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26c8a988b5df6d482d8d491fb73bc9d2a6de74359926102f333c69d706248212;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":28692,"publicationDate":"17 Nov 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_184258.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJMFJK6gFt5Ic8ChzcuRXBYo=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_184376.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJPMscoAUz340J3iJ4yvVSQI=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Macro & Markets 2023-24 Outlook: Go for carry as central banks approach peak rates","titleDe":"Macro & Markets 2023-24 Outlook - Nutzen Sie die Carry-Ertr\u00e4ge, w\u00e4hrend sich die Zentralbanken ihrem maximalen Leitzins n\u00e4hern","titleIt":"","product":"Macro & Markets","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Macro: <\/strong> We forecast a mild technical recession in both the US and the eurozone, followed by a below-trend recovery. Inflation is set to decelerate meaningfully in 2023. The Fed and the ECB are likely to finish their tightening cycle by early next year and to start cutting rates in 2024.<\/li><li><strong>FI: <\/strong> Long-dated yields are likely to be close to their peaks. Convincing signals that inflation is easing will give central banks a green light to rein in some of the recent tightening, leading to a bull market revival and curve steepening.<\/li><li><strong>FX: <\/strong> The USD is set to further loosen its grip, but its strength is unlikely to be fully reversed. By the end of our forecast horizon, we expect EUR-USD to climb to 1.10-1.12 and we see GBP-USD back above 1.20, USD-JPY below 135 and USD-CNY down to 6.90. We remain bearish on the CEE3 currencies, the TRY and the RUB.<\/li><li><strong>Equities: <\/strong> Following a volatile sideways movement early in the year, equities have potential to rise by about 10% in 2023, primarily supported by valuation expansion. Earnings growth should be flat and is unlikely to accelerate before 2024. Our 2023 year-end index targets are Euro STOXX 50 4200, DAX 15500 and S&amp;P 500 4300 index points.<\/li><li><strong>Credit: <\/strong> We expect a solid year in European credit - both in financials and non-financials - though spread tightening is likely to take place only in 2H23. Lower tiers of the capital structure and high yield are likely to outperform, mainly thanks to high carry. We prefer HY NFI and Bank AT1s over IG seniors.<\/li><li><strong>ESG: <\/strong> Greeniums are set to move sideways or richen moderately as strong demand for ESG assets outpaces new issuance. Policy initiatives and the transforming energy landscape will support interest in the asset class.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p> <\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p> <\/p><\/p>","synopsisDe":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Macro: <\/strong> Wir prognostizieren eine leichte technische Rezession sowohl in den USA als auch in der Eurozone, gefolgt von einer Erholung unterhalb des Trends. Die Inflation d\u00fcrfte sich 2023 deutlich verlangsamen. Die Fed und die EZB werden ihren Straffungszyklus wahrscheinlich Anfang n\u00e4chsten Jahres beenden und 2024 mit Zinssenkungen beginnen.<\/li><li><strong> FI: <\/strong> Die Renditen langfristiger Anleihen befinden sich vermutlich bereits in der N\u00e4he ihres H\u00f6chststands. \u00dcberzeugende Signale, dass die Inflation nachl\u00e4sst, werden den Zentralbanken gr\u00fcnes Licht geben, einen Teil der j\u00fcngsten Straffung zur\u00fcckzunehmen, was zu einer Wiederbelebung des Bullenmarktes und einer Versteilerung der Zinsstrukturkurve f\u00fchren k\u00f6nnte.<\/li><li><strong> FX: <\/strong> Der USD d\u00fcrfte sich weiter abschw\u00e4chen, aber seine St\u00e4rke wird sich wahrscheinlich nicht vollst\u00e4ndig umkehren. Bis zum Ende unseres Prognosehorizonts rechnen wir mit einem Anstieg des EUR-USD auf 1,10-1,12 und erwarten GBP-USD wieder \u00fcber 1,20, den USD-JPY unter 135 und eine Abw\u00e4rtsbewegung bei USD-CNY bis auf 6,90. F\u00fcr die CEE3-W\u00e4hrungen, die TRY und den RUB bleiben wir bearish.<\/li><li><strong> Equities: <\/strong> Nach einer volatilen Seitw\u00e4rtsbewegung zu Beginn des Jahres haben Aktien im Jahr 2023 ein Aufw\u00e4rtspotenzial von rund 10%, was in erster Linie auf eine Ausweitung der Bewertungen zur\u00fcckzuf\u00fchren sein d\u00fcrfte. Das Gewinnwachstum bleibt voraussichtlich sehr niedrig und wird sich vor 2024 kaum beschleunigen. Unsere Indexziele zum Jahresende 2023 liegen f\u00fcr den Euro STOXX 50 bei 4200, f\u00fcr den DAX bei 15500 und f\u00fcr den S&amp;P 500 bei 4300 Indexpunkten.<\/li><li><strong> Credit: <\/strong> Wir erwarten ein solides Jahr f\u00fcr europ\u00e4ische Unternehmensanleihen - sowohl im Finanz- als auch im Nicht-Finanzsektor -, auch wenn die Spread-Einengung wahrscheinlich erst in 2H23 stattfinden wird. Die unteren Ebenen der Kapitalstruktur und High-Yield Anleihen k\u00f6nnten eine Outperformance zeigen, vor allem dank der hohen Carry-Ertr\u00e4ge. Wir bevorzugen High-Yield NFI- und Bank AT1-Anleihen gegen\u00fcber IG Seniors.<\/li><li><strong> ESG: <\/strong> Die Pr\u00e4mien f\u00fcr ESG-Anleihen d\u00fcrften sich seitw\u00e4rts bewegen oder moderat zulegen, da die starke Nachfrage nach ESG-Anlagen die Neuemissionen \u00fcbersteigt. Politische Initiativen und die sich wandelnde Energielandschaft werden das Interesse an der Anlageklasse f\u00f6rdern.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"","hash":"26c8a988b5df6d482d8d491fb73bc9d2a6de74359926102f333c69d706248212","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"2","showcompanies":"2","showcountries":"2","showcurrencies":"2","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"5"}},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28500,"publicationDate":"28 Sep 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_184012.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJKZXH2GAVJvL78LWAPe4_o0=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Economics Chartbook - Central banks\u00b4 inflation fight raises recession odds (4Q22)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"The Unicredit Economics Chartbook","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Global: <\/strong> The growth outlook is deteriorating. After likely subdued growth of 2.7% this year, we forecast global GDP rising by only 1.9% next year. The weakening reflects tighter financial conditions, surging energy bills in Europe and reduced economic momentum across the US, Europe, and China. The manufacturing sector is under pressure, the boost to services from the reopening of the economy is fading, and consumer confidence is low. Supply constraints have eased but remain elevated compared to before the pandemic. High excess savings and the tight labor market should mean any recession is mild. We expect global inflation to ease next year amid negative base effects, lower demand, a further easing of supply constraints and lower commodities prices. The risks to growth are to the downside as central banks prioritize fighting inflation.<\/li><li><strong>US: <\/strong> We forecast GDP growth of 1.5% this year and -0.1% next year (previously +0.1%), with the economy teetering on the edge of recession. The weakness is concentrated in interest-rate-sensitive sectors, notably housing and durable goods. Monthly headline inflation will likely ease sustainably to levels consistent with the 2% target from the spring, while core inflation is likely to take longer to do so. The midterm elections seem likely to result in political gridlock. We now see the Fed raising interest rates to a peak of 4.50-4.75% (previously 3.75-4.00%) by early next year, followed by a first rate cut in late 2023.<\/li><li><strong>Eurozone: <\/strong> GDP growth is likely to average 3.1% this year and come to a standstill in 2023 (0.2%). The latest survey indicators point to a recession at the turn of the year, in line with our baseline scenario. Inflation is likely to hover at around 10% for the remainder of the year, before entering a downward trajectory that would take it towards 2.5% by the end of 2023. We are raising our forecast for the peak level of the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.25%, to be reached in 1Q23. As policy rates rise towards, or above, the upper end of the neutrality range, the ECB is likely to start looking at quantitative tightening (QT) as its next policy step.<\/li><li><strong>CEE: <\/strong> We forecast GDP growth to slow from 4.3% in 2022 to 0.8% in 2023 in EU-CEE and from 5.5% in 2022 to 3.2% in 2023 in Turkey. In Russia, we expect the economy to shrink by around 5% this year and 4% in 2023. We believe that CEE can avoid an energy crisis, but not a technical recession in 4Q22-1Q23 due to high energy prices, circumspect consumers, negative credit and fiscal impulses, destocking, imports outpacing exports, low EU fund inflows and falling public investment. A gradual recovery is possible in 2H23. Inflation is likely to peak this winter in all CEE countries and to remain well above target in 2023. We expect tightening cycles to end at 13% in Hungary, 7% in Czechia and Poland, 6% in Romania and 5% in Serbia. The CBRT is likely to cut its policy rate to single digits and the CBR to 7%. FX interventions will likely continue in Czechia, Poland, Romania, Serbia and Turkey.<\/li><li><strong>UK: <\/strong> We are revising our GDP growth forecasts down slightly to 3.3% for this year (previously 3.5%), and to -0.3% for next year (previously -0.1%). The economy is likely already in recession. The energy price cap means inflation will probably peak at just under 11% in October. Large and poorly targeted fiscal easing at a time of constrained supply will likely force the BoE to hike the bank rate sharply to 4.50% (previously 2.50%).<\/li><li><strong>China: <\/strong> We are reducing our GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 2.0% from 2.4%, and for 2023 to 3.4% from 4.0%. The combination of power shortages, sporadic lockdowns and a real estate sector in disarray is weighing on economic activity. However, contained inflationary pressure, both on the producer and consumer front, is allowing the government to use its monetary and fiscal policy levers to support the economy ahead of the party congress that will likely elevate Xi Jinping to a third term as president of the country. After hitting new lows since 2008, the CNY is set to remain weak against the USD, beyond 7.20.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":""},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28210,"publicationDate":"29 Jun 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_183650.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJPRjevfYGAe4I4tua3mCuHw=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Economics Chartbook - Downside risks to growth building (3Q22)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"The Unicredit Economics Chartbook","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Global: <\/strong> GDP growth will probably slow to 3.0% this year (previously 3.3%) and 2.8% next year (from 3.4%). Headwinds from the Russia-Ukraine conflict have combined with COVID-19 lockdowns in China to push inflation up further and slow the pace of economic activity. Central banks have become even more hawkish. Tighter financial conditions, a squeeze in real incomes and a sharp downturn in consumer confidence will increasingly weigh on activity. Trade is weakening, also reflecting a switching of expenditure away from goods. Global inflation will probably peak soon, but the speed and extent of the subsequent decline remains highly uncertain. We think that central banks and markets are underestimating the downside risks to growth. If Russian energy imports suddenly stop, much of Europe will likely see negative GDP growth for 2023.<\/li><li><strong>US: <\/strong> We forecast GDP growth of 2.4% this year and below-potential growth of 1.3% next year. Economic momentum is slowing, particularly for interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and durable goods. CPI inflation will likely peak at about 9% yoy in 3Q22, with monthly inflation prints likely easing to levels consistent with target by around the turn of the year. Longer-run measures of inflation expectations are still well anchored and average hourly earnings growth is moderating. We expect the Fed to raise the target range for the federal funds rate into restrictive territory by the end of the year, to 3.25-3.50%, which we see as the peak. Rate cuts could start in late 2023.<\/li><li><strong>Eurozone: <\/strong> GDP is likely to expand by 2.8% this year and by 1.3% in 2023. Survey indicators signal a weakening of growth momentum in the spring and downside risks for economic activity in 2H22. Headline and core inflation have further to rise, although we see initial signs that pipeline price pressure might start easing soon from extremely high levels. Weak growth and slowing inflation will probably force the ECB to stop hiking in 1Q23 once the depo rate reaches 1.25%, i.e. the lower end of the 1-2% range the central bank regards as 'neutral'. We expect the announcement of a credible anti-fragmentation facility featuring potentially unlimited purchases and light conditionality.<\/li><li><strong>CEE: <\/strong> The EU-CEE economies will likely grow on average by 3.6% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023, with the Western Balkans lagging. Turkey could grow by 4.4% in 2022 and 3.3% in 2023. In Russia, the economy could shrink by around 10% this year and stall next year. Hungary and Slovakia would experience the biggest direct impact from a lack of Russian energy imports, followed by Bulgaria, Czechia and Serbia. Inflation is likely to peak this year in most CEE countries, except for Hungary and Poland, where the peak could be postponed to 2023. Inflation is expected to remain well above targets in 2023. We think that central banks will end rate hikes in the autumn, but the scope for rate cuts in 2023 is very limited. The CBR could cut the policy rate to 8% in 2022 and to 7% in 2023. The CBRT might hike in 2023 if there is a change in government.<\/li><li><strong>UK: <\/strong> We forecast GDP growth of 3.4% this year and 0.6% next year. The economy will be skating on the edge of recession for the next few quarters amid a big squeeze in real disposable income. Inflation is set to stay higher for longer in the UK compared to peers, peaking at above 9% yoy in 4Q22, but should fall quickly to below 2% by end-2023. The BoE will probably stop raising the bank rate after a final 25bp hike to 1.50% in August.<\/li><li><strong>China: <\/strong> GDP will likely grow by 4.0% in 2022 and by 4.2% in 2023. While most COVID-19-related restrictions were lifted at the beginning of June, the supply side of the economy is recovering faster than the demand side as Chinese consumers continue their cautious behavior to avoid quarantines. The central government is stepping up efforts to support the economy and reduce the negative impact of future waves of contagion on the domestic economy through a combination of monetary and fiscal policy measures. The PBoC might tolerate further weakening of the CNY towards 7.00 against the USD to support exports.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":""},{"layout":"detailed","uid":27588,"publicationDate":"30 Mar 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_182906.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJJW4PBk9_ILJawJy3UT8KTA=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Economics Chartbook - Central banks walk a thin line (2Q22) ","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"The Unicredit Economics Chartbook","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Global: <\/strong> The economic outlook has worsened. We see global GDP growth of 3.3% this year (from 4.2%) and 3.4% next year (from 3.7%). The Russia-Ukraine crisis has caused a sharp rise in commodities prices and inflationary pressure, further global supply-chain disruption, a tightening of financial conditions, heightened uncertainty and a sharp drop in consumer confidence. Rising COVID-19 cases, notably in China, pose additional risks. Global central banks will walk a thin line as the growth-inflation trade-off deteriorates.<\/li><li><strong> US: <\/strong> We expect GDP growth of 3.0% this year and 2.2% next year, which includes a cumulative 0.3pp reduction in growth due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. US trade and financial linkages with Russia and Ukraine are relatively small and the US economy entered the crisis in a good place, with strong household balance sheets and a very tight labor market. After likely peaking at about 8.5% yoy in the coming months, we see headline CPI inflation declining to moderately above 2% in 2023 due to base effects, lower energy prices, demand moderation and some improvement in supply bottlenecks. We now expect the Fed to hike by 125bp in the remainder of this year, up from 100bp previously, but still see the peak for the federal funds rate at 2-2.25% next year.<\/li><li><strong> Eurozone: <\/strong> Assuming that Russia continues to export oil and gas to Europe, we forecast GDP in the eurozone to expand by 3.1% this year and 2.5% in 2023. This growth trajectory is about 1pp lower than before the Russia-Ukraine conflict started. An easing of pandemic restrictions, still large amounts of excess savings for households and targeted fiscal stimulus are important mitigating factors. Our inflation forecast for 2022 has surged to close to 7%, followed by a decline to an average rate of about 2% in 2023. Facing a worsened trade-off between lower growth and higher inflation, the ECB confirmed its hawkish pivot and announced a plan to speed up the reduction of net asset purchases in 2Q22, aiming to end QE in 3Q22. We still expect two 25bp hikes in 1H23, although risks have shifted toward a first move taking place already before year-end.<\/li><li><strong> CEE: <\/strong> We expect the Russian economy to shrink by around 12% this year (peak-to-trough of around 20%), with a muted rebound in 2023 akin to stagnation. In EU-CEE and in the Western Balkans, GDP is expected to grow by around 2.3% in 2022 and by 3.6% in 2023. For this group, we estimate the direct impact of the conflict on GDP growth at 1.5-3pp in 2022 and up to 1.5pp in 2023. Turkey could grow by around 4% this year and 3.8% in 2023. If the EU stops importing oil and gas from Russia, the Russian economy could shrink by around 20% this year and fail to rebound in 2023. In such a scenario, EU-CEE and the Western Balkans would probably fall into recession. Inflation could reach 30-year highs due to rapidly rising commodity prices and supply-chain bottlenecks, prompting additional rate hikes and FX interventions.<\/li><li><strong> UK: <\/strong> We forecast GDP growth of 3.4% this year and 1.8% next year, after revising down growth by a cumulative 0.6pp due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The UK imports little from Russia but, as a net importer of commodities, it faces a substantial terms-of-trade shock. Inflation will likely peak at about 8.5% yoy in April and stay high through 3Q23 before falling below 2% in 4Q23. The MPC will likely raise the bank rate to 1.25% by August and then stop.<\/li><li><strong> China: <\/strong> We expect GDP to grow 4.7% in both 2022 and 2023. New outbreaks of COVID-19 that are forcing millions of Chinese into new lockdowns will likely weigh on economic performance in 1H22, adding to headwinds from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising commodity prices and real estate vulnerabilities. However, the government has signaled it will deploy further policy support to ensure stable economic performance and mitigate domestic and external growth headwinds. An easing in fiscal and monetary policy is likely.<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":""},{"layout":"detailed","uid":26840,"publicationDate":"10 Dec 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_181953.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJB6dDKN-ZlwQwmzPU8IXdJ8=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_182038.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJBcmVMUvH8DWSidpqkZAj_U=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"UniCredit Macro & Markets - 2022-23 Outlook: A bumpy road towards normalization","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Macro & Markets","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Macro: <\/strong> We are lowering our global GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 4.2%, as supply bottlenecks and higher inflation last for longer than anticipated. The US will likely recover its pre-pandemic GDP trend by 4Q22, while the eurozone might get there a year later. Monetary policy will gradually normalize. We expect the Fed to hike rates twice next year and three times in 2023. The ECB\u2019s QE will likely continue at a slower pace into 2023, with no change in policy rates.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>FI: <\/strong> UST yields are likely to drift upwards accompanied by a long-lasting bear-flattening trend. Bund yields should remain low, with the yield curve showing a modest bear-steepening as ECB purchases gradually decline. Pulled by diverging forces, the 10Y BTP-Bund spread will probably trade around 125bp.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>FX: <\/strong> Interest-rate differentials are set to remain the major driver of FX. In G10, we like the USD, GBP, NOK and the commodity currencies against the EUR, JPY, CHF and SEK. New COVID-19 developments may add volatility but are unlikely to prevent EUR-USD from dropping to 1.10 and below.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Equities: <\/strong> European equities have the potential to grow by about 10% in 2022, mainly supported by solid earnings growth, while volatility may remain elevated over the next few months, as uncertainty surrounding COVID-19, high inflation rates and the policy response of central banks is likely to persist.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Credit: <\/strong> We expect European corporate credit spreads will tighten by the end of 2022. Rising inflation, higher yields, supply-chain frictions and pandemic developments are the main challenges but their impact on performance is expected to be contained by supportive technical factors.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":""}]


Chiara Silvestre
UniCredit Bank AG, Milan
Piazza Gae Aulenti, 4 - Tower C
I-20154 Milan

Chiara Silvestre is an economist based in Milan. Her focus is on Sweden and Norway, and she supports the analysis and forecasting of indicators of European economics. After being awarded the qualif...

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