3a13ad8e12bece43a3d00d21ad14554ae5f9ea412962709836493fec2e1100d5;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":28952,"publicationDate":"14 Feb 23","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2023_184624.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRoPnZVGVGJiXT4Q7GaU8yGBw==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Data Comment - Romania: drop in headline inflation hides underlying strength","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Data Comment","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Headline inflation fell sharply in January, to 15.1% yoy from 16.4% yoy in December 2022. Compared to our forecast, the surprise was due to lower electricity prices. <\/li><li> Core inflation, momentum and weighted-median inflation suggest that demand pressure on prices accelerated at the start of this year.<\/li><li> We expect disinflation to restart in March and pick up in April. We forecast headline inflation at 7.4% yoy at the end of this year and close to 5% by the end of 2024. <\/li><li> We expect core inflation excluding processed food to remain outside the target range until close to the end of 2024.<\/li><li> We expect the NBR to remain on hold this year, although the recent rise in excess RON liquidity suggests that the central banks wants to lower lending rates for households. Annual inflation fell in January, to 15.1% from 16.4% in December. Compared to our forecast, the downward surprise was completely accounted for by a 15.8% monthly drop in electricity prices (-0.7pp in headline inflation). This sharp drop in prices was attributed to the impact of Government Ordinance 27\/2022 on the average prices paid by households. Since the ordinance extended price caps and changed mostly the way distributors report prices, the sharp monthly drop was unexpected.Looking beyond this downward surprise, demand pressure on prices was strong. Core inflation (the official measure) rose to 14.9% yoy from 14.7% in December, with the measure excluding processed food inching higher by the same magnitude, to 10.2% yoy.The inflation momentum in core inflation (3M\/3M, SA, annualized) accelerated strongly by 4.6pp to 15.7%, becoming the highest in Central Europe and remaining on an upward trend for a fourth consecutive month (Chart 1). Weighted-median inflation fell by just 0.1pp to 10.8% yoy, with monthly inflation stripped of the largest price declines and increases remaining at 0.8% in January (Chart 2).December might have been a month of unusually strong and frontloaded consumption due to tax changes at the beginning of January. Higher interest rates for consumer loans and higher VAT for buildings starting in January 2023 prompted a surge in mortgage loans (seasonally adjusted, Chart 3) and might have boosted sales of housing goods and construction materials, while higher taxes on microenterprises led to bumper dividend payments that also accelerated household deposits. As a result of stronger demand, there might have been a spillover to consumer prices also in January. That said, the risk of higher core inflation that we currently forecast has risen after three consecutive monthly surprises.A base effect in energy prices (last year, the government imposed caps that reduced retail prices in February) could push inflation to 15.5% in February. Thereafter, inflation is likely to fall, with the biggest monthly drop of around 3pp expected in April. Inflation could end 2023 at around 7.4% yoy, while our forecast for core inflation excluding processed food stands at 5.8%, with risks to the upside (Chart 4). In 2024, pre-election spending could boost domestic demand and slow disinflation, with headline inflation expected at around 5% and core inflation excluding processed food at the top of the 1.5-3.5% target range by the end of the year. As a result, we expect no cuts from the NBR this year, although the central bank seems to prefer a lower lending rate for households and has allowed the average transaction rate on the interbank market to fall below the policy rate.CHART 1: INFLATION MOMENTUM IN CORE PRICES ACCELERATED STRONGLY IN JANUARY<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Dan","last":"Buc\u015fa","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=44&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=c7f02298f10f262449b713ce11406c3a"}],"countries":[{"name":"Romania","ticker":"RO","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcountry%5D=23&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=f9f9da4bba153cb675155ee6914bdb06"}],"hash":"3a13ad8e12bece43a3d00d21ad14554ae5f9ea412962709836493fec2e1100d5","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"2","showcompanies":"2","showcountries":"2","showcurrencies":"2","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"5"}},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28916,"publicationDate":"03 Feb 23","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2023_184571.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJPTZqM8tbM-Rys3LU7_xaZc=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Data Comment - Upcoming disinflation in CEE: mind the brakes","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Data Comment","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Inflation is likely to peak in 1Q23 in CEE and to fall thereafter. <\/li><li> Disinflation might be slowed by rising food prices, a need to increase energy prices and resilient domestic demand.<\/li><li> We expect inflation targets to be missed in 2023-24, with the highest chances of inflation returning inside target ranges in Serbia, Russia, Czechia and Romania (in this order).<\/li><li> Central banks and investors seem too optimistic about coming disinflation, in our view, especially with regard to 2024.<\/li><li> Resilient inflation in 1Q23 could lead to some expected rate cuts being priced out, temporarily ending a rally in CEE local-currency bonds. <\/li><li> A new bond rally is possible from 2Q23 onwards, although currency depreciation remains a risk. <\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Dan","last":"Buc\u015fa","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=44&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=c7f02298f10f262449b713ce11406c3a"}],"countries":[{"name":"Eastern Europe","ticker":"","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcountry%5D=32&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=4546eaa2d9d6edfd5100ef02af29cd24"}]},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28902,"publicationDate":"01 Feb 23","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2023_184554.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJPTZqM8tbM-R2dA0S0ARARg=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Data Comment - Manufacturing PMIs suggest robust start to the year in CEE","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Data Comment","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>January manufacturing PMIs published in CEE suggest that a deep recession is likely to be avoided. Output, orders and employment sub-indices underline this conclusion.<\/li><li>While activity continued to contract at the start of 2023, there has been an improvement since November, especially in orders, while supply-chain bottlenecks continue to ease. <\/li><li>Price pressure remains strong and companies continue to transfer cost increases to customers. This suggests that CEE central banks might be too optimistic about the pace of disinflation in 2023. January manufacturing PMIs released this morning in CEE alleviated concerns about a potential deep recession. In Central Europe and Turkey, manufacturing PMIs probably bottomed out in November, while in Russia the readings remain trendless. Manufacturing PMIs suggest that activity was shrinking in January in Czechia and Poland, was flat in Turkey and growing in Hungary and Russia. Hungary\u00b4s PMI readings are not perfectly comparable to the rest of the region because they come from the Hungarian Association of Logistics, Purchasing and Inventory Management (HALPIM), while all other indices are compiled by S&amp;P.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Dan","last":"Buc\u015fa","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=44&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=c7f02298f10f262449b713ce11406c3a"}]},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28820,"publicationDate":"09 Jan 23","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2023_184441.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRo7oSiWTU9yyA8K_ZQ8Wb5BQ==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2023_184511.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRo1VsaZ7M0QsRKPBOMsgOvsg==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"CEE Quarterly - Weathering geopolitical and economic shocks (1Q23)","titleDe":"CEE Quarterly - Im Spannungsfeld geopolitischer und wirtschaftlicher Schocks","titleIt":"","product":"CEE Quarterly","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>We forecast a technical recession throughout CEE over the winter due to falling purchasing power and foreign demand, tighter financial conditions and lower fiscal spending. A rebound is likely from 2H23 onwards if the eurozone economy recovers as well.<\/li><li>We expect the economies in EU-CEE to grow by around 0.5% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2024, slowing from 4.4% in 2022. The Western Balkans might trail the EU-CEE recovery.<\/li><li>In Turkey, we expect economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2024, with growth improving in 2024 only if financial risks are addressed after the 2023 elections. In Russia, the recession could accelerate to -5% in 2023, followed by a small rebound to around 2.5% in 2024 if import substitution improves, underpinning a gradual recovery in aggregate supply. <\/li><li>We forecast inflation to peak in 1Q23 in both EU-CEE and the Western Balkans. Thereafter, fiscal transfers, tight labor-market conditions and higher energy and food prices could keep inflation outside target ranges in 2023-24.<\/li><li>As a result, we see the scope for rate cuts in EU-CEE as being limited to 4.5-7% by 2024, while in Turkey we expect rates to be hiked to 45% this year if the opposition wins the elections. In Russia, cuts to 6.5% are possible if inflation returns to target in 2024.<\/li><li>All CEE central banks will continue to intervene in FX markets, with those in Romania and Serbia being more successful. The CBR could allow the RUB to depreciate gradually.<\/li><li>We assume that the Russia-Ukraine war will continue into 2024, without escalating to the use of non-conventional weapons and\/or spilling over to the rest of Europe.<\/li><li>Besides a more damaging conflict, the main risks for CEE in 2023 are the lack of a common European energy policy, a standoff between the European Commission and Hungary and Poland due to weak adherence to the rule of law, low reform appetite ahead of elections in Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia and Turkey, a financial crisis in Turkey if monetary and fiscal policies are not tightened after the elections, nationalist tensions in the Western Balkans, and Russia\u00b4s deepening economic isolation.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"<p>\u00dcbersetzung der englischen Originalversion vom 9. Januar 2023<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Wir prognostizieren eine technische Rezession in der ganzen CEE-Region \u00fcber den Winter aufgrund der sinkenden Kaufkraft und Auslandsnachfrage, strengerer Finanzierungsbedingungen und geringerer Haushaltsausgaben. Ein Aufschwung ist ab 2H23 wahrscheinlich, wenn sich auch die Wirtschaft der Eurozone erholt.<\/li><li>Wir gehen davon aus, dass die Volkswirtschaften in der EU-CEE-Region im Jahr 2023 um rund 0,5% und im Jahr 2024 um 3,3% wachsen werden, was eine Verlangsamung gegen\u00fcber den 4,4% im Jahr 2022 bedeutet. Der Westbalkan k\u00f6nnte hinter der EU-CEE-Erholung zur\u00fcckbleiben.<\/li><li>In der T\u00fcrkei erwarten wir ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 2,9% im Jahr 2023 und 3,6% im Jahr 2024, wobei sich das Wachstum im Jahr 2024 nur verbessern wird, wenn die finanziellen Risiken nach den Wahlen im Jahr 2023 angegangen werden. In Russland k\u00f6nnte sich die Rezession im Jahr 2023 auf -5% beschleunigen, gefolgt von einer leichten Erholung auf etwa 2,5% im Jahr 2024, wenn sich die Importsubstitution verbessert und eine allm\u00e4hliche Erholung des Gesamtangebots unterst\u00fctzt.<\/li><li>Wir prognostizieren, dass die Inflation in 1Q23 sowohl in der EU-CEE-Region als auch in den westlichen Balkanl\u00e4ndern ihren H\u00f6hepunkt erreichen wird. Danach k\u00f6nnten fiskalische Transfers, angespannte Arbeitsmarktbedingungen und h\u00f6here Energie- und Lebensmittel-preise die Inflation in den Jahren 2023-24 au\u00dferhalb der Zielbereiche halten.<\/li><li>Daher sehen wir den Spielraum f\u00fcr Zinssenkungen in der EU-CEE-Region bis 2024 auf 4,5-7% begrenzt, w\u00e4hrend wir in der T\u00fcrkei eine Anhebung der Zinss\u00e4tze auf 45% in diesem Jahr erwarten, falls die Opposition die Wahlen gewinnt. In Russland sind Zinssenkungen auf 6,5% m\u00f6glich, wenn die Inflation bis 2024 wieder das Ziel erreicht.<\/li><li>Alle Zentralbanken in Mittel- und Osteuropa werden weiterhin an den Devisenm\u00e4rkten intervenieren, wobei die Zentralbanken in Rum\u00e4nien und Serbien erfolgreicher seien d\u00fcrften. Die CBR k\u00f6nnte eine allm\u00e4hliche Abwertung des RUB zulassen.<\/li><li>Wir gehen davon aus, dass der Krieg zwischen Russland und der Ukraine bis ins Jahr 2024 andauern wird, ohne dass es zu einer Eskalation mit dem Einsatz nicht-konventioneller Waffen und\/oder einem \u00dcbergreifen auf das \u00fcbrige Europa kommt.<\/li><li>Neben einem sch\u00e4dlicheren Konflikt sind die Hauptrisiken f\u00fcr die CEE-Region im Jahr 2023 das Fehlen einer gemeinsamen europ\u00e4ischen Energiepolitik, eine Pattsituation zwischen der Europ\u00e4ischen Kommission und Ungarn sowie Polen aufgrund der schwachen Einhaltung der Rechtsstaatlichkeit, eine geringe Reformbereitschaft vor den Wahlen in Bulgarien, Polen, der Slowakei und der T\u00fcrkei, eine Finanzkrise in der T\u00fcrkei, wenn die Geld- und Fiskalpolitik nach den Wahlen nicht gestrafft wird, nationalistische Spannungen auf dem westlichen Balkan und die zunehmende wirtschaftliche Isolation Russlands.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":""},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28692,"publicationDate":"17 Nov 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_184258.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJMFJK6gFt5Ic8ChzcuRXBYo=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_184376.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJPMscoAUz340J3iJ4yvVSQI=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Macro & Markets 2023-24 Outlook: Go for carry as central banks approach peak rates","titleDe":"Macro & Markets 2023-24 Outlook - Nutzen Sie die Carry-Ertr\u00e4ge, w\u00e4hrend sich die Zentralbanken ihrem maximalen Leitzins n\u00e4hern","titleIt":"","product":"Macro & Markets","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Macro: <\/strong> We forecast a mild technical recession in both the US and the eurozone, followed by a below-trend recovery. Inflation is set to decelerate meaningfully in 2023. The Fed and the ECB are likely to finish their tightening cycle by early next year and to start cutting rates in 2024.<\/li><li><strong>FI: <\/strong> Long-dated yields are likely to be close to their peaks. Convincing signals that inflation is easing will give central banks a green light to rein in some of the recent tightening, leading to a bull market revival and curve steepening.<\/li><li><strong>FX: <\/strong> The USD is set to further loosen its grip, but its strength is unlikely to be fully reversed. By the end of our forecast horizon, we expect EUR-USD to climb to 1.10-1.12 and we see GBP-USD back above 1.20, USD-JPY below 135 and USD-CNY down to 6.90. We remain bearish on the CEE3 currencies, the TRY and the RUB.<\/li><li><strong>Equities: <\/strong> Following a volatile sideways movement early in the year, equities have potential to rise by about 10% in 2023, primarily supported by valuation expansion. Earnings growth should be flat and is unlikely to accelerate before 2024. Our 2023 year-end index targets are Euro STOXX 50 4200, DAX 15500 and S&amp;P 500 4300 index points.<\/li><li><strong>Credit: <\/strong> We expect a solid year in European credit - both in financials and non-financials - though spread tightening is likely to take place only in 2H23. Lower tiers of the capital structure and high yield are likely to outperform, mainly thanks to high carry. We prefer HY NFI and Bank AT1s over IG seniors.<\/li><li><strong>ESG: <\/strong> Greeniums are set to move sideways or richen moderately as strong demand for ESG assets outpaces new issuance. Policy initiatives and the transforming energy landscape will support interest in the asset class.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p> <\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p> <\/p><\/p>","synopsisDe":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Macro: <\/strong> Wir prognostizieren eine leichte technische Rezession sowohl in den USA als auch in der Eurozone, gefolgt von einer Erholung unterhalb des Trends. Die Inflation d\u00fcrfte sich 2023 deutlich verlangsamen. Die Fed und die EZB werden ihren Straffungszyklus wahrscheinlich Anfang n\u00e4chsten Jahres beenden und 2024 mit Zinssenkungen beginnen.<\/li><li><strong> FI: <\/strong> Die Renditen langfristiger Anleihen befinden sich vermutlich bereits in der N\u00e4he ihres H\u00f6chststands. \u00dcberzeugende Signale, dass die Inflation nachl\u00e4sst, werden den Zentralbanken gr\u00fcnes Licht geben, einen Teil der j\u00fcngsten Straffung zur\u00fcckzunehmen, was zu einer Wiederbelebung des Bullenmarktes und einer Versteilerung der Zinsstrukturkurve f\u00fchren k\u00f6nnte.<\/li><li><strong> FX: <\/strong> Der USD d\u00fcrfte sich weiter abschw\u00e4chen, aber seine St\u00e4rke wird sich wahrscheinlich nicht vollst\u00e4ndig umkehren. Bis zum Ende unseres Prognosehorizonts rechnen wir mit einem Anstieg des EUR-USD auf 1,10-1,12 und erwarten GBP-USD wieder \u00fcber 1,20, den USD-JPY unter 135 und eine Abw\u00e4rtsbewegung bei USD-CNY bis auf 6,90. F\u00fcr die CEE3-W\u00e4hrungen, die TRY und den RUB bleiben wir bearish.<\/li><li><strong> Equities: <\/strong> Nach einer volatilen Seitw\u00e4rtsbewegung zu Beginn des Jahres haben Aktien im Jahr 2023 ein Aufw\u00e4rtspotenzial von rund 10%, was in erster Linie auf eine Ausweitung der Bewertungen zur\u00fcckzuf\u00fchren sein d\u00fcrfte. Das Gewinnwachstum bleibt voraussichtlich sehr niedrig und wird sich vor 2024 kaum beschleunigen. Unsere Indexziele zum Jahresende 2023 liegen f\u00fcr den Euro STOXX 50 bei 4200, f\u00fcr den DAX bei 15500 und f\u00fcr den S&amp;P 500 bei 4300 Indexpunkten.<\/li><li><strong> Credit: <\/strong> Wir erwarten ein solides Jahr f\u00fcr europ\u00e4ische Unternehmensanleihen - sowohl im Finanz- als auch im Nicht-Finanzsektor -, auch wenn die Spread-Einengung wahrscheinlich erst in 2H23 stattfinden wird. Die unteren Ebenen der Kapitalstruktur und High-Yield Anleihen k\u00f6nnten eine Outperformance zeigen, vor allem dank der hohen Carry-Ertr\u00e4ge. Wir bevorzugen High-Yield NFI- und Bank AT1-Anleihen gegen\u00fcber IG Seniors.<\/li><li><strong> ESG: <\/strong> Die Pr\u00e4mien f\u00fcr ESG-Anleihen d\u00fcrften sich seitw\u00e4rts bewegen oder moderat zulegen, da die starke Nachfrage nach ESG-Anlagen die Neuemissionen \u00fcbersteigt. Politische Initiativen und die sich wandelnde Energielandschaft werden das Interesse an der Anlageklasse f\u00f6rdern.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":""}]