0077e67ba122c312d4c353a6ab71bd843e8fb501d123c400010bd5f4f4c1e66e;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":28692,"publicationDate":"17 Nov 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_184258.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJMFJK6gFt5Ic8ChzcuRXBYo=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_184376.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJPMscoAUz340J3iJ4yvVSQI=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Macro & Markets 2023-24 Outlook: Go for carry as central banks approach peak rates","titleDe":"Macro & Markets 2023-24 Outlook - Nutzen Sie die Carry-Ertr\u00e4ge, w\u00e4hrend sich die Zentralbanken ihrem maximalen Leitzins n\u00e4hern","titleIt":"","product":"Macro & Markets","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Macro: <\/strong> We forecast a mild technical recession in both the US and the eurozone, followed by a below-trend recovery. Inflation is set to decelerate meaningfully in 2023. The Fed and the ECB are likely to finish their tightening cycle by early next year and to start cutting rates in 2024.<\/li><li><strong>FI: <\/strong> Long-dated yields are likely to be close to their peaks. Convincing signals that inflation is easing will give central banks a green light to rein in some of the recent tightening, leading to a bull market revival and curve steepening.<\/li><li><strong>FX: <\/strong> The USD is set to further loosen its grip, but its strength is unlikely to be fully reversed. By the end of our forecast horizon, we expect EUR-USD to climb to 1.10-1.12 and we see GBP-USD back above 1.20, USD-JPY below 135 and USD-CNY down to 6.90. We remain bearish on the CEE3 currencies, the TRY and the RUB.<\/li><li><strong>Equities: <\/strong> Following a volatile sideways movement early in the year, equities have potential to rise by about 10% in 2023, primarily supported by valuation expansion. Earnings growth should be flat and is unlikely to accelerate before 2024. Our 2023 year-end index targets are Euro STOXX 50 4200, DAX 15500 and S&amp;P 500 4300 index points.<\/li><li><strong>Credit: <\/strong> We expect a solid year in European credit - both in financials and non-financials - though spread tightening is likely to take place only in 2H23. Lower tiers of the capital structure and high yield are likely to outperform, mainly thanks to high carry. We prefer HY NFI and Bank AT1s over IG seniors.<\/li><li><strong>ESG: <\/strong> Greeniums are set to move sideways or richen moderately as strong demand for ESG assets outpaces new issuance. Policy initiatives and the transforming energy landscape will support interest in the asset class.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p> <\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p> <\/p><\/p>","synopsisDe":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Macro: <\/strong> Wir prognostizieren eine leichte technische Rezession sowohl in den USA als auch in der Eurozone, gefolgt von einer Erholung unterhalb des Trends. Die Inflation d\u00fcrfte sich 2023 deutlich verlangsamen. Die Fed und die EZB werden ihren Straffungszyklus wahrscheinlich Anfang n\u00e4chsten Jahres beenden und 2024 mit Zinssenkungen beginnen.<\/li><li><strong> FI: <\/strong> Die Renditen langfristiger Anleihen befinden sich vermutlich bereits in der N\u00e4he ihres H\u00f6chststands. \u00dcberzeugende Signale, dass die Inflation nachl\u00e4sst, werden den Zentralbanken gr\u00fcnes Licht geben, einen Teil der j\u00fcngsten Straffung zur\u00fcckzunehmen, was zu einer Wiederbelebung des Bullenmarktes und einer Versteilerung der Zinsstrukturkurve f\u00fchren k\u00f6nnte.<\/li><li><strong> FX: <\/strong> Der USD d\u00fcrfte sich weiter abschw\u00e4chen, aber seine St\u00e4rke wird sich wahrscheinlich nicht vollst\u00e4ndig umkehren. Bis zum Ende unseres Prognosehorizonts rechnen wir mit einem Anstieg des EUR-USD auf 1,10-1,12 und erwarten GBP-USD wieder \u00fcber 1,20, den USD-JPY unter 135 und eine Abw\u00e4rtsbewegung bei USD-CNY bis auf 6,90. F\u00fcr die CEE3-W\u00e4hrungen, die TRY und den RUB bleiben wir bearish.<\/li><li><strong> Equities: <\/strong> Nach einer volatilen Seitw\u00e4rtsbewegung zu Beginn des Jahres haben Aktien im Jahr 2023 ein Aufw\u00e4rtspotenzial von rund 10%, was in erster Linie auf eine Ausweitung der Bewertungen zur\u00fcckzuf\u00fchren sein d\u00fcrfte. Das Gewinnwachstum bleibt voraussichtlich sehr niedrig und wird sich vor 2024 kaum beschleunigen. Unsere Indexziele zum Jahresende 2023 liegen f\u00fcr den Euro STOXX 50 bei 4200, f\u00fcr den DAX bei 15500 und f\u00fcr den S&amp;P 500 bei 4300 Indexpunkten.<\/li><li><strong> Credit: <\/strong> Wir erwarten ein solides Jahr f\u00fcr europ\u00e4ische Unternehmensanleihen - sowohl im Finanz- als auch im Nicht-Finanzsektor -, auch wenn die Spread-Einengung wahrscheinlich erst in 2H23 stattfinden wird. Die unteren Ebenen der Kapitalstruktur und High-Yield Anleihen k\u00f6nnten eine Outperformance zeigen, vor allem dank der hohen Carry-Ertr\u00e4ge. Wir bevorzugen High-Yield NFI- und Bank AT1-Anleihen gegen\u00fcber IG Seniors.<\/li><li><strong> ESG: <\/strong> Die Pr\u00e4mien f\u00fcr ESG-Anleihen d\u00fcrften sich seitw\u00e4rts bewegen oder moderat zulegen, da die starke Nachfrage nach ESG-Anlagen die Neuemissionen \u00fcbersteigt. Politische Initiativen und die sich wandelnde Energielandschaft werden das Interesse an der Anlageklasse f\u00f6rdern.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"","hash":"0077e67ba122c312d4c353a6ab71bd843e8fb501d123c400010bd5f4f4c1e66e","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"2","showcompanies":"2","showcountries":"2","showcurrencies":"2","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"5"}},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28500,"publicationDate":"28 Sep 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_184012.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJKZXH2GAVJvL78LWAPe4_o0=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Economics Chartbook - Central banks\u00b4 inflation fight raises recession odds (4Q22)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"The Unicredit Economics Chartbook","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Global: <\/strong> The growth outlook is deteriorating. After likely subdued growth of 2.7% this year, we forecast global GDP rising by only 1.9% next year. The weakening reflects tighter financial conditions, surging energy bills in Europe and reduced economic momentum across the US, Europe, and China. The manufacturing sector is under pressure, the boost to services from the reopening of the economy is fading, and consumer confidence is low. Supply constraints have eased but remain elevated compared to before the pandemic. High excess savings and the tight labor market should mean any recession is mild. We expect global inflation to ease next year amid negative base effects, lower demand, a further easing of supply constraints and lower commodities prices. The risks to growth are to the downside as central banks prioritize fighting inflation.<\/li><li><strong>US: <\/strong> We forecast GDP growth of 1.5% this year and -0.1% next year (previously +0.1%), with the economy teetering on the edge of recession. The weakness is concentrated in interest-rate-sensitive sectors, notably housing and durable goods. Monthly headline inflation will likely ease sustainably to levels consistent with the 2% target from the spring, while core inflation is likely to take longer to do so. The midterm elections seem likely to result in political gridlock. We now see the Fed raising interest rates to a peak of 4.50-4.75% (previously 3.75-4.00%) by early next year, followed by a first rate cut in late 2023.<\/li><li><strong>Eurozone: <\/strong> GDP growth is likely to average 3.1% this year and come to a standstill in 2023 (0.2%). The latest survey indicators point to a recession at the turn of the year, in line with our baseline scenario. Inflation is likely to hover at around 10% for the remainder of the year, before entering a downward trajectory that would take it towards 2.5% by the end of 2023. We are raising our forecast for the peak level of the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.25%, to be reached in 1Q23. As policy rates rise towards, or above, the upper end of the neutrality range, the ECB is likely to start looking at quantitative tightening (QT) as its next policy step.<\/li><li><strong>CEE: <\/strong> We forecast GDP growth to slow from 4.3% in 2022 to 0.8% in 2023 in EU-CEE and from 5.5% in 2022 to 3.2% in 2023 in Turkey. In Russia, we expect the economy to shrink by around 5% this year and 4% in 2023. We believe that CEE can avoid an energy crisis, but not a technical recession in 4Q22-1Q23 due to high energy prices, circumspect consumers, negative credit and fiscal impulses, destocking, imports outpacing exports, low EU fund inflows and falling public investment. A gradual recovery is possible in 2H23. Inflation is likely to peak this winter in all CEE countries and to remain well above target in 2023. We expect tightening cycles to end at 13% in Hungary, 7% in Czechia and Poland, 6% in Romania and 5% in Serbia. The CBRT is likely to cut its policy rate to single digits and the CBR to 7%. FX interventions will likely continue in Czechia, Poland, Romania, Serbia and Turkey.<\/li><li><strong>UK: <\/strong> We are revising our GDP growth forecasts down slightly to 3.3% for this year (previously 3.5%), and to -0.3% for next year (previously -0.1%). The economy is likely already in recession. The energy price cap means inflation will probably peak at just under 11% in October. Large and poorly targeted fiscal easing at a time of constrained supply will likely force the BoE to hike the bank rate sharply to 4.50% (previously 2.50%).<\/li><li><strong>China: <\/strong> We are reducing our GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 2.0% from 2.4%, and for 2023 to 3.4% from 4.0%. The combination of power shortages, sporadic lockdowns and a real estate sector in disarray is weighing on economic activity. However, contained inflationary pressure, both on the producer and consumer front, is allowing the government to use its monetary and fiscal policy levers to support the economy ahead of the party congress that will likely elevate Xi Jinping to a third term as president of the country. After hitting new lows since 2008, the CNY is set to remain weak against the USD, beyond 7.20.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":""},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28322,"publicationDate":"25 Jul 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_183795.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJEk1ou_cmVhVkQErcCF6AjM=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Chart of the Week - Recession probabilities for Germany surging","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Chart of the Week","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Today\u2019s Ifo survey for July was another blow to those, including us, who still have hope that a recession in Germany can be avoided. Business sentiment of companies has virtually tanked across sectors, while the probability of a recession has surged to<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Andreas","last":"Rees","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=55&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=dd5fc2c9c41d30698de779b8edbc637f"}]},{"layout":"detailed","uid":28210,"publicationDate":"29 Jun 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_183650.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJPRjevfYGAe4I4tua3mCuHw=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Economics Chartbook - Downside risks to growth building (3Q22)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"The Unicredit Economics Chartbook","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Global: <\/strong> GDP growth will probably slow to 3.0% this year (previously 3.3%) and 2.8% next year (from 3.4%). Headwinds from the Russia-Ukraine conflict have combined with COVID-19 lockdowns in China to push inflation up further and slow the pace of economic activity. Central banks have become even more hawkish. Tighter financial conditions, a squeeze in real incomes and a sharp downturn in consumer confidence will increasingly weigh on activity. Trade is weakening, also reflecting a switching of expenditure away from goods. Global inflation will probably peak soon, but the speed and extent of the subsequent decline remains highly uncertain. We think that central banks and markets are underestimating the downside risks to growth. If Russian energy imports suddenly stop, much of Europe will likely see negative GDP growth for 2023.<\/li><li><strong>US: <\/strong> We forecast GDP growth of 2.4% this year and below-potential growth of 1.3% next year. Economic momentum is slowing, particularly for interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and durable goods. CPI inflation will likely peak at about 9% yoy in 3Q22, with monthly inflation prints likely easing to levels consistent with target by around the turn of the year. Longer-run measures of inflation expectations are still well anchored and average hourly earnings growth is moderating. We expect the Fed to raise the target range for the federal funds rate into restrictive territory by the end of the year, to 3.25-3.50%, which we see as the peak. Rate cuts could start in late 2023.<\/li><li><strong>Eurozone: <\/strong> GDP is likely to expand by 2.8% this year and by 1.3% in 2023. Survey indicators signal a weakening of growth momentum in the spring and downside risks for economic activity in 2H22. Headline and core inflation have further to rise, although we see initial signs that pipeline price pressure might start easing soon from extremely high levels. Weak growth and slowing inflation will probably force the ECB to stop hiking in 1Q23 once the depo rate reaches 1.25%, i.e. the lower end of the 1-2% range the central bank regards as 'neutral'. We expect the announcement of a credible anti-fragmentation facility featuring potentially unlimited purchases and light conditionality.<\/li><li><strong>CEE: <\/strong> The EU-CEE economies will likely grow on average by 3.6% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023, with the Western Balkans lagging. Turkey could grow by 4.4% in 2022 and 3.3% in 2023. In Russia, the economy could shrink by around 10% this year and stall next year. Hungary and Slovakia would experience the biggest direct impact from a lack of Russian energy imports, followed by Bulgaria, Czechia and Serbia. Inflation is likely to peak this year in most CEE countries, except for Hungary and Poland, where the peak could be postponed to 2023. Inflation is expected to remain well above targets in 2023. We think that central banks will end rate hikes in the autumn, but the scope for rate cuts in 2023 is very limited. The CBR could cut the policy rate to 8% in 2022 and to 7% in 2023. The CBRT might hike in 2023 if there is a change in government.<\/li><li><strong>UK: <\/strong> We forecast GDP growth of 3.4% this year and 0.6% next year. The economy will be skating on the edge of recession for the next few quarters amid a big squeeze in real disposable income. Inflation is set to stay higher for longer in the UK compared to peers, peaking at above 9% yoy in 4Q22, but should fall quickly to below 2% by end-2023. The BoE will probably stop raising the bank rate after a final 25bp hike to 1.50% in August.<\/li><li><strong>China: <\/strong> GDP will likely grow by 4.0% in 2022 and by 4.2% in 2023. While most COVID-19-related restrictions were lifted at the beginning of June, the supply side of the economy is recovering faster than the demand side as Chinese consumers continue their cautious behavior to avoid quarantines. The central government is stepping up efforts to support the economy and reduce the negative impact of future waves of contagion on the domestic economy through a combination of monetary and fiscal policy measures. The PBoC might tolerate further weakening of the CNY towards 7.00 against the USD to support exports.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":""},{"layout":"detailed","uid":27988,"publicationDate":"24 May 22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2022_183381.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJHzbeXiHo2MFeKYSnTCNkdk=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Chart of the Week - Still no signs of a wage-price spiral in eurozone","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Chart of the Week","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Today\u00b4s release of negotiated wages in the eurozone showed a rise to 2.8% yoy in the first quarter of 2022 (4Q21: +1.6%). It was the strongest increase since 2009 and seemingly confirms what some economists and central bankers feared for quite some time: wage inflation has started to accelerate markedly in the eurozone. Resolute action by the ECB would be needed now to avoid a wage-price spiral, the sooner the better and maybe even a hike by 50bp. <\/li><li> A second more careful look reveals a different and subtle picture. The latest pick-up in eurozone wages was largely caused by Germany where negotiated wages jumped to 4.3% yoy from 1.5%. And here is the catch: As the methodology in capturing negotiated wages is somewhat different across eurozone countries, the German figure includes special payments and is far more volatile than the eurozone data (see also the spike in 2019). In yesterday\u00b4s release of its monthly report, the Bundesbank already noted that the pay hike was 'mainly due to high special payments and corona bonuses. By contrast, basic compensation adjusted for such special payments increased by only 1.6%.' <\/li><li> In other words, there are still no signs of excessive and wide-spread wage increases in the eurozone. For the record, negotiated wages in Italy were still below 1% yoy in 1Q22 and about 2\u00bd% for Spain and the Netherlands, while the French figure is not available yet. Typically, the ECB sees eurozone wage growth of 3% as consistent with 2% inflation over the medium term. The latest figure might support calls for gradual policy normalization by the majority of the Governing Council of the ECB but does not justify a 50bp hike. <\/li><li> Yesterday, Bundesbank President Nagel stated for Germany that 'when wage negotiations start in the second half of the year, we will see higher numbers'. We agree but how much it will be and whether it really requires monetary tightening is impossible to say at this stage. After all, there is a lot of uncertainty about how the economy will perform, especially in the manufacturing sector which is facing substantial downside risks in the form of lower growth dynamics in China and persistent supply shortages. Going forward, there are two important collective bargaining rounds in the pipeline for Germany. In the metal industry with nearly 4mn employees, the labor union will publish its wage demand at the end of June with negotiations starting in mid-September at the latest. In the chemical sector (0.6mn employees), the negotiations about a regular pay hike will be continued in October after the agreement on a one-off payment in April. <\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","analysts":[{"first":"Andreas","last":"Rees","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Banalyst%5D=55&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=analyst&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=dd5fc2c9c41d30698de779b8edbc637f"}],"countries":[{"name":"Euroland","ticker":"","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcountry%5D=25&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=fd74dfc966e72d45ff2580813616e07a"},{"name":"Europe","ticker":"","link":"https:\/\/www.unicreditresearch.eu\/index.php?id=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcountry%5D=26&tx_research_piedition%5Baction%5D=country&tx_research_piedition%5Bcontroller%5D=Edition&cHash=253d12e5521ae4b9a73e892ee04713f2"}]}]