06261aa6f7c2c702da46fc3167e51a8814508634daf9d94fabb8d1ef595da48e;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":3000,"publicationDate":"26 Jun 24","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2024_186683.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJEClgDOuLEGth168X9kROUc=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Economics Chartbook - Disinflation on track, rate cuts have a way to go (3Q24)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"The Unicredit Economics Chartbook","synopsis":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><\/p><\/p><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Global: <\/strong> We are increasing our global GDP growth forecast slightly to 3.1% this year from 2.9%. This is below its 2012-19 average of 3.4%, as high real interest rates, weakening resilience in labor markets and geopolitical tensions weigh on economic activity. Manufacturing is likely to show gradual improvement, while the services industry will probably lose some of its shine, mostly in the US. We forecast a slight acceleration in GDP growth to 3.2% next year, amid easier financial conditions. Annual inflation rates in advanced economies will likely continue to decline to target, or slightly below, in 2025. Goods-price inflation is likely to remain contained, assuming no major geopolitical shock, while services-price inflation should gradually slow thanks to cooling wage growth and firms finding it harder to pass on input price rises to customers. Global monetary policy is likely to ease through next year.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>US: <\/strong> We forecast the economy to grow by 2.2% this year and by 1.3% next year. The quarterly trajectory is unchanged, with growth slowing to around 0.8% annualized in 2H24 before picking up to about 1.6% annualized in 2025. The main drivers of consumption have lost steam, while business investment is unlikely to be a big support amid election-related uncertainty and high interest rates. We expect core inflation to decline to around 2% by mid-2025 and for the Fed to cut rates by 75bp this year, starting in September, and by 125bp next year. The risks are skewed towards fewer cuts this year. The 5 November election is too close to call. In our baseline we have assumed no major shock to geopolitics and trade, but risks are tilted towards policies that could damage growth and raise inflation.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>Eurozone: <\/strong> Activity surprised to the upside in 1Q24 but with domestic demand still weak, the eurozone is not out of the woods yet. We forecast GDP will rise by 0.6% this year and by 1.2% in 2025 as the drag from monetary policy eases while growth in real wages supports private consumption. A resilient labor market mitigates downside risks to activity. Disinflation has slowed but the trend remains intact. Wage growth has peaked, while companies are increasingly absorbing their high labor costs into their profit margins. The ECB cut interest rates at its June meeting without giving guidance about the future rate path. We expect a slow easing cycle at a pace of 25bp per quarter through the end of 2025.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>CEE: <\/strong> We forecast GDP growth of 2.7% this year and 2.9% in 2025 in EU-CEE, and above 3% in both years in the Western Balkans and Turkey. Domestic demand will remain the strongest growth driver, helped by real wage growth, fiscal transfers and falling interest rates. We expect net exports to contribute to growth in 2025, when capex might accelerate. We forecast cautious rate cuts this year, with more to come in 2025.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>UK: <\/strong> We are increasing our GDP growth forecast for this year to 0.7% from 0.2%, while our 2025 forecast is unchanged at 0.8%. Underlying growth remains subdued. If the opposition Labour party wins a majority at the 4 July election, it will likely increase borrowing to fund higher public investment, but some taxes will probably have to rise. Headline inflation should stay close to 2% for the rest of this year and fall below target next year. We still expect the BoE to cut the bank rate in August and make a total of 75bp of cuts this year.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong>China: <\/strong> On the back of stronger-than-expected 1Q24 performance, we are raising our GDP-growth forecast for 2024 to 4.8% from 4.5% while leaving our projection for 2025 unchanged at 4.3%. The outlook on the demand side is not bright. Consumer confidence is not recovering and remains stuck at historically low levels. The main growth impulse is from exports and state-driven investment. There are no signs of major all-in policy stimulus. We think the PBoC is unlikely to cut policy rates but rather to keep using ad-hoc lending facilities to support specific industries.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"06261aa6f7c2c702da46fc3167e51a8814508634daf9d94fabb8d1ef595da48e","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

b9bfa7b16d127980395cf2fc0409bc0818f1304019df1145b868cfa87b8a0783;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":2999,"publicationDate":"26 Jun 24","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2024_186682.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRodNoFPD-oET_tk-qv6dm7OA==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2024_186763.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRo9mPFH8JY3vKfTDE3clCy6w==&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"CEE Quarterly - Domestic demand powers growth, worries central banks (3Q24)","titleDe":"CEE Quarterly - Inlandsnachfrage befl\u00fcgelt Wachstum, beunruhigt aber die Zentralbanken","titleIt":"","product":"CEE Quarterly","synopsis":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p><\/p><\/p><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>We expect the economies in EU-CEE to grow by around 2.7% in 2024 and 2.9% 2025, with the Western Balkans growing by around 3%. We expect GDP to grow by 3.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 in Turkey and by 3.0% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025 in Russia.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Private consumption will remain the biggest growth driver, with public investment contributing this year and capex expected to rebound in 2025. Net exports will not boost economic growth until next year.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Labor markets have remained tight through the soft patch in economic activity of 2023-1H24. We see purchasing power continuing to rise in CEE in 2H24 and 2025.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Romania and Turkey will have to reduce their budget deficits, but they will remain far from the 3%-of-GDP threshold. Fiscal risks are limited in all other CEE countries.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>In the absence of fiscal tightening, we see risks of sovereign downgrades in Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Central banks have turned more cautious in 2024 due to persistent inflationary pressure amid loose fiscal policy and strong consumer demand. However, markets may now be underestimating the number of rate cuts in 2025, when we see policy rates approaching terminal rates in this cycle.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>The Hungarian presidency of the Council of the EU will prioritize EU expansion to the Western Balkans, reducing migration to the EU and improving competitiveness.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>The Western Balkans have a historic opportunity to reform, receive EU funding and, in the longer term, access the European customs union and receive sovereign upgrades. So far, reform momentum remains weak, and we see Montenegro as the frontrunner in negotiations.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>In our view, the main risks are 1. a hasty peace in Ukraine, 2. the stalling energy transition in Central Europe, 3. political infighting delaying euro adoption in Bulgaria, 4. some CEE countries falling behind in a two-speed Europe, 5. less investor appetite for EM assets and 6. weak reform appetite ahead of the demographic cliff at the end of the decade.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>\u00dcbersetzung der englischen Originalversion vom 26. Juni 2024<\/p><\/p><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Wir erwarten, dass die Volkswirtschaften in der EU-CEE-Region im Jahr 2024 um rund 2,7% und 2025 um 2,9% wachsen werden, wobei die westlichen Balkanl\u00e4nder um rund 3% wachsen k\u00f6nnten. F\u00fcr die T\u00fcrkei erwarten wir ein BIP-Wachstum von 3,6% im Jahr 2024 und 3,3% im Jahr 2025 und f\u00fcr Russland von 3,0% im Jahr 2024 und 1,6% im Jahr 2025.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Der private Verbrauch wird der wichtigste Wachstumsmotor bleiben, wobei die \u00f6ffentlichen Investitionen in diesem Jahr ebenfalls einen Beitrag leisten werden und auch die allgemeinen Investitionen 2025 wieder anziehen d\u00fcrften. Die Nettoexporte werden das Wirtschaftswachstum dagegen erst im n\u00e4chsten Jahr ankurbeln.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Die Arbeitsm\u00e4rkte sind w\u00e4hrend der Konjunkturschw\u00e4che in den Jahren 2023-1H24 angespannt geblieben. Wir gehen davon aus, dass die Kaufkraft in der CEE-Region in 2H24 und 2025 weiter steigen wird.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Ungarn, die Slowakei, Polen, Rum\u00e4nien und die T\u00fcrkei werden ihre Haushaltsdefizite reduzieren m\u00fcssen, aber sie werden weit von der 3%-Schwelle des BIP entfernt bleiben. In allen anderen CEE-L\u00e4ndern sind die fiskalischen Risiken begrenzt.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Bleibt eine Straffung der Finanzpolitik aus, besteht das Risiko einer Herabstufung der Staatsschulden in Ungarn, Rum\u00e4nien und der Slowakei.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Die Zentralbanken sind im Jahr 2024 aufgrund des anhaltenden Inflationsdrucks bei einer lockeren Finanzpolitik und einer starken Verbrauchernachfrage vorsichtiger geworden. Allerdings k\u00f6nnten die M\u00e4rkte die Anzahl der Zinssenkungen im Jahr 2025 untersch\u00e4tzen, wobei wir davon ausgehen, dass sich die Leitzinsen im Jahr 2025 den Ends\u00e4tzen in diesem Zyklus n\u00e4hern.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Die ungarische EU-Ratspr\u00e4sidentschaft wird der EU-Erweiterung auf dem westlichen Balkan, der Reduzierung der Migration in die EU und der Verbesserung der Wettbewerbsf\u00e4higkeit Priorit\u00e4t einr\u00e4umen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Der westliche Balkan hat die historische Chance, sich zu reformieren, EU-Mittel zu erhalten und l\u00e4ngerfristig in die europ\u00e4ische Zollunion aufgenommen zu werden, wobei sich auch die Ratingeinstufungen verbessern k\u00f6nnten. Bislang ist die Reformdynamik noch schwach, und wir sehen Montenegro als Spitzenreiter in den Verhandlungen.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Unserer Ansicht nach sind die Hauptrisiken 1. ein \u00fcberst\u00fcrzter Friedensprozess in der Ukraine, 2. die stockende Energiewende in Mitteleuropa, 3. politische Querelen, die die Einf\u00fchrung des Euro in Bulgarien verz\u00f6gern, 4. das Zur\u00fcckfallen einiger CEE-L\u00e4nder in einem Europa der zwei Geschwindigkeiten, 5. ein geringerer Appetit der Investoren auf EM-Assets und 6. ein schwacher Reformappetit im Vorfeld der demografischen Klippe am Ende des Jahrzehnts.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","synopsisIt":"","hash":"b9bfa7b16d127980395cf2fc0409bc0818f1304019df1145b868cfa87b8a0783","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"1","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"300","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]