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Chief Economist's Comment

851d3b04c4f15481673b7e1c9974bf392c5e726a216381c4bd925f7b0dd453c3;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":25522,"publicationDate":"13 Jun 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_180396.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJO-OjE-wCTf-mTPPqXyadRs=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_180396.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJO-OjE-wCTf-mTPPqXyadRs=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_180396.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJO-OjE-wCTf-mTPPqXyadRs=&T=1&T=1"},"title":"Chief Economist\u00b4s Comment - Sunday Wrap","titleDe":"Sunday Wrap: Kurzzusammenfassung","titleIt":"Sunday Wrap: Breve riassunto","product":"Chief Economist's Comment","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Multilateralism is back, but it is easy to see the fragilities right there beneath the surface.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> To address the \u201cinternal challenges\u201d \u2013 growth and income distribution - G7 agreed to keep pushing with fiscal expansion.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> To address the \u201cexternal challenges\u201d \u2013 primarily China\u2019s global diplomacy to win friends \u2013 G7 agreed to donate massive amount of vaccine and to help finance climate change policies in emerging markets.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><em>Publikation nur auf Englisch verf\u00fcgbar <\/em><\/p><\/p><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Der Multilateralismus ist zur\u00fcck, aber die Anf\u00e4lligkeiten direkt unter der Oberfl\u00e4che sind leicht erkennbar.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Um die \u201einternen Herausforderungen\u201c \u2013 Wachstum und Einkommensverteilung \u2013 anzugehen, kamen die G7-Staaten \u00fcberein, die fiskalpolitische Expansion weiter voranzutreiben.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Zum Umgang mit den \u201eexternen Herausforderungen \u2013 prim\u00e4r Chinas globale Diplomatie, um Freunde zu gewinnen \u2013 vereinbarten die G7, umfangreiche Impfstoffmengen zu spenden und zur Finanzierung von Klimaschutzma\u00dfnahmen in Schwellenl\u00e4ndern beizutragen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><em>Pubblicazione disponibile solo in inglese<\/em><\/p><\/p><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Il multilateralismo \u00e8 tornato, ma \u00e8 facile intravederne le fragilit\u00e0 sotto la superficie.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Per affrontare le \"sfide interne\" - crescita e distribuzione del reddito - il G7 ha concordato di continuare a sostenere l'espansione fiscale.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Per affrontare le \"sfide esterne\" - principalmente la diplomazia globale della Cina alla ricerca di \u201camici\u201d - il G7 ha concordato di donare un consistente numero di vaccini e di contribuire al finanziamento delle politiche di cambiamento climatico nei mercati emergenti.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","hash":"851d3b04c4f15481673b7e1c9974bf392c5e726a216381c4bd925f7b0dd453c3","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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Economics Chartbook / Macro & Markets Outlook

88833585496baa5d9e148f1a4f64d8a9c6fc1c1d28c961549c12778eebbd14d4;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":24938,"publicationDate":"30 Mar 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179702.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJB57xGVxqtJbiRfNezn8oyQ=&&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Economics Chartbook - The US leads the way to a brighter outlook (2Q21)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"The Unicredit Economics Chartbook","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Global: <\/strong> We have revised up our global GDP growth forecast for this year to 5.8% while leaving our forecast for next year unchanged at 4.5%. The change to our outlook mainly reflects additional fiscal support in the US, with some positive spillover effe<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"88833585496baa5d9e148f1a4f64d8a9c6fc1c1d28c961549c12778eebbd14d4","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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CEE Quarterly

e2b67f80bbfba19f7126e612f02b8e74334ea0dc829748900eb4cd73ce1c876f;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":24939,"publicationDate":"30 Mar 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2021_179703.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRowj6TkjKKn2ls2gVPgAyjlQ==&&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2021_179875.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRoEdA9viEd5lMZpoEVNJjC3g==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"CEE Quarterly - Stronger recovery requires pandemic control (2Q21)","titleDe":"CEE Quarterly - St\u00e4rkere Erholung erfordert Kontrolle der Pandemie (2Q21)","titleIt":"","product":"CEE Quarterly","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We expect EU-CEE economies to grow by 3.9% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022. Last year\u2019s economic losses could be recovered this year in Hungary, Poland and Romania and the next year elsewhere. The western Balkans could outpace EU-CEE.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Russia could grow by 2.5-3% in 2021-22 and the Turkish economy is likely to grow at 4.7% in 2021 and 2.3% in 2022 after avoiding a contraction in 2020. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Failure to control the pandemic could slow the recovery by affecting services and construction. Vaccination is not enough to avoid future lockdowns, with governments having to test, track and trace more than they do at the moment. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Households and companies are both in a good position to start spending once restrictions are eased. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Government may have to increase economic support if the pandemic is not controlled. With few exceptions, fiscal impulses are likely to be negative in 2021-22.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> CEE benefits from larger stable capital flows than other EM. EU transfers in EU-CEE and the western Balkans will ensure positive extended basic balances in all countries but Romania. Revenue from commodity exports will boost reserves in Russia. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> A move to looser monetary policy could widen macroeconomic imbalances in Turkey, forcing an adjustment of the C\/A and affecting the exchange rate, inflation and growth. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The main economic risks are a slow recovery amid a raging pandemic and, in Turkey, a forced adjustment of the economy.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Elections in Bulgaria and Czechia are highly uncertain due to the incumbent administrations\u2019 handling of the pandemic. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Russia faces limited sanctions related to Nord Stream 2, but more consequential sanctions related to potential interference in US elections. In an extreme scenario, the OFZ market could be affected.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We see limited risk of crippling sanctions against Turkey from the EU and the US.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>\u00dcbersetzung der englischen Originalversion vom 30. M\u00e4rz 2021<\/p><\/p><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Wir erwarten, dass die EU-CEE-Volkswirtschaften im Jahr 2021 um 3,9% und im Jahr 2022 um 4,5% wachsen werden. Die wirtschaftlichen Verluste des letzten Jahres k\u00f6nnten in diesem Jahr in Ungarn, Polen und Rum\u00e4nien und im n\u00e4chsten Jahr auch in anderen L\u00e4ndern wieder aufgeholt werden. Der Westbalkan d\u00fcrfte schneller wachsen als die EU-CEE-Region.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Russland k\u00f6nnte 2021-22 um 2,5-3% wachsen und die t\u00fcrkische Wirtschaft d\u00fcrfte 2021 um 4,7% und 2022 um 2,3% wachsen, nachdem sie 2020 einen R\u00fcckgang vermieden hat.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Wenn es nicht gelingt, die Pandemie unter Kontrolle zu bringen, k\u00f6nnte dies die Erholung verlangsamen, indem Dienstleistungen und Bauvorhaben beeintr\u00e4chtigt werden. Impfungen alleine reichen nicht aus, um k\u00fcnftige Lockdowns zu vermeiden. Die Regierungen m\u00fcssen mehr testen und Kontakte verfolgen als sie es im Moment tun.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Sowohl die Haushalte als auch die Unternehmen sind in einer guten Position, um Ausgaben zu t\u00e4tigen, sobald die Restriktionen gelockert werden.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Die Regierungen m\u00fcssen m\u00f6glicherweise die wirtschaftliche Unterst\u00fctzung erh\u00f6hen, wenn die Pandemie nicht unter Kontrolle gebracht werden kann. Mit wenigen Ausnahmen werden die fiskalischen Impulse 2021-22 voraussichtlich negativ sein.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Die CEE-L\u00e4nder profitieren von gr\u00f6\u00dferen, stabilen Kapitalstr\u00f6men als andere Schwellenl\u00e4nder. Die EU-Transfers in die EU-CEE-Region und die Westbalkanl\u00e4ndern werden in allen L\u00e4ndern au\u00dfer Rum\u00e4nien f\u00fcr positive, erweiterte Basissalden sorgen. Die Einnahmen aus Rohstoffexporten werden die Reserven in Russland voraussichtlich st\u00e4rken.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Ein \u00dcbergang zu einer lockeren Geldpolitik k\u00f6nnte die makro\u00f6konomischen Ungleichgewichte in der T\u00fcrkei ausweiten, eine Anpassung der Leistungsbilanz erzwingen und sich auf den Wechselkurs, die Inflation und das Wachstum auswirken.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Die wichtigsten wirtschaftlichen Risiken sind eine langsame Erholung inmitten einer weiter anhaltenden Pandemie und eine erzwungene Anpassung der Wirtschaft in der T\u00fcrkei.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Der Ausgang der Wahlen in Bulgarien und Tschechien ist h\u00f6chst unsicher, da die amtierenden Regierungen bisher nicht in der Lage waren, die Pandemie unter Kontrolle zu bringen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Russland ist mit begrenzten Sanktionen im Zusammenhang mit der Nord Stream 2 Pipeline konfrontiert, aber mit folgenreicheren Sanktionen im Zusammenhang mit einer m\u00f6glichen Einmischung in die US-Wahlen. In einem Extremszenario k\u00f6nnte der OFZ-Markt betroffen sein.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Wir sehen ein begrenztes Risiko harter Sanktionen gegen die T\u00fcrkei durch die EU und die USA.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"","hash":"e2b67f80bbfba19f7126e612f02b8e74334ea0dc829748900eb4cd73ce1c876f","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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Rates Perspectives

de6e192ee2b0adfb860cffe94b2fd52b2075b3e6e57223cb520052066d16e4fe;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":25468,"publicationDate":"07 Jun 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2021_180333.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVCsY1pNwWYpSfk0SvE3S76oaIky_YUON5g==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Rates Perspectives - Declining inflation risk premium likely to drive eurozone breakeven rates lower in the medium term","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Rates Perspectives","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Breakeven rates have recently increased in the US and in the eurozone and have become a hot topic. While a brighter growth outlook and mounting inflation expectations, together with the Fed\u00b4s new average inflation targeting, help to explain the increase in breakeven rates in the US, we find the increase in breakeven rates in the eurozone to be less in line with macro fundamentals and the inflation outlook. <\/li><li> We estimate the inflation risk premium in the eurozone and we find that it has contributed to the rise in breakeven rates in the eurozone in the past few months.<\/li><li> We also show that the recent increase in the inflation risk premium in the eurozone has little to do with idiosyncratic factors and more to do with the same phenomenon in the US. For this reason, its increase looks vulnerable to a reversal. <\/li><li> Moreover, with the medium\/long-term inflation outlook in the eurozone remaining rather subdued, medium-term inflation expectations are unlikely to improve further. We would therefore use any increase in eurozone breakeven in the next few months (due to a temporary increase in headline inflation) to enter short positions on linkers vs. long in nominal bonds with a medium-term horizon. <\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"de6e192ee2b0adfb860cffe94b2fd52b2075b3e6e57223cb520052066d16e4fe","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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Chart of the Week

db4d162b30b2479dbd64126bc5f47882e11f76e378a7a66fe404b7053bdbc992;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":25520,"publicationDate":"11 Jun 21","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_180394.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJO-OjE-wCTf-EtMAmOQps0o=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Chart of the Week - This is not the picture of a persistent rise in US inflation","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Chart of the Week","synopsis":"","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"db4d162b30b2479dbd64126bc5f47882e11f76e378a7a66fe404b7053bdbc992","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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UniCredit Investor Call/Webcast

c98ff14f4aa4a084311caad318a16825a0c738e328624e261e6d93fe943aad28;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":22567,"publicationDate":"08 Jun 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2020_177086.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJCc1A_K5r6eeorfVqhljgZc=&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Scenario macroeconomico 2020 e implicazioni di mercato","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"Marketing Material","synopsis":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\">Il Pil di Eurozona nel 2019 era EUR 11.9 tn<\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><strong>Consenso per il 2020: <\/strong> -8% => PIL 2020 intorno a EUR 10.9 tn \u2013 caduta intorno a EUR 1 tn<\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><strong>Previsioni UniCredit per il 2020: <\/strong> -13% => PIL 2020 intorno a EUR 10.4 tn \u2013 caduta intorno a EUR 1.5 tn <\/p>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"c98ff14f4aa4a084311caad318a16825a0c738e328624e261e6d93fe943aad28","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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Euro Credit Pilot Strategy

82a7d378e8cd59658cec7814045cd01b7a44f79ccdfecaf7a6e4a659cf71bd55;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":24050,"publicationDate":"03 Dec 20","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2020_178685.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVFcI2-vTFR2npiIhNkXBBHa2N8hoO2XWEw==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2020_178812.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVFcI2-vTFR2n65M1ZiLkezQQ5vDJdlNayQ==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Shortened version of the Euro Credit Pilot (December 2020)","titleDe":"Gek\u00fcrzte Version des Euro Credit Pilot (Dezember 2020)","titleIt":"","product":"Euro Credit Pilot - Strategy","synopsis":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>This is a shortened version of the Euro Credit Pilot, which we deem to be an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit under MiFID II.<\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented uncertainty in the global economic outlook, implying low visibility into the future. In our base scenario, while the macro picture might be uncertain, particularly at the beginning of 2021, we expect, however, the credit market to see another strong year, supported by an economic rebound from 2Q and technical factors.<\/p><\/p>","synopsisDe":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><em>\u00dcbersetzung der englischen Originalversion vom 3. Dezember 2020<\/em><\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><em>Diese Publikation ist eine gek\u00fcrzte Version unseres Euro Credit Pilot, die wir als annehmbare geringf\u00fcgige nicht-monet\u00e4re Zuwendung gem\u00e4\u00df MiFID II betrachten. <\/em><\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>Die COVID-19-Pandemie hat eine noch nie dagewesene wirtschaftliche Unsicherheit geschaffen, was eine hohe Prognoseunsicherheit mit sich bringt. In unserem Basisszenario gehen wir jedoch davon aus, dass der Markt f\u00fcr Unternehmensanleihen trotz der Unsicherheit in der makro\u00f6konomischen Entwicklung, insbesondere zu Beginn des Jahres 2021, ein weiteres starkes Jahr erleben wird. Unterst\u00fctzung kommt dabei vor allem durch eine wirtschaftliche Erholung ab dem 2. Quartal und technische Faktoren.<\/p><\/p>","synopsisIt":"","hash":"82a7d378e8cd59658cec7814045cd01b7a44f79ccdfecaf7a6e4a659cf71bd55","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"small","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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