HOME >  Research available without registration
Banner

Research available without registration

Chief Economist's Comment

851d3b04c4f15481673b7e1c9974bf392c5e726a216381c4bd925f7b0dd453c3;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":24133,"publicationDate":"13 Dec 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_178776.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJJw9kLstEFPE48cAf5wS4T8=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_178776.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJJw9kLstEFPE48cAf5wS4T8=&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_178776.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJJw9kLstEFPE48cAf5wS4T8=&T=1"},"title":"Chief Economist\u00b4s Comment - Sunday Wrap","titleDe":"Sunday Wrap: Kurzzusammenfassung","titleIt":"Sunday Wrap: Breve riassunto","product":"Chief Economist's Comment","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> From the world of science, I learned three key lessons<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> From the world of politics, I also learned three key lessons<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> That leads me to the world of policies, where I learned one or two intertwined key lessons<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> And what did I learn about markets this past year of dislocations and confusion about temporary shocks versus structural shifts, as well as about policies and their impact' I count four markets-related lessons<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Finally, I have drawn four lessons from this past year with respect to the future of work, including Work-From-Home (WFH) arrangements and the Work-Life-Balance<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><em>Publikation nur auf Englisch verf\u00fcgbar<\/em><\/p><\/p><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Aus der Welt der Wissenschaft habe ich drei wesentliche Lektionen gelernt.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Aus der Welt der Politik habe ich ebenfalls drei wesentliche Erkenntnisse gewonnen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Im Hinblick auf die Fiskal- und Geldpolitik habe ich eine bzw. zwei miteinander verkn\u00fcpfte Lektionen gelernt.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Und was habe ich \u00fcber die M\u00e4rkte gelernt in diesem Jahr, das gepr\u00e4gt war von Verwerfungen und Verwirrung, ob wir es mit tempor\u00e4ren Schocks oder strukturellen Verlagerungen zu tun haben, sowie hinsichtlich politischer Vorgaben und deren Auswirkungen' Meine Z\u00e4hlung ergibt vier marktbezogene Lektionen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Zu guter Letzt habe ich vier Lektionen zur Zukunft der Arbeit aus dem hinter uns liegenden Jahr abgeleitet, inklusive der Ans\u00e4tze f\u00fcr das Arbeiten von zu Hause aus (Home Office) und f\u00fcr ein ausgewogenes Verh\u00e4ltnis zwischen Berufs- und Privatleben (Work-Life-Balance).<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><em>Pubblicazione disponibile solo in inglese<\/em><\/p><\/p><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Dal mondo della scienza, ho appreso tre lezioni chiave;<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Dal mondo della politica, ho appeso ugualmente tre lezioni chiave\u2026<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> \u2026che mi portano al modo delle politiche economiche, dove ho imparato uno o due lezioni chiave intrecciate tra loro<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> E cosa ho appreso sul comportamento dei mercati durante quest\u2019anno di discontinuit\u00e0 e confusione tra shock temporanei e cambiamenti strutturali, al pari delle politiche economiche e del loro impatto' Qui conto quattro lezioni legate ai mercati<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"MIBEditorial\"><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Infine, ho tratto quattro lezioni sul futuro del mercato del lavoro, incluso il lavoro da casa e il bilanciamento tra tempi di lavoro e vita privata<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","hash":"851d3b04c4f15481673b7e1c9974bf392c5e726a216381c4bd925f7b0dd453c3","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

Loading...

Macro & Markets

20815b83b88fe05fc7824014b0114b11f5d8bc3118208db6f4a3191e21cc6848;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":23915,"publicationDate":"19 Nov 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_178540.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJAq2DaQTse-lU2vVf2JFQ2c=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_178658.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJOcUrK41MJZKckCJtp_Up7U=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"The UniCredit Macro & Markets - 2021-22 Outlook: The tantalizing prospect of normality","titleDe":"UniCredit Macro & Markets \u2013 2021-22 Outlook: Verlockende Aussicht auf Normalit\u00e4t","titleIt":"","product":"Macro & Markets","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Macro: <\/strong> New restrictions in Europe and the US will weigh on economic activity in the near term. Vaccines and medical treatments for COVID-19 are expected to gradually support a recovery in 2H21 and set the economy on course for solid growth in 2022. Monetary policy is likely to remain very loose as inflation undershoots target levels.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> FI: <\/strong> After marking new record lows in 2020, we expect long-term Bund and UST yields to move higher and reach -0.30% and 1.30%, respectively, by YE 2021, with curves bear-steepening. Real yields are set to stay well below zero over the next year. We forecast that the 10Y BTP-Bund spread will trade around 115bp throughout 2021.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> FX: <\/strong> Risk appetite will be a key driver of G10 FX and we think that more weakness lies ahead for the USD. We target 1.28 for the EUR-USD at YE 2021. We also expect the impact of Brexit on the UK economy to send EUR-GBP to 0.94 and we project that EUR-CHF will rise to 1.11. USD-JPY will likely drop below 100.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Equities: <\/strong> With strongly recovering company earnings, we forecast double-digit returns for European equities in 2021, although the path towards higher prices might not be smooth. After a solid 2020, we expect defensive sectors to lose appeal and recommend broadly cyclical exposure.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Credit: <\/strong> Squeezed by asset purchases and low net supply, IG credit spreads seem set to tighten to historical lows in 2021. We think that lower tiers of the capital structure and HY will attract good demand and deliver interesting returns. Yield hunting and solid credit quality also speak for tighter spreads across EM hard-currency credit.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><strong><table cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:1<\/strong>100%\"> \t<tbody> \t\t<tr> \t\t\t<td colspan=\"6\"> \t\t\t<p>Gek\u00fcrzte \u00dcbersetzung der englischen Originalversion vom 19. November 2020<\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p> \t\t\t<\/p><\/p><p> \t\t\t<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Macro: <\/strong> Neue Restriktionen in Europa und den USA werden die Wirtschaftst\u00e4tigkeit in naher Zukunft belasten. Wir erwarten, dass Impfstoffe und medizinische Behandlungen f\u00fcr COVID-19 im 2H21 allm\u00e4hlich eine Erholung unterst\u00fctzen und die Wirtschaft auf einen soliden Wachstumskurs im Jahr 2022 bringen werden. Die Geldpolitik d\u00fcrfte sehr locker bleiben, da die Inflation die Zielwerte unterschreitet.<\/p> \t\t\t<p><\/li><li><strong> FI: <\/strong> Nachdem wir im Jahr 2020 neue Rekordtiefs markiert haben, erwarten wir, dass die langfristigen Bund- und UST-Renditen steigen und bis zum Jahresende 2021 -0,30% bzw. 1,30% erreichen werden, wobei die Kurven steiler werden. Die realen Renditen d\u00fcrften im n\u00e4chsten Jahr deutlich unter null bleiben. Wir prognostizieren, dass der 10J BTP-Bund Spread im Laufe des Jahres 2021 um 115 Bp handeln wird.<\/p> \t\t\t<p><\/li><li><strong> FX: <\/strong> Die Risikobereitschaft wird ein Hauptantriebsfaktor f\u00fcr die G10-W\u00e4hrungen sein und wir glauben, dass der USD vor einer weiteren Schw\u00e4chephase stehen wird. Unser EUR-USD-Ziel f\u00fcr das Jahresende 2021 liegt bei 1,28. Wir erwarten auch, dass der Einfluss von Brexit auf die britische Wirtschaft EUR-GBP auf 0,94 steigen l\u00e4sst und gehen von einem EUR-CHF-Anstieg auf 1,11 aus. USD-JPY wird voraussichtlich unter 100 fallen.<\/p> \t\t\t<p><\/li><li><strong> Equities: <\/strong> Bei sich stark erholenden Unternehmensgewinnen prognostizieren wir f\u00fcr 2021 zweistellige Zuw\u00e4chse in europ\u00e4ischen Aktien, auch wenn der Weg zu h\u00f6heren Kursen m\u00f6glicherweise nicht gleichm\u00e4\u00dfig verlaufen wird. Nach einem soliden Jahr 2020 erwarten wir, dass die defensiven Sektoren an Attraktivit\u00e4t verlieren werden und empfehlen ein \u00fcberwiegend zyklisches Engagement.<\/p> \t\t\t<p><\/li><li><strong> Credit: <\/strong> Unterst\u00fctzt durch den Kauf von Anleihen durch die EZB und ein geringes Nettoangebot, d\u00fcrften sich die IG Kreditspreads im Jahr 2021 auf historische Tiefstst\u00e4nde einengen. Wir glauben, dass niedrigere Stufen der Kapitalstruktur und HY eine gute Nachfrage anlocken und interessante Ertr\u00e4ge liefern werden. Die Renditejagd und eine solide Kreditqualit\u00e4t sprechen auch f\u00fcr engere Spreads bei Unternehmensanleihen in Hartw\u00e4hrung in den Schwellenl\u00e4ndern.<\/p> \t\t\t<\/td> \t\t<\/tr> \t<\/tbody> <\/table><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"","hash":"20815b83b88fe05fc7824014b0114b11f5d8bc3118208db6f4a3191e21cc6848","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

Loading...

Economics Chartbook / Macro & Markets Outlook

88833585496baa5d9e148f1a4f64d8a9c6fc1c1d28c961549c12778eebbd14d4;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":23915,"publicationDate":"19 Nov 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_178540.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJAq2DaQTse-lU2vVf2JFQ2c=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_178658.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJOcUrK41MJZKckCJtp_Up7U=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"The UniCredit Macro & Markets - 2021-22 Outlook: The tantalizing prospect of normality","titleDe":"UniCredit Macro & Markets \u2013 2021-22 Outlook: Verlockende Aussicht auf Normalit\u00e4t","titleIt":"","product":"Macro & Markets","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Macro: <\/strong> New restrictions in Europe and the US will weigh on economic activity in the near term. Vaccines and medical treatments for COVID-19 are expected to gradually support a recovery in 2H21 and set the economy on course for solid growth in 2022. Monetary policy is likely to remain very loose as inflation undershoots target levels.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> FI: <\/strong> After marking new record lows in 2020, we expect long-term Bund and UST yields to move higher and reach -0.30% and 1.30%, respectively, by YE 2021, with curves bear-steepening. Real yields are set to stay well below zero over the next year. We forecast that the 10Y BTP-Bund spread will trade around 115bp throughout 2021.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> FX: <\/strong> Risk appetite will be a key driver of G10 FX and we think that more weakness lies ahead for the USD. We target 1.28 for the EUR-USD at YE 2021. We also expect the impact of Brexit on the UK economy to send EUR-GBP to 0.94 and we project that EUR-CHF will rise to 1.11. USD-JPY will likely drop below 100.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Equities: <\/strong> With strongly recovering company earnings, we forecast double-digit returns for European equities in 2021, although the path towards higher prices might not be smooth. After a solid 2020, we expect defensive sectors to lose appeal and recommend broadly cyclical exposure.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Credit: <\/strong> Squeezed by asset purchases and low net supply, IG credit spreads seem set to tighten to historical lows in 2021. We think that lower tiers of the capital structure and HY will attract good demand and deliver interesting returns. Yield hunting and solid credit quality also speak for tighter spreads across EM hard-currency credit.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><strong><table cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"width:1<\/strong>100%\"> \t<tbody> \t\t<tr> \t\t\t<td colspan=\"6\"> \t\t\t<p>Gek\u00fcrzte \u00dcbersetzung der englischen Originalversion vom 19. November 2020<\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p> \t\t\t<\/p><\/p><p> \t\t\t<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Macro: <\/strong> Neue Restriktionen in Europa und den USA werden die Wirtschaftst\u00e4tigkeit in naher Zukunft belasten. Wir erwarten, dass Impfstoffe und medizinische Behandlungen f\u00fcr COVID-19 im 2H21 allm\u00e4hlich eine Erholung unterst\u00fctzen und die Wirtschaft auf einen soliden Wachstumskurs im Jahr 2022 bringen werden. Die Geldpolitik d\u00fcrfte sehr locker bleiben, da die Inflation die Zielwerte unterschreitet.<\/p> \t\t\t<p><\/li><li><strong> FI: <\/strong> Nachdem wir im Jahr 2020 neue Rekordtiefs markiert haben, erwarten wir, dass die langfristigen Bund- und UST-Renditen steigen und bis zum Jahresende 2021 -0,30% bzw. 1,30% erreichen werden, wobei die Kurven steiler werden. Die realen Renditen d\u00fcrften im n\u00e4chsten Jahr deutlich unter null bleiben. Wir prognostizieren, dass der 10J BTP-Bund Spread im Laufe des Jahres 2021 um 115 Bp handeln wird.<\/p> \t\t\t<p><\/li><li><strong> FX: <\/strong> Die Risikobereitschaft wird ein Hauptantriebsfaktor f\u00fcr die G10-W\u00e4hrungen sein und wir glauben, dass der USD vor einer weiteren Schw\u00e4chephase stehen wird. Unser EUR-USD-Ziel f\u00fcr das Jahresende 2021 liegt bei 1,28. Wir erwarten auch, dass der Einfluss von Brexit auf die britische Wirtschaft EUR-GBP auf 0,94 steigen l\u00e4sst und gehen von einem EUR-CHF-Anstieg auf 1,11 aus. USD-JPY wird voraussichtlich unter 100 fallen.<\/p> \t\t\t<p><\/li><li><strong> Equities: <\/strong> Bei sich stark erholenden Unternehmensgewinnen prognostizieren wir f\u00fcr 2021 zweistellige Zuw\u00e4chse in europ\u00e4ischen Aktien, auch wenn der Weg zu h\u00f6heren Kursen m\u00f6glicherweise nicht gleichm\u00e4\u00dfig verlaufen wird. Nach einem soliden Jahr 2020 erwarten wir, dass die defensiven Sektoren an Attraktivit\u00e4t verlieren werden und empfehlen ein \u00fcberwiegend zyklisches Engagement.<\/p> \t\t\t<p><\/li><li><strong> Credit: <\/strong> Unterst\u00fctzt durch den Kauf von Anleihen durch die EZB und ein geringes Nettoangebot, d\u00fcrften sich die IG Kreditspreads im Jahr 2021 auf historische Tiefstst\u00e4nde einengen. Wir glauben, dass niedrigere Stufen der Kapitalstruktur und HY eine gute Nachfrage anlocken und interessante Ertr\u00e4ge liefern werden. Die Renditejagd und eine solide Kreditqualit\u00e4t sprechen auch f\u00fcr engere Spreads bei Unternehmensanleihen in Hartw\u00e4hrung in den Schwellenl\u00e4ndern.<\/p> \t\t\t<\/td> \t\t<\/tr> \t<\/tbody> <\/table><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"","hash":"88833585496baa5d9e148f1a4f64d8a9c6fc1c1d28c961549c12778eebbd14d4","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

Loading...

CEE Quarterly

e2b67f80bbfba19f7126e612f02b8e74334ea0dc829748900eb4cd73ce1c876f;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":24272,"publicationDate":"13 Jan 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2021_178928.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRozlcCgEKTWgv-25mWQRJ_Fg==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"CEE Quarterly - A path to recovery (1Q21)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"CEE Quarterly","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We expect economies in EU-CEE and in the western Balkans, to grow by around 3.3% in 2021 after slumping by close to 5% in 2020. A weak start to 2021, lower fiscal support, looser labor-market conditions, delayed investment and external risks could result in an incomplete recovery. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> GDP in EU-CEE and the western Balkans could return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022, when growth could accelerate to more than 4%. Interest rates could be increased in Czechia at the end of 2021 and in Poland and Romania in 2022.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> EU support in the form of the European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE), Next Generation EU (NGEU) and the 2021-27 EU budget could support the recovery in EU-CEE in 2022 and beyond. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> IN EU-CEE, only the NBR is expected to cut rates in 2021. The CNB could be the first central bank to increase rates in 2H21, followed by the NBP and the NBR in 2H22. Central banks could purchase more bonds if state funding needs rise above current plans. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> In Turkey, economic growth could accelerate from around 1.2% in 2020, to 2.9% in 2021 and 4% in 2022. Without structural reforms, most of the monetary tightening implemented in 2020 could be reversed in 2021 to spur lending and growth. This strategy is not sustainable, and may only serve to put pressure back on the current account, the currency and rates. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> After declining by almost 4% in 2020, the Russian economy could grow by 2.2-2.3% in 2021 and 2022. The central bank could keep the policy rate at 4.25% in 2021-22 if inflation remains below the 4% target.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The COVID-19 pandemic will continue to affect CEE countries in 2021, with herd immunity reached this year only if vaccination accelerates significantly. However, restrictions and their negative economic impact could be much milder next winter than they are currently.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> In 2021, government anti-pandemic support will decline compared to 2020 in all CEE countries but Bulgaria. Indirect support could be less efficient than last year, unless governments focus on grants, rather than loans to SMEs. Labor-market support may be needed to avoid a large second wave of layoffs. Support could be withdrawn starting in 2H21. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Political noise will be a risk in Bulgaria and Czechia, where parliamentary elections will be held in 2021.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Democracy in CEE would benefit if the US administration returns to multilateralism.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> In the next two years, EU fund disbursements are unlikely to be tied to observing the rule of law. <\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"e2b67f80bbfba19f7126e612f02b8e74334ea0dc829748900eb4cd73ce1c876f","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

Loading...

Rates Perspectives

de6e192ee2b0adfb860cffe94b2fd52b2075b3e6e57223cb520052066d16e4fe;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":24229,"publicationDate":"08 Jan 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2021_178879.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVCsY1pNwWYpSxYneOq3LGyt4eyF56Lnjig==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Rates Perspectives - Italy\u2019s 2021 funding: We still favor the 5Y tenor","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Rates Perspectives","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Heavy government-bond issuance in Italy is set to continue in 2021. The amount of medium-term and long-term (M\/L) bond issuance (all instruments) in 2021 might be around EUR 345bn, which is roughly in line with that of 2020. Because there will be a higher amount of redemptions in 2021 compared to 2020, this will result in slightly lower net market funding compared to 2020: EUR 120bn in 2021, compared to EUR 145bn in 2020. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We expect Italy to continue lengthening its debt maturity in 2021. Its cost of debt will likely decline further and could fall from 2.40% to 2.10-2.15% if our rate forecasts prove correct. At the end of 2021, we estimate that the Eurosystem will hold 27-28% of Italy marketable debt. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The portion of issuance at the 3Y and the 5Y (to a lesser extent) tenors will likely decline compared to what it was in 2020, while the portion of funding allocated at the 10Y should remain very heavy. We expect supply pressure to remain sizeable at the extra-long maturities. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Based on the supply outlook and our rate view, our favorite trades on the BTP curve are long 5Y vs. 10Y and long 5Y vs. 2Y, or a combination of the two in a barbell, going long 5Y vs. the wings. <\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"de6e192ee2b0adfb860cffe94b2fd52b2075b3e6e57223cb520052066d16e4fe","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

Loading...

Chart of the Week

db4d162b30b2479dbd64126bc5f47882e11f76e378a7a66fe404b7053bdbc992;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":24294,"publicationDate":"15 Jan 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_178951.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJLmrrwvNVFgwzJJ8yCNS1Do=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Chart of the Week - Spike in indebtedness overstates the vulnerability of eurozone firms ","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Chart of the Week","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Our Chart of the Week shows the evolution of two measures of indebtedness of eurozone non-financial corporations (NFCs). Gross debt includes loans and debt securities, while net debt subtracts from gross debt the liquid assets held by firms, namely currency and deposits. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The pandemic has pushed up both gauges. However, gross debt (as a share of gross value added) has increased significantly more and currently stands at its highest level on record, while net debt remains comfortably within the range prevailing since the credit crisis of 2008-09, and clearly below the peak reached in the aftermath of the sovereign-debt crisis. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Gross debt tends to be used more frequently in economic analysis, but we argue that at this juncture, net debt provides a more informative picture. As a matter of fact, the increase in net indebtedness since the outbreak of COVID-19 has been totally driven by a denominator effect (i.e. the contraction in gross value added), while the numerator \u2013 the level of net debt \u2013 has hardly changed. The reason is that eurozone firms have boosted their borrowing during the pandemic mainly to increase their liquidity buffers for precautionary motives amid the lack of visibility. Therefore, the spike in gross debt overstates the vulnerability of eurozone firms to increased leverage. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> As a note of caution, one should consider that our chart provides an aggregate picture, while the pandemic has created unprecedented divergence among sectors. Those businesses most hit by COVID-19 (such as tourism and transport) are likely to have suffered a much more significant deterioration in their financial position than is suggested by our chart.<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"db4d162b30b2479dbd64126bc5f47882e11f76e378a7a66fe404b7053bdbc992","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

Loading...

UniCredit Investor Call/Webcast

c98ff14f4aa4a084311caad318a16825a0c738e328624e261e6d93fe943aad28;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":22567,"publicationDate":"08 Jun 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_177086.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJCc1A_K5r6eeorfVqhljgZc=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Scenario macroeconomico 2020 e implicazioni di mercato","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Marketing Material","synopsis":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\">Il Pil di Eurozona nel 2019 era EUR 11.9 tn<\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><strong>Consenso per il 2020: <\/strong> -8% => PIL 2020 intorno a EUR 10.9 tn \u2013 caduta intorno a EUR 1 tn<\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><strong>Previsioni UniCredit per il 2020: <\/strong> -13% => PIL 2020 intorno a EUR 10.4 tn \u2013 caduta intorno a EUR 1.5 tn <\/p>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"c98ff14f4aa4a084311caad318a16825a0c738e328624e261e6d93fe943aad28","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

Loading...

Euro Credit Pilot Strategy

82a7d378e8cd59658cec7814045cd01b7a44f79ccdfecaf7a6e4a659cf71bd55;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":24050,"publicationDate":"03 Dec 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2020_178685.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVFcI2-vTFR2npiIhNkXBBHa2N8hoO2XWEw==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2020_178812.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVFcI2-vTFR2n65M1ZiLkezQQ5vDJdlNayQ==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Shortened version of the Euro Credit Pilot (December 2020)","titleDe":"Gek\u00fcrzte Version des Euro Credit Pilot (Dezember 2020)","titleIt":"","product":"Euro Credit Pilot - Strategy","synopsis":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>This is a shortened version of the Euro Credit Pilot, which we deem to be an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit under MiFID II.<\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented uncertainty in the global economic outlook, implying low visibility into the future. In our base scenario, while the macro picture might be uncertain, particularly at the beginning of 2021, we expect, however, the credit market to see another strong year, supported by an economic rebound from 2Q and technical factors.<\/p><\/p>","synopsisDe":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><em>\u00dcbersetzung der englischen Originalversion vom 3. Dezember 2020<\/em><\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><em>Diese Publikation ist eine gek\u00fcrzte Version unseres Euro Credit Pilot, die wir als annehmbare geringf\u00fcgige nicht-monet\u00e4re Zuwendung gem\u00e4\u00df MiFID II betrachten. <\/em><\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>Die COVID-19-Pandemie hat eine noch nie dagewesene wirtschaftliche Unsicherheit geschaffen, was eine hohe Prognoseunsicherheit mit sich bringt. In unserem Basisszenario gehen wir jedoch davon aus, dass der Markt f\u00fcr Unternehmensanleihen trotz der Unsicherheit in der makro\u00f6konomischen Entwicklung, insbesondere zu Beginn des Jahres 2021, ein weiteres starkes Jahr erleben wird. Unterst\u00fctzung kommt dabei vor allem durch eine wirtschaftliche Erholung ab dem 2. Quartal und technische Faktoren.<\/p><\/p>","synopsisIt":"","hash":"82a7d378e8cd59658cec7814045cd01b7a44f79ccdfecaf7a6e4a659cf71bd55","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

Loading...