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Dr. Luca Cazzulani
Co-Head of Strategy Research
FI Strategist
UniCredit Bank, Milan
Piazza Gae Aulenti, 4 - Tower C - MRE6R
I-20154 Milan
Italy
+39 02 8862-0640

Luca Cazzulani is UniCredit’s Co-Head of Strategy Research and an FI strategist. He covers market dynamics with a particular focus on the EMU. Luca has an MSc in Econometrics  from the London School of Economics (LSE) and a PhD in economics from a joint program between the Università Cattolica and the Università Bocconi.

Latest contribution

88204f0aa7a4eb4281ab6c14a52d727f0e070fdafa5d4ce4eb0db334bd47e4c1;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":24424,"publicationDate":"01 Feb 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2021_179093.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVCsY1pNwWYpSseITqiopMUYb21i9hmCfCA==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Rates Perspectives - EU bonds and Bunds...mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the safest of them all?","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Rates Perspectives","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> EU bonds will become an important new component of the European sovereign market. In principle, they will establish the much desired common euro-denominated safe asset with a \u201cpolitical joint and several\u201d structure.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> In reality, however, compared with the strongest eurozone sovereigns, their pricing will reflect two aspects: liquidity and the perception of the political strength of the EU project. As the EU budget is ultimately guaranteed by the member states, EU bonds should not trade tighter than its strongest member.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The outperformance of EU bonds versus Bunds since the first SURE transaction reflects expectations that these assets will gain prominence and their liquidity will improve, making them more similar to sovereigns. We expect further tightening as a result.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> At current yield levels, we prefer EU bonds to small and medium-sized sovereigns. At the extra-long end, we regard EU bonds as expensive versus Bunds and prefer OATs, which offer a considerable yield pickup. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The strong secondary-market performance of the EU SURE transactions was spread-supportive for other European supranationals. We expect EU bonds to trade more expensive than other E-Names.<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"88204f0aa7a4eb4281ab6c14a52d727f0e070fdafa5d4ce4eb0db334bd47e4c1","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"-1","showcompanies":"-1","showcountries":"-1","showcurrencies":"-1","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"400","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","limit":"1"}}]

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