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Dr. Luca Cazzulani
Co-Head of Strategy Research
FI Strategist
UniCredit Bank, Milan
Piazza Gae Aulenti, 4 - Tower C - MRE6R
I-20154 Milan
+39 02 8862-0640

Luca Cazzulani is UniCredit’s Co-Head of Strategy Research and an FI strategist. He covers market dynamics with a particular focus on the EMU. Luca has an MSc in Econometrics  from the London School of Economics (LSE) and a PhD in economics from a joint program between the Università Cattolica and the Università Bocconi.

Latest contribution

88204f0aa7a4eb4281ab6c14a52d727f0e070fdafa5d4ce4eb0db334bd47e4c1;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":25847,"publicationDate":"19 Jul 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2021_180744.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVCsY1pNwWYpSDrsnC7pek3Qo6o4QdG1UDg==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Rates Perspectives - Cliff in excess liquidity related to TLTRO should be avoided","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Rates Perspectives","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Excess liquidity in the euro area has increased to more than EUR 4tn as a result of QE and TLTROs. While we expect that QE will lead to a further increase in excess liquidity in the coming quarters, this is unlikely to be the case for TLTROs. If anything, the question is how fast banks will pay back these funds.<\/li><li> The TLTRO III.4 allotted in June 2020 has a very large amount outstanding (EUR 1.3tn). We discuss what the ECB could do to reduce the likelihood of a liquidity cliff.<\/li><li> Very high excess liquidity has pushed the Euribor curve up to the 6M tenor below the ECB deposit rate and the 3M Euribor\/Eonia basis below zero. We do not expect to see a reversal of these trends in the foreseeable future.<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"88204f0aa7a4eb4281ab6c14a52d727f0e070fdafa5d4ce4eb0db334bd47e4c1","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"-1","showcompanies":"-1","showcountries":"-1","showcurrencies":"-1","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"400","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","limit":"1"}}]