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054ec6ed8e9d33001249d8a4409b1d40a50b1673d344f57f3ef602ee82bed4db;;[{"layout":"detailed","uid":29113,"publicationDate":"29 Mar 23","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2023_184832.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRockNs3hFoaK-H67WodFfQjA==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"CEE Quarterly - Preparing for a turnaround (2Q23)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"CEE Quarterly","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We expect the economies in EU-CEE to grow by around 0.9% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2024, with most countries avoiding a technical recession this year. The Western Balkans could grow slightly faster than EU-CEE in 2023 and slower in 2024. <\/li><li> Stronger global trade, fewer supply-chain bottlenecks, resilient consumers and more public and private investment will support economic growth. Tight financial conditions at home and abroad and destocking will weigh on growth this year, with negative fiscal impulses slowing the recovery next year. <\/li><li> In Turkey, we expect economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024, with capital inflows partly offsetting the tightening of monetary conditions if the opposition wins the elections scheduled for 14 May (as we expect). In Russia, we forecast an economic contraction of 2.5% in 2023, followed by a small rebound of around 1.7% in 2024, provided exports do not fall sharply, import substitution improves and public spending does not tighten too much. <\/li><li> Inflation has peaked throughout CEE but is likely to miss targets in 2023-24 as disinflation could be slowed by rising energy prices and taxes, the gradual removal of price caps, FX pass-through and backward-looking wage indexation supporting consumer demand.<\/li><li> Monetary policy has started to loosen through laxer liquidity conditions. In 2023, we expect rates to be cut to 12% in Hungary and to 6.50% in Czechia. In 2024, we expect rates to be cut to 4.50% in Czechia, 5% in Romania, 5.50% in Poland and Serbia, 7% in Russia and 25% in Turkey (following rate hikes to 40% in 2023).<\/li><li> CEE banks are well capitalized and profitable, but central banks need to manage any episode of risk aversion proactively. The Polish banking system would benefit from a blanket solution to end the lawsuits related to CHF mortgage loans.<\/li><li> The risk of funding higher budget deficits in 2023 has been mitigated by bumper issuance in 1Q23. Private and public borrowing from abroad will cover the C\/A deficit not financed through FDI and EU funds. <\/li><li> Gradual European integration for Serbia, following an agreement with Kosovo, could be used as a blueprint for Ukraine. The EU would benefit from investing in the energy infrastructure of the Western Balkans.<\/li><li><strong> In our view, the main risks are: <\/strong> 1. Europe\u00b4s lack of a common vision on how to end the war in Ukraine, which we expect to continue in 2024 without escalating to other countries or non-conventional weapons; 2. war fatigue in CEE; 3. the European Commission\u00b4s more flexible approach to observing whether EU countries respect the rule of law; 4. the growing popularity of Euroskepticism in EU-CEE; 5. Poland and Hungary\u00b4s missing EU funds; 6. political uncertainty if the opposition wins the elections in Poland and Turkey; and 7. Europe\u00b4s lack of a common natural-gas strategy.<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":"","hash":"054ec6ed8e9d33001249d8a4409b1d40a50b1673d344f57f3ef602ee82bed4db","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"detailed","size":"default","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M y","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"350","synopsisexpand":"1","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"1 m","limit":"2"}},{"layout":"detailed","uid":29112,"publicationDate":"29 Mar 23","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2023_184831.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJJtmvAqN5jK-6n5vk03tSB0=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Economics Chartbook - Central banks caught between strong data and tense markets (2Q23)","titleDe":"","titleIt":"","product":"The Unicredit Economics Chartbook","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Global: <\/strong> We forecast global GDP growth of 2.4% this year and 3.0% next year, below its pre-pandemic average rate. Indicators of economic activity have been somewhat more resilient than expected at the start of the year, including in the US, the eurozone and China. Still, most of the effects of monetary policy tightening on output have yet to come through, and recent developments in the banking sector could amplify the tightening of credit conditions. While core inflation has generally surprised to the upside despite ongoing improvement in supply chains, we still forecast fairly rapid disinflation this year due to base effects, lower commodity prices, below-potential growth and softening labor markets.<\/li><li><strong> US: <\/strong> Our GDP growth forecasts are broadly unchanged at 0.5% for 2023 and 0.8% for 2024. We still expect a mild recession but delayed by one quarter to 2Q23-3Q23. Strong data at the start of the year were likely only partly due to unusually warm weather. Going forward, the reduced stock (and unevenness) of personal 'excess savings', a slowdown in consumer credit and a weakening labor market will likely weigh on consumption. A tightening of credit conditions due to banking-sector woes risks amplifying the effects of monetary tightening. We expect headline CPI inflation to fall rapidly to 3% by year-end and to 2% by mid-2024, in large part due to the housing component. PCE inflation will probably be stickier. The Fed is almost done with rate hikes: we expect a final 25bp increase in May and 150bp of cuts in 2024.<\/li><li><strong> Eurozone: <\/strong> We confirm our forecast that GDP will expand by 0.5% this year and by 1.0% in 2024, as recent stronger-than-expected data for activity and the labor market offset some of the looming risk from financial market tensions and a weakening in the credit cycle. Headline inflation is on a downward trajectory while core inflation should peak soon. The ECB retains a tightening bias, but market tensions are likely to accelerate the transmission of monetary policy, hence reducing the need for rate hikes. We are lowering by 25bp the expected trajectory for the deposit rate, envisaging three 25bp increases (in May, June and July) and a peak at 3.75%. We continue to expect 75bp of rate cuts starting in mid-2024.<\/li><li><strong> CEE: <\/strong> In EU-CEE, we forecast GDP growth of 0.9% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2024, with most countries avoiding a technical recession. In Turkey, we expect growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024, with an orderly tightening of financial conditions if the opposition wins the elections scheduled for 14 May. Inflation might not fall fast enough in 2023-24 to return inflation to target. As a result, we forecast rate cuts this year only in Czechia and Hungary.<\/li><li><strong> UK: <\/strong> GDP is likely to contract by 0.4% in 2023 and to rise by 0.5% in 2024. This includes a mild recession lasting for most of this year, mainly driven by tight monetary policy. Headline CPI inflation is set to fall rapidly, mostly on account of lower energy prices. While the labor market remains tight, private sector regular pay growth has eased significantly. We forecast the MPC is done with rate hikes and will cut by 100bp in 2024.<\/li><li><strong> China: <\/strong> We confirm our GDP growth forecast of 4.9% for 2023 ' broadly in line with the new official growth target of 'around 5%' ' and 4.7% for 2024. Chinese consumers are expected to be leading the recovery after a prolonged period of spending suppression due to measures to contain COVID-19 infections. On the policy front, the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party reiterated that no major stimulus is in the pipeline. However, both fiscal and monetary policy are likely to remain supportive.<\/li><\/ul>","synopsisDe":"","synopsisIt":""}]


Global Head of Research

Marco Valli
Global Head of Research
Chief European Economist
+39 02 8862-0537

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The Unicredit Economics Chartbook

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Central banks caught between strong data and tense markets

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