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Elia Lattuga
Co-Head of Strategy Research
Cross Asset Strategist
UniCredit Bank, London
Moore House - MRE6C
120 London Wall
UK-EC2Y-5ET London
United Kingdom
+44 207 826-1642

Elia is UniCredit's Co-Head of Strategy Research and a Cross Asset strategist based in London. He joined UniCredit Research in July 2010 as an FI strategist and moved to his current coverage in July 2017. Elia has a BA in economics and an MSc in finance from Università Bocconi in Milan.

Latest contribution

5b1f35418fd0270150f8dc9fe84f08e7ae5b3106d5a0ed2fae3e9a70d05c8ca8;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":24272,"publicationDate":"13 Jan 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2021_178928.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRozlcCgEKTWgv-25mWQRJ_Fg==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"CEE Quarterly - A path to recovery (1Q21)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"CEE Quarterly","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We expect economies in EU-CEE and in the western Balkans, to grow by around 3.3% in 2021 after slumping by close to 5% in 2020. A weak start to 2021, lower fiscal support, looser labor-market conditions, delayed investment and external risks could result in an incomplete recovery. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> GDP in EU-CEE and the western Balkans could return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022, when growth could accelerate to more than 4%. Interest rates could be increased in Czechia at the end of 2021 and in Poland and Romania in 2022.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> EU support in the form of the European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE), Next Generation EU (NGEU) and the 2021-27 EU budget could support the recovery in EU-CEE in 2022 and beyond. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> IN EU-CEE, only the NBR is expected to cut rates in 2021. The CNB could be the first central bank to increase rates in 2H21, followed by the NBP and the NBR in 2H22. Central banks could purchase more bonds if state funding needs rise above current plans. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> In Turkey, economic growth could accelerate from around 1.2% in 2020, to 2.9% in 2021 and 4% in 2022. Without structural reforms, most of the monetary tightening implemented in 2020 could be reversed in 2021 to spur lending and growth. This strategy is not sustainable, and may only serve to put pressure back on the current account, the currency and rates. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> After declining by almost 4% in 2020, the Russian economy could grow by 2.2-2.3% in 2021 and 2022. The central bank could keep the policy rate at 4.25% in 2021-22 if inflation remains below the 4% target.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The COVID-19 pandemic will continue to affect CEE countries in 2021, with herd immunity reached this year only if vaccination accelerates significantly. However, restrictions and their negative economic impact could be much milder next winter than they are currently.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> In 2021, government anti-pandemic support will decline compared to 2020 in all CEE countries but Bulgaria. Indirect support could be less efficient than last year, unless governments focus on grants, rather than loans to SMEs. Labor-market support may be needed to avoid a large second wave of layoffs. Support could be withdrawn starting in 2H21. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Political noise will be a risk in Bulgaria and Czechia, where parliamentary elections will be held in 2021.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Democracy in CEE would benefit if the US administration returns to multilateralism.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> In the next two years, EU fund disbursements are unlikely to be tied to observing the rule of law. <\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"5b1f35418fd0270150f8dc9fe84f08e7ae5b3106d5a0ed2fae3e9a70d05c8ca8","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"-1","showcompanies":"-1","showcountries":"-1","showcurrencies":"-1","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"400","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","limit":"1"}}]

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