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Chief Economist's Comment

851d3b04c4f15481673b7e1c9974bf392c5e726a216381c4bd925f7b0dd453c3;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":23269,"publicationDate":"13 Sep 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_177849.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJBWb-vzSjql6882LQQAWNWY=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_177849.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJBWb-vzSjql6882LQQAWNWY=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_177849.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJBWb-vzSjql6882LQQAWNWY=&T=1&T=1"},"title":"Chief Economist\u00b4s Comment - Sunday Wrap","titleDe":"Sunday Wrap: Kurzzusammenfassung","titleIt":"Sunday Wrap: Breve riassunto","product":"Chief Economist's Comment","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> European uncertainties: <\/strong> The path of the pandemic, the policy responses and the effects of those actions.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Global uncertainties, from the US election, to Brexit to Russia to Turkey.<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><em>Publikation nur auf Englisch verf\u00fcgbar <\/em><\/p><\/p><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Europ\u00e4ische Unsicherheiten: <\/strong> der Verlauf der Pandemie, die politischen Reaktionen und die Auswirkungen dieser Ma\u00dfnahmen<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Globale Unsicherheiten, von den US-Wahlen \u00fcber den Brexit bis hin zu Russland und der T\u00fcrkei<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><em>Pubblicazione disponibile solo in inglese <\/em><\/p><\/p><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Incertezze europee: <\/strong> l\u2019evolversi della pandemia, le risposte a livello di politiche (monetaria e fiscale) e gli effetti di questi interventi.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Incertezze globali: <\/strong> dalle elezioni USA alla Brexit alla Russia alla Turchia.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","hash":"851d3b04c4f15481673b7e1c9974bf392c5e726a216381c4bd925f7b0dd453c3","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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Macro & Markets

20815b83b88fe05fc7824014b0114b11f5d8bc3118208db6f4a3191e21cc6848;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":20947,"publicationDate":"21 Nov 19","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2019_175301.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJHMnXtAfRLRLb27Bgb0Reb0=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2019_175466.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJBCfutLg1NcopqcBL9sGGRk=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"UniCredit Macro & Markets - 2020-21 Outlook: Late-cycle blues","titleDe":"Late-cycle blues (German version)","titleIt":"","product":"Macro & Markets","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Macro: <\/strong> Global growth is set to weaken further to 2.7% in 2020, as the US economy is likely to enter a downturn, protectionist tensions are unlikely to fade materially and the resilience of the domestic drivers of eurozone growth starts to wane. The Fed will probably cut rates by 100bp, while the ECB is expected to stand pat and focus on its policy review. Economic growth in the CEE region will likely slow as a result of external headwinds.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> FI: <\/strong> Government bonds should remain supported throughout 2020. We expect 10Y US yields to fall to 1.50%, with the curve bull-steepening. Room for lower Bund yields is more limited as the bar for further ECB rate cuts is high and the Bund curve is quite flat. The 10Y yield will likely hit -0.50% at end-2020.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> FX: <\/strong> Narrower growth and rate differentials between the US and the eurozone offer EUR-USD some upside potential. We expect the GBP to recover but this will likely be slowed by BoE easing and the risk of a Brexit-related \u201ccliff edge\u201d in December 2020.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Equities: <\/strong> We anticipate strong corrections of up to 20% in global equities in 1H20, with some relief by year-end. 2020 will be dominated by low earnings growth in Europe and slowing earnings growth in the US. We think present consensus estimates are too high.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Credit: <\/strong> The late-stage credit cycle warrants defensive positioning in European IG and HY credit, with a preference for non-cyclical sectors. Technical factors such as the CSPP should support credit, though this will likely be balanced by a deterioration in credit fundamentals and the gap to valuations will widen further.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> CEEMEA: <\/strong> EM hard-currency credit is set to post a good, mostly carry-related performance in 2020 of more than 5%. Our preference remains BBB and BB rated credit.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"<p><strong><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Macro:<<\/strong><\/strong> Das globale Wachstum d\u00fcrfte sich bis 2020 weiter auf 2,7% abschw\u00e4chen, aufgrund eines voraussichtlichen Abschwungs der US-Wirtschaft sowie kaum wesentlich ver\u00e4nderter protektionistischer Spannungen und einer nachlasssenden Widerstandsf\u00e4higkeit der inl\u00e4ndischen Wachstumstreiber in der Eurozone. Die Fed wird ihre Zinsen voraussichtlich um 100 Bp. senken, w\u00e4hrend die EZB ihre Geldpolitik vermutlich stabil halten und sich auf die \u00dcberpr\u00fcfung ihrer geldpolitischen Strategie konzentrieren wird. Das Wirtschaftswachstum in der CEE-Region d\u00fcrfte sich aufgrund externer Gegenwinde verlangsamen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><strong><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> FI:<<\/strong><\/strong> Staatsanleihen sollten w\u00e4hrend des gesamten Jahres 2020 gut unterst\u00fctzt bleiben. Wir erwarten einen R\u00fcckgang der 10J UST Rendite auf 1,50%, wobei sich die Kurve versteilern d\u00fcrfte. Der Spielraum f\u00fcr niedrigere Bundrenditen ist geringer, da die Messlatte f\u00fcr weitere Zinssenkungen der EZB hoch und die Bundkurve recht flach ist. Die 10J Rendite wird Ende 2020 voraussichtlich -0,50% erreichen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><strong><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> FX:<<\/strong><\/strong> Engere Wachstums- und Renditeunterschiede zwischen den USA und der Eurozone bieten EUR-USD ein gewisses Aufw\u00e4rtspotenzial. Wir gehen von einer Erholung bei GBP aus, aber dies wird wahrscheinlich durch die Zinssenkungen der BoE und das Risiko eines Brexits ohne Abkommen im Dezember 2020 gebremst.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><strong><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Equities:<<\/strong><\/strong> Wir erwarten starke Korrekturen von bis zu 20% in den globalen Aktien im 1H20, mit einer gewissen Entlastung bis zum Jahresende. Das Jahr 2020 wird von einem niedrigen Gewinnwachstum in Europa und einem sich verlangsamenden Gewinnwachstum in den USA gepr\u00e4gt sein. Wir halten die derzeitigen Konsenssch\u00e4tzungen f\u00fcr zu hoch.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><strong><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Credit:<<\/strong><\/strong> Die Sp\u00e4tphase im Kreditzyklus rechtfertigt eine defensive Positionierung im europ\u00e4ischen Investment-Grade- und High-Yield-Anleihenbereich, mit einer Pr\u00e4ferenz f\u00fcr nicht-zyklische Sektoren. Technische Faktoren, wie das CSPP, sollten Unternehmensanleihen unterst\u00fctzen, obwohl dies wahrscheinlich durch eine Verschlechterung der Fundamentaldaten ausgeglichen wird, wobei sich der Abstand zu den Bewertungen weiter vergr\u00f6\u00dfern sollte.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><strong><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> CEEMEA: <\/strong> <\/strong>Schwellenl\u00e4nderanleihen mit einer stabilen W\u00e4hrung werden im Jahr 2020 eine gute Performance von mehr als 5% aufweisen. Wir bevorzugen weiterhin Anleihen mit einem BBB und BB Rating.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"","hash":"20815b83b88fe05fc7824014b0114b11f5d8bc3118208db6f4a3191e21cc6848","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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Economics Chartbook / Macro & Markets Outlook

f048df04c6f5e2f09941dd9ca902c3599ea6d17dd9fee004eac5f2884eb95a7d;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":22724,"publicationDate":"25 Jun 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_177256.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJOw0vlADQw2DTSVHmqOvrPE=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Economics Chartbook - The trough is behind us, but it is a long way back to normal (3Q20)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"The Unicredit Economics Chartbook","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Dear reader, welcome to the latest issue of our Economics Chartbook where we have fine-tuned our growth forecasts. The contraction in 2Q20 seems to have been slightly less severe than we had expected, but the recovery that has just started is likely to be shallower. It will take a long time for output to climb back to pre-crisis levels. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Global: <\/strong> An earlier end to the \u201cGreat Lockdown\u201d has led us to fine-tune our forecasts for several countries. Globally, we now see a somewhat less severe contraction of 5% this year (previously 6%) and a less pronounced recovery of 6-7% next year (previously 8-9%). The road to full recovery will likely be long. A relatively rapid \u201ctechnical\u201d rebound in 3Q20 might be followed by materially slower growth later this year as the long-term costs of the crisis become clear. Social distancing measures are likely to persist, whether state-mandated or otherwise, well into next year. We expect a significant rise in corporate defaults and long-term unemployment, and increased public and private debt to weigh on aggregate demand. Uncertainty remains extremely high, related to the path of COVID-19, the behavior of firms and households, and the timing of the withdrawal of fiscal support.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> US: <\/strong> The lockdown of the US economy was less-stringent and shorter than its peers and our expectations and, consequently, the hit to GDP in 2Q20 is likely to be smaller than expected. However, we now forecast a significantly weaker recovery amid growing numbers of new COVID-19 cases in southern and western states. We also have concerns that the fiscal response might not be well targeted and could be withdrawn prematurely. In yearly average terms, we see GDP contracting by 7.4% this year (previously 10.5%) and expanding by 6.3% in 2021 (previously 11.4%). By 4Q21 we expect GDP to be about 1.5% below its pre-crisis level, approximately one percentage point lower than we initially estimated. The Fed is likely to keep rates on hold through 2022. We expect it to formally adopt flexible average-inflation targeting, and yield-curve control up to 2-3 years maturity, later this year.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Eurozone: <\/strong> The timing of the lifting of restrictions affects our short-term growth forecasts, but not our medium-term assessment. We have fine-tuned our GDP projections by raising the yearly average for 2020 to -11% from -13%, and reducing it for 2021 to +8% from +10%. This would still leave GDP some 3-4% below its pre-crisis level at the end of 2021, very much in line with our previous projections. The ECB is stepping up its action to preserve favorable financial conditions and safeguard the transmission of monetary policy as issuance of government debt intensifies. The European Commission\u2019s proposed recovery fund \u2013 named \u201cNext Generation EU\u201d \u2013 is a landmark initiative. It is the signaling effect, rather than its size, that makes this fund a potential game changer.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> CEE: <\/strong> Activity is gradually rebounding, helped by support packages ranging from 3.5% of GDP in Russia to 23.5% of GDP in Czechia. These packages also differ in scope, efficiency and speed of implementation. In EU-CEE, GDP is likely to fall by 8.3% in 2020 and to grow by 7.3% in 2021. Western Balkan economies could evolve similarly. Russia\u2019s economy may contract by 5.4% in 2020 and rebound by 3.8% next year. In Turkey, GDP could fall by 5.6% this year and grow by 6.6% in 2021. We expect additional rate cuts in Czechia, Romania, Russia, Serbia and Turkey. Only Czechia and Poland might consider raising rates in 2021.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> UK: <\/strong> The economy contracted by 20% in April after a drop of 5% in March, but with the economy reopening earlier than we had expected, 2Q20 might not be as bad as feared. GDP is likely to shrink 9% this year and rise 6.6% next year, the latter revised down in part due to the (premature) planned withdrawal of the Job Retention Scheme. A trade deal with the EU still seems likely, but the economic costs of not extending the transition period will be amplified by COVID-19. The BoE will likely keep rates on hold through 2021, while further increases in its stock of asset purchases hang in the balance.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> China: <\/strong> We expect GDP to stagnate in 2020, and to expand by 11.5% in 2021. Although the lockdown was removed in mid-March and mobility has picked up, consumers are still reluctant to spend and retail sales are struggling to recover. Factory activity, on the other hand, has improved strongly, with industrial value-added back to its pre-crisis level. Beijing has adopted a fiscal package equivalent to about 4% of GDP that we do not expect to be expanded, unless a second wave of contagion takes place at the national level. The PBoC stands ready to boost its lending facilities to support bank loans to micro and small firms.<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"f048df04c6f5e2f09941dd9ca902c3599ea6d17dd9fee004eac5f2884eb95a7d","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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CEE Quarterly

e2b67f80bbfba19f7126e612f02b8e74334ea0dc829748900eb4cd73ce1c876f;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":22722,"publicationDate":"25 Jun 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2020_177254.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRoriQuRq7XQDlwdnZSkPUJAw==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2020_177437.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRoaQO9Dr3O1_aap1TNAPxaTg==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"CEE Quarterly - CEE: Strong rebound, fragile recovery (3Q20)","titleDe":"CEE: Starker Aufschwung, zerbrechliche Erholung (3Q20)","titleIt":"","product":"CEE Quarterly","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Activity is rebounding in CEE as restrictions are being removed, but it remains well below the levels registered before the COVID-19 crisis. Moreover, the subsequent recovery is facing many risks.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Governments and central banks have implemented sizeable support programs that range from 3.5% of GDP in Russia to 23.5% of GDP in Czechia.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Support programs differ in size, scope, efficiency and speed of implementation. These characteristics will shape the recovery in 2H20 and 2021.<\/li><li>The biggest risk for CEE economies is a second wave of the pandemic, even if restrictions are not as tight as in March-May 2020.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> In EU-CEE1), we expect GDP to fall by 8.3% in 2020 and grow by 7.3% in 2021. Western Balkan economies could evolve similarly.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Russia\u2019s economy could contract by around 5.4%in 2020, with a 3.8% rebound next year.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> In Turkey, GDP could fall by approximately 5.6% this year and grow by 6.6% in 2021.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We expect additional rate cuts in Czechia, Romania, Russia, Serbia and Turkey. Only Czechia and Poland might consider raising rates in 2021.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Inflation targets could be met in 2020-21 but may be threatened thereafter if domestic demand rebounds.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> According to our models, the CZK, the HUF and the PLN are undervalued, but poor trade data and volatile risk appetite may cut potential rallies short; the RUB, RON and RSD are overvalued.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> ROMGBs and ROMANI EUR remain our top picks in the region, as the rating downgrade risk previously priced in to the bonds could continue to diminish.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> OFZs, POLGBs and long-end CZGBs offer attractive valuations but face FX risks.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The EU\u2019s Recovery and Resilience Facility is a game changer for EU-CEE but not in the next twelve months.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>1) EU-CEE comprises Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia \u2013 all CEE countries that are members of the EU.<\/p><\/p>","synopsisDe":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Die wirtschaftlichen Aktivit\u00e4ten in den CEE-L\u00e4ndern erholen sich wieder, da die Lockdown-Beschr\u00e4nkungen allm\u00e4hlich gelockert werden, aber sie bleiben deutlich unter dem Niveau vor der COVID-19-Krise. Dar\u00fcber hinaus ist die Erholung mit vielen Risiken verbunden.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Regierungen und Zentralbanken haben umfangreiche Unterst\u00fctzungsprogramme durchgef\u00fchrt, die von 3,5% des BIP in Russland bis 23,5% des BIP in Tschechien reichen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Die F\u00f6rderprogramme unterscheiden sich in Gr\u00f6\u00dfe, Umfang, Effizienz und Geschwindigkeit der Umsetzung. Diese Merkmale werden die Erholung im 2H20 und 2021 pr\u00e4gen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Das gr\u00f6\u00dfte Risiko f\u00fcr die CEE-Volkswirtschaften ist eine zweite Pandemiewelle, auch wenn die Restriktionen nicht so streng ausfallen wie im M\u00e4rz-Mai 2020.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> In EU-CEE<sup>1<\/sup>erwarten wir einen R\u00fcckgang des BIP um 8,3% im Jahr 2020 und ein Wachstum von 7,3% im Jahr 2021. Die Volkswirtschaften des Westbalkans k\u00f6nnten sich \u00e4hnlich entwickeln.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Russlands Wirtschaft d\u00fcrfte im Jahr 2020 um etwa 5,4% schrumpfen und im n\u00e4chsten Jahr wieder um 3,8% zulegen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> In der T\u00fcrkei k\u00f6nnte das BIP in diesem Jahr um etwa 5,6% sinken und 2021 um 6,6% wachsen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Wir erwarten weitere Zinssenkungen in Tschechien, Rum\u00e4nien, Russland, Serbien und der T\u00fcrkei. Lediglich Tschechien und Polen k\u00f6nnten im Jahr 2021 eine Zinserh\u00f6hung in Betracht ziehen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Die Inflationsziele d\u00fcrften in den Jahren 2020-21 erreicht werden, k\u00f6nnten aber anschlie\u00dfend in Gefahr geraten, wenn die Binnennachfrage wieder anzieht.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Unseren Modellen zufolge sind die CZK, der HUF und der PLN unterbewertet, aber schlechte Handelsdaten und eine volatile Risikobereitschaft k\u00f6nnen potenzielle Rallyes verk\u00fcrzen; der RUB, der RON und der RSD sind \u00fcberbewertet.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> ROMGBs und ROMANI EUR bleiben unsere Top-Empfehlung in der Region, da das zuvor in den Anleihen eingepreiste Risiko einer Rating-Herabstufung weiter abnehmen k\u00f6nnte.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> OFZs, POLGBs und langfristige CZGBs bieten attraktive Bewertungen, sind aber mit Wechselkursrisiken konfrontiert.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Die \"Recovery and Resilience Facility\" der EU ist f\u00fcr die EU-CEE-L\u00e4nder von entscheidender Bedeutung, jedoch nicht in den n\u00e4chsten zw\u00f6lf Monaten.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><sup>1<\/sup>EU-CEE umfasst Bulgarien, Kroatien, Tschechien, Ungarn, Polen, Rum\u00e4nien, die Slowakei und Slowenien - alles CEE-L\u00e4nder, die Mitglieder der EU sind.<\/p><\/p>","synopsisIt":"","hash":"e2b67f80bbfba19f7126e612f02b8e74334ea0dc829748900eb4cd73ce1c876f","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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Rates Perspectives

de6e192ee2b0adfb860cffe94b2fd52b2075b3e6e57223cb520052066d16e4fe;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":23280,"publicationDate":"14 Sep 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2020_177861.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVFcI2-vTFR2nyfW5CoPOGyGcSR2zWP6xCA==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Rates Perspectives - Heavier supply at the long end to meet with Fed QE","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Rates Perspectives","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> US marketable debt is likely to rise significantly in the coming quarters, with the Treasury probably aiming to lengthen debt maturity. Looking at the past, we analyze which impact a change in funding mix might have on the slope of the UST curve.<\/li><li> As foreign investors\u00b4 demand for USTs is likely to remain lukewarm in the near future, action by the Fed will be key to keeping yields subdued.<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"de6e192ee2b0adfb860cffe94b2fd52b2075b3e6e57223cb520052066d16e4fe","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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Chart of the Week

db4d162b30b2479dbd64126bc5f47882e11f76e378a7a66fe404b7053bdbc992;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":23303,"publicationDate":"16 Sep 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_177886.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJBWb-vzSjql6q8Is9HWXP84=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Chart of the Week - China overtaking the US as most important German export market","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Chart of the Week","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> German companies have recently been experiencing seismic shifts in terms of export destination by country. With an export share of 9%, China has become the single most important export market in the second quarter of 2020 before the US with 8%. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The major driver behind the latest changes has been, of course, the COVID-19 shock. Given the earlier rebound in the Chinese economy, German companies already increased their exports to China in 2Q20. Going forward, China is likely to remain the number one for some time, given the headwinds in the US caused by the coronavirus.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The exact antipode was the UK recently. With an export share of only about 4\u00bd, the UK became only the ninth most important export market after being ranked fifth in 2019 with about 6%. It was even the lowest export share since the mid-1970s. <\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"db4d162b30b2479dbd64126bc5f47882e11f76e378a7a66fe404b7053bdbc992","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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US Election Brief

02a67fc251dfa006fc32ce11e54ff1769452ae06eab4d8536e4a454fe0d3c280;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":23284,"publicationDate":"14 Sep 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_177864.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJBWb-vzSjql6ZPdDN5bCVvk=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_177877.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJBWb-vzSjql6tlR0CuawiUI=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"US Election Brief: The five key messages from opinion polls","titleDe":"US-Wahl: Die f\u00fcnf Kernbotschaften der Meinungsumfragen","titleIt":"","product":"Economics Flash","synopsis":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>This article is the first in a planned series covering the US election. The next edition will be on the economic policies of the presidential nominees.<\/p><\/p><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> If current opinion polls are right, Joe Biden is on course to become the 46th President of the United States. But the polls are close enough that anything can still happen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> While a divisive figure, Donald Trump can count on a solid and stable electoral basis. Joe Biden likely needs a high turnout to secure victory.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> When it comes to Congress, Democrats look almost certain to retain control of the House of Representatives. The Senate remains an open battle.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><em>Dieser Artikel ist die deutsche \u00dcbersetzung des ersten Beitrags einer geplanten Serie zu den US-Wahlen. Die n\u00e4chste Ausgabe wird sich mit der Wirtschaftspolitik der Pr\u00e4sidentschaftskandidaten befassen.<\/em><\/p><\/p><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Bewahrheiten sich die Meinungsumfragen, dann ist der Demokrat Joe Biden auf bestem Weg, der 46. Pr\u00e4sident der Vereinigten Staaten zu werden. Allerdings liegen die Umfragewerte so eng beieinander, dass noch alles m\u00f6glich ist.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Donald Trump ist zwar eine extrem polarisierende Person, kann sich aber auf eine solide und stabile W\u00e4hlerbasis st\u00fctzen. Joe Biden braucht wahrscheinlich eine hohe Wahlbeteiligung, um sich den Sieg zu sichern. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Mit Blick auf den Kongress (Parlament) d\u00fcrften die Demokraten (fast sicher) die Kontrolle \u00fcber das Repr\u00e4sentantenhaus behalten. Das Rennen um den Senat erscheint hingegen v\u00f6llig offen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"","hash":"02a67fc251dfa006fc32ce11e54ff1769452ae06eab4d8536e4a454fe0d3c280","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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Euro Credit Pilot Strategy

82a7d378e8cd59658cec7814045cd01b7a44f79ccdfecaf7a6e4a659cf71bd55;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":21554,"publicationDate":"14 Feb 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2020_175974.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVFcI2-vTFR2nw6n3SIBxpGTmDpAUviCpvg==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2020_176061.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVFcI2-vTFR2nNTt7vdgznH-Jqun0zij8HQ==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Shortened version of the Euro Credit Pilot (February 2020)","titleDe":"Gek\u00fcrzte Version des Euro Credit Pilot (Februar 2020)","titleIt":"","product":"Euro Credit Pilot - Strategy","synopsis":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>This is a shortened version of the Euro Credit Pilot, which we deem to be an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit under MiFID II.<\/p><\/p><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Introduction: <\/strong> The outbreak of the coronavirus has already led to the disruption of global supply chains, with numerous producers across sectors reporting production halts at facilities in China. The related uncertainties warrant defensive positioning in European credit.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Macro Outlook: <\/strong> So far there is little data on the initial impact on the global economy, and comparisons with the SARS outbreak in 2002 are not straightforward. But 1Q growth-related data will be negative.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Micro Fundamentals: <\/strong> Sluggish earnings growth in Europe will negatively impact companies\u2019 credit fundamentals.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Credit Quality Trend: <\/strong> The global economic outlook has become clouded, and the risk of economic slowdown in China due to the coronavirus has increased. Thus, the overall credit quality of European companies will likely decrease as indicated by the potential number of fallen angels.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Market Technicals: <\/strong> With the intensification of CSPP purchases, particularly in the primary market, the ECB is providing continuous support.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Valuation &amp; Timing: <\/strong> We are keeping our end-2020 spread projections unchanged.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Sector Allocation &amp; Recommendation Overview: <\/strong> Uncertainties related to the coronavirus and its ramifications for Chinese growth and the global supply chain warrant defensive positioning. In this context, we lower our recommendation on Automobiles &amp; Parts to underweight from marketweight. We also lower our recommendation on Basic Resources to marketweight from overweight.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>\u00dcbersetzung der Originalversion vom 14. Februar 2020<\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p> Diese Publikation ist eine gek\u00fcrzte Version unseres Euro Credit Pilot, die wir als annehmbare geringf\u00fcgige nicht-monet\u00e4re Zuwendung gem\u00e4\u00df MiFID II betrachten.<\/p><\/p><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Einf\u00fchrung: <\/strong> Der Ausbruch des Coronavirus hat bereits zu einer Unterbrechung der globalen Lieferketten gef\u00fchrt, wobei zahlreiche Produzenten aus allen Sektoren von Produktionsstopps in chinesischen Anlagen berichten. Die damit verbundenen Unsicherheiten rechtfertigen eine defensive Positionierung im europ\u00e4ischen Kreditmarkt.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Makro-Outlook: <\/strong> Bislang gibt es nur wenige Daten \u00fcber die ersten Auswirkungen auf die Weltwirtschaft, und Vergleiche mit dem SARS-Ausbruch im Jahr 2002 sind nicht ohne weiteres m\u00f6glich. Aber die wachstumsbezogenen Daten f\u00fcr das 1. Quartal werden negativ sein.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Mikro-Grundlagen: <\/strong> Das schleppende Gewinnwachstum in Europa wird sich negativ auf die Kreditqualit\u00e4t der Unternehmen auswirken.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Entwicklung der Kreditqualit\u00e4t: <\/strong> Die globalen Wirtschaftsaussichten haben sich eingetr\u00fcbt, und das Risiko einer wirtschaftlichen Verlangsamung in China aufgrund des Coronavirus hat sich erh\u00f6ht. Somit wird die allgemeine Kreditqualit\u00e4t europ\u00e4ischer Unternehmen wahrscheinlich abnehmen, wie die potenzielle Zahl der \u201egefallenen Engel\u201c zeigt.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Markttechnische Fragen: <\/strong> Mit der Intensivierung der CSPP-K\u00e4ufe, insbesondere auf dem Prim\u00e4rmarkt, leistet die EZB kontinuierliche Unterst\u00fctzung.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Bewertung und Zeitplanung: <\/strong> Wir halten an unseren Spread-Prognosen per Ende 2020 fest.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> \u00dcbersicht \u00fcber die Sektorallokation und Empfehlungen: <\/strong> Die Unsicherheiten im Zusammenhang mit dem Coronavirus und seinen Auswirkungen auf das chinesische Wachstum und die globale Lieferkette rechtfertigen eine defensive Positionierung. In diesem Zusammenhang senken wir unsere Empfehlung zu Automobiles &amp; Parts auf untergewichten von marktgewichten. Wir senken auch unsere Empfehlung f\u00fcr Basic-Resources auf marktgewichten von \u00fcbergewichten.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"","hash":"82a7d378e8cd59658cec7814045cd01b7a44f79ccdfecaf7a6e4a659cf71bd55","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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