CPI inflation accelerated again at the beginning of the year, jumping to 0.5% mom from 0.1%, driven by an increase in gasoline, food, and natural gas prices. A similar pace of increase was recorded back in October 2022. On a yearly basis, consumer inflation marginally decelerated to 6.4% from 6.5% -- the seventh straight drop in the rate. Excluding the volatile energy and food sub-components, core inflation stabilized at 0.4% mom. In yearly terms, it dropped to 5.6% yoy from 5.7%. <\/li><li> Of course, monthly figures can be affected by statistical noise of different kind, including the recent change in CPI weights or the update in the seasonal factors. And Fed chairman Jerome Powell repeatedly signaled that the path for disinflation will not be a smooth one. However, while the Fed looks through changes in volatile energy and food prices, underlying price pressure remains strong. <\/li><li> Core goods prices, after declining for three consecutive months, rose by 0.1% mom in January, with prices for apparel, new vehicles and medical care commodities rising strongly. While the very high inflation of core goods in 2021-22 was temporary, also the normalisation of those prices (and, hence, big downward effects on inflation) is likely to be temporary as supply constraints ease and inventory overhangs run their course. <\/li><li> Housing prices were the main contributors to the price increases in January, with shelter rising 0.7% mom (down from 0.8%) and accounting for nearly half of the monthly all-items increase. Given that private surveys of new rents are falling, we expect shelter prices to keep decelerating in the future. Core services excluding housing, which are the key variable to gauge signs of durable disinflation as they are sensitive to domestic labor market tightness, decelerated to 0.3% mom from 0.4%. Most of the improvement came from a decline in prices for airfares and health insurance. Although the latter will continue to subtract from inflation due to some statistical technicality, prices for airline tickets are likely to be rather volatile in the coming months. <\/li><li> January\u00b4s CPI figures dampened the trend of declining inflation of the last few months. And the market has reacted accordingly, pushing stock prices down, while lifting Treasury yields and the USD. The Fed will likely see today\u00b4s number as corroboration of its assessment that the economy is at the very early stages of what\u00b4s likely to be a bumpy disinflation process. Bringing inflation sustainably to the 2% target will require tight monetary policy for some time. We confirm our expectation of a 25bp interest rate hike in March, followed by another one of similar size in May. Looking at OIS forward rates, investors no longer price in a fed funds rate cut this year, with the peak at around 5.5%.In more detail:In January, the process of disinflation halted. Headline CPI inflation is still trending down, but at a slow pace. Core inflation, instead, has been decelerating very slowly since last summer (chart 1). CHART 1. A SLOWDOWN IN THE DISINFLATION PROCESS<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Edoardo","last":"Campanella","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=21&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=74c2d76d6c9952be40cf5647d027b739"}],"countries":[{"name":"United States","ticker":"US","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcountry%5D=42&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=7bc8e05d14fb73ad6fbafeda31d249b7"}]}]


Edoardo Campanella
UniCredit Bank AG, Milan
Piazza Gae Aulenti, 4 - Tower C
I-20154 Milan
+39 02 8862-0522

Edoardo Campanella is an economist on the UniCredit Research team. His daily activity is mainly focused on macroeconomic developments taking place in the eurozone. He previously worked as an econom...

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