e2fda6f48f4beb7f2e9a16bde35b727c4d7cd8e0d73c422d49e7378ade652268;;[{"layout":"linklist","uid":25191,"publicationDate":"02 May 10:54","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_180021.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJLvoB7Z-hhFGq1JTAjv18QE=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_180021.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJLvoB7Z-hhFGq1JTAjv18QE=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_180021.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJLvoB7Z-hhFGq1JTAjv18QE=&T=1&T=1"},"title":"Chief Economist\u00b4s Comment - Sunday Wrap","product":"Chief Economist's Comment","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> I\u00b4ll first reflect on what the path through 2021 may look like in terms of growth and markets in the US and Europe.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> I\u00b4ll then compare and contrast the US\u00b4 USD 4 trillion longer-term investment plans with Europe\u00b4s EUR 750bn NGEU (they are more alike than you think) and draw conclusions for European fiscal policy rules.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Third, I\u00b4ll appeal for full and constructive engagement on the three most important policies of common interest issues, namely climate change, corporate taxation and social platform responsibility.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Finally, I\u00b4ll summarise what I think this all means for the future economic structure, and specifically the relative attractiveness of sector developments.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","hash":"e2fda6f48f4beb7f2e9a16bde35b727c4d7cd8e0d73c422d49e7378ade652268","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"linklist","size":"default","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","synopsislength":"-1","synopsisexpand":"0","nodate":"0","nolinktitle":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M G:i","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"12"}},{"layout":"linklist","uid":25127,"publicationDate":"25 Apr 12:16","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179934.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJKd3EKl7RKJQ9TXPPgntxhU=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179934.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJKd3EKl7RKJQ9TXPPgntxhU=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179934.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJKd3EKl7RKJQ9TXPPgntxhU=&T=1&T=1"},"title":"Chief Economist\u00b4s Comment - Sunday Wrap","product":"Chief Economist's Comment","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> This past week\u00b4s German politics and what it\u00b4s likely to mean for Europe.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The Constitutional Court green light - but what\u00b4s next'<\/p><\/li><\/ul>"},{"layout":"linklist","uid":25099,"publicationDate":"21 Apr 9:54","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179898.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJCKvu3QaMkeZABSRQdl7goY=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Chart of the Week - PEPP net vs. gross purchases: The case for better communication","product":"Chart of the Week","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The most frequent discussions so far this year with clients have been on the extent of ECB support and PEPP details (how long, how much, how flexible), a topic that has intensified after the March central bank meeting\u00b4s promise of 'significantly' more purchases. Although the ECB insists on not focusing on the weekly data, these updates, out every Monday at 15:45 CET, have indeed become a fixed appointment for investors. In recent months, they have caused some puzzlement by showing a divergence between ECB action and its rhetoric.<\/li><li><strong> This Monday was no exception: <\/strong> net purchases under the PEPP that settled in the period 12-16 April, the second full week of 2Q, were EUR 16.3bn, lower than in the previous week (EUR 17.1bn) and only 10% up from the average in 1Q (EUR 15bn). While the ECB indications from the March meeting are subjective, we would be surprised if 'significant increase' was meant to be less than a 20-25% boost in purchases. Also, our understanding is that it referred to net purchases.<\/li><li> However, while net purchases were rather low, gross purchases, published yesterday, were very high at EUR 28bn. This is due to a EUR 12bn redemption, the highest level so far and well above the YTD average (EUR 3.2bn). Which of the two matters more, gross or net purchases' There are two key features of a QE program: net purchases and the composition of the stock, summarized by the weighted average maturity (WAM). Usually, net purchases are the most important way for the central bank to extract duration while reinvestments do not absorb any additional debt from private investors. However, things are not so clear-cut with the PEPP, which is still only about one year old. Last week\u00b4s redemptions originate from securities that were purchased with one-year maturity and, in case reinvestments are carried out with a significantly longer maturity, this would extract duration. This would happen, for example, as the ECB runs off its portfolio of commercial paper, which was almost EUR 13bn at the end of March. Discussing the relevance of gross versus net purchases becomes trickier.<\/li><li> More transparency regarding this program would help a great deal. If the ECB lengthens the maturity of its portfolio via reinvestments, communicating this clearly to markets would increase its effectiveness. We will eventually get an indication by looking at the data on the weighted average maturity (WAM) of the PEPP portfolio, but the data are only published every other month, and the next release will be in June. Telling investors what they should look at to assess the ECB\u00b4s purchase action would improve communication more than just insisting that investors should not read too much into weekly PEPP data.<\/li><li> Finally, the ECB provides a twelve-month forward rolling estimate of APP redemptions. The time is ripe for a similar disclosure also with respect to PEPP redemptions, especially if the difference between net and gross purchases carries any relevance. If not, the ECB should explain why net purchases remain so low compared to 1Q, and clarify whether they plan to implement the promised increase via gross or net purchases.<\/li><\/ul>"},{"layout":"linklist","uid":25067,"publicationDate":"18 Apr 10:27","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179863.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJCKvu3QaMkeZFQHuV96Kpp0=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179863.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJCKvu3QaMkeZFQHuV96Kpp0=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179863.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJCKvu3QaMkeZFQHuV96Kpp0=&T=1&T=1"},"title":"Chief Economist\u00b4s Comment - Sunday Wrap","product":"Chief Economist's Comment","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> What the IMF is recommending on fiscal policy ' and the likely European responses.<\/li><li>What the IMF is recommending on monetary policy ' and the likely ECB response.<\/li><li>How President Biden\u00b4s proposed minimum global corporate tax rate may help finally address the single most distortive fiscal issue in the eurozone.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>"},{"layout":"linklist","uid":25064,"publicationDate":"16 Apr 10:56","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179860.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJCKvu3QaMkeZTB8NEuwFXKM=&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Chart of the Week - Huge excess savings, but for different reasons","product":"Chart of the Week","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Our Chart of the Week shows the huge excess savings balances that households in the US and Europe have accumulated during the pandemic. Excess savings last year (measured as the cumulative sum of savings over and above the 2018-19 average) range from 8% of GDP in the US and 7% in the UK, to 4% in the eurozone and 3% in Germany. A 'normal' level of savings (using the 2018-19 average) is equivalent to around 8-9% of GDP in the US and eurozone aggregate. Interestingly, however, the rise in savings balances has been for very different reasons across countries.<\/li><li> In the US, 90% of the rise in savings is due to the strong rise in household disposable income, reflecting the unprecedented government transfers, which have been skewed towards households via stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits. At the other extreme, in Italy and Spain, the rise in savings is due entirely to the sharp fall in spending, particularly on services that involve a high degree of social interaction. The latter was in part forced via mandated restrictions and in part due to precautionary behavior due to concerns over health and income\/jobs.<\/li><li> A key question for the economic outlook is whether and how quickly households will run down their excess savings balances. The answer will depend both on the ability to spend (which will depend on restrictions) and the willingness to spend (which will depend on consumer confidence and pent-up demand). To the extent that cuts to expenditure reflect mandated restrictions one would expect excess savings balances to fall as restrictions ease and pent-up demand is unleashed. But the degree and speed of any reduction in excess savings balances will also depend significantly on whether precautionary behavior persists (which will depend on health concerns and the outlook for jobs and income). In the US, where the rise in savings is due mostly to the rise in household disposable income from (one-off) government transfers, we could see a gradual run-down of excess savings over several years, consistent with low estimates of the so-called wealth effect (i.e. the willingness of households to spend out of increases in their wealth).1<\/li><li> There are other, common, forces that will determine the willingness to spend, including the unequal distribution of savings (the rise in savings is concentrated among higher-income groups, which tend to have a lower propensity to consume) and the evidence that pent-up demand (and, hence, the recovery) tends to be weaker following a recession concentrated in services rather than durable goods (some of the spending cuts to services during the pandemic have been lost permanently, not delayed; for example, if you cannot go to a restaurant or a barber shop today, you will hardly go twice tomorrow if restrictions are lifted).2<\/li><li> In the US, since the end of last year there has been additional, substantial fiscal stimulus that has led to a further sharp rise in excess savings. Latest, following the more than USD 300bn sent to American households by the US Treasury in the second half of March, retail sales rose a stellar 9.8% mom in March (or USD 55bn ' less than 20% of the stimulus checks). Retail sales are only a subset of total personal consumption, but it seems highly likely that a sizeable proportion of the stimulus checks were not spent, at least not immediately.<\/li><\/ul>"},{"layout":"linklist","uid":25023,"publicationDate":"11 Apr 12:10","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179796.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJB57xGVxqtJbJv4X7fOd_i4=&&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179796.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJB57xGVxqtJbJv4X7fOd_i4=&&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179796.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJB57xGVxqtJbJv4X7fOd_i4=&&T=1"},"title":"Chief Economist\u00b4s Comment - Sunday Wrap","product":"Chief Economist's Comment","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> The global recovery: <\/strong> Under way but unevenly so.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The appropriate vs. likely policy responses, and \u2026<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> \u2026the signs of trouble at the ECB.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>"},{"layout":"linklist","uid":25001,"publicationDate":"08 Apr 9:26","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179774.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJB57xGVxqtJbHsMztX-hzyE=&&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Chart of the Week - Global minimum corporate tax and its varying impact on EU countries","product":"Chart of the Week","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> In his recent presentation of the more than USD 2tn infrastructure package, US President Biden proposed the introduction of a 21% global minimum tax for multinational corporations. Such a tax would double the already existing minimum US tax on profits <\/li><\/ul>"},{"layout":"linklist","uid":24984,"publicationDate":"07 Apr 9:49","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179752.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJB57xGVxqtJbNOc6Xd21d2E=&&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179756.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJB57xGVxqtJbx8QOkEC0UEI=&&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Oil Update - Suez Canal shutdown serves as a reminder of the importance of oil chokepoints","product":"Oil Update","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The blockage of the Suez Canal provided a reminder of the vulnerability of oil chokepoints \u2013 narrow channels along widely used global sea routes through which petroleum is transported. <\/li><li> The Suez Canal represents a key point but not the most vital oil<\/li><\/ul>"},{"layout":"linklist","uid":24939,"publicationDate":"30 Mar 14:37","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2021_179703.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRowj6TkjKKn2ls2gVPgAyjlQ==&&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2021_179875.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRoEdA9viEd5lMZpoEVNJjC3g==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"CEE Quarterly - Stronger recovery requires pandemic control (2Q21)","product":"CEE Quarterly","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We expect EU-CEE economies to grow by 3.9% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022. Last year\u2019s economic losses could be recovered this year in Hungary, Poland and Romania and the next year elsewhere. The western Balkans could outpace EU-CEE.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Russia could grow by 2.5-3% in 2021-22 and the Turkish economy is likely to grow at 4.7% in 2021 and 2.3% in 2022 after avoiding a contraction in 2020. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Failure to control the pandemic could slow the recovery by affecting services and construction. Vaccination is not enough to avoid future lockdowns, with governments having to test, track and trace more than they do at the moment. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Households and companies are both in a good position to start spending once restrictions are eased. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Government may have to increase economic support if the pandemic is not controlled. With few exceptions, fiscal impulses are likely to be negative in 2021-22.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> CEE benefits from larger stable capital flows than other EM. EU transfers in EU-CEE and the western Balkans will ensure positive extended basic balances in all countries but Romania. Revenue from commodity exports will boost reserves in Russia. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> A move to looser monetary policy could widen macroeconomic imbalances in Turkey, forcing an adjustment of the C\/A and affecting the exchange rate, inflation and growth. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The main economic risks are a slow recovery amid a raging pandemic and, in Turkey, a forced adjustment of the economy.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Elections in Bulgaria and Czechia are highly uncertain due to the incumbent administrations\u2019 handling of the pandemic. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Russia faces limited sanctions related to Nord Stream 2, but more consequential sanctions related to potential interference in US elections. In an extreme scenario, the OFZ market could be affected.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We see limited risk of crippling sanctions against Turkey from the EU and the US.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>"},{"layout":"linklist","uid":24938,"publicationDate":"30 Mar 14:36","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179702.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJB57xGVxqtJbiRfNezn8oyQ=&&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Economics Chartbook - The US leads the way to a brighter outlook (2Q21)","product":"The Unicredit Economics Chartbook","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Global: <\/strong> We have revised up our global GDP growth forecast for this year to 5.8% while leaving our forecast for next year unchanged at 4.5%. The change to our outlook mainly reflects additional fiscal support in the US, with some positive spillover effe<\/li><\/ul>"},{"layout":"linklist","uid":24927,"publicationDate":"28 Mar 10:58","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179680.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJM6N-HZYryT4kS80agdmR7A=&&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179680.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJM6N-HZYryT4kS80agdmR7A=&&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179680.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJM6N-HZYryT4kS80agdmR7A=&&T=1"},"title":"Chief Economist\u00b4s Comment - Sunday Wrap","product":"Chief Economist's Comment","synopsis":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p class=\"MIBBullet\">I\u2019ll first outline the Friday injunction (from what little has been made public), and suggest a possible way out.<\/p><\/p><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>I\u2019ll then summarize the bigger issue posed by the BVerfG\u2019s practice and rulings so far, which places Germany (and Europe) in what Joe Heller would have called a Catch-22.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li>Finally, I\u2019ll briefly outline what needs to happen for this Gordian knot to be cut.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>"},{"layout":"linklist","uid":24915,"publicationDate":"26 Mar 14:11","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/economics_docs_2021_179662.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJM6N-HZYryT416bR93irCqE=&&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Chart of the Week - US-euro area growth divergence due to a small number of industries","product":"Chart of the Week","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Our Chart of the Week shows that the outperformance of the US economy compared to that of the euro area during the pandemic is accounted for by a relatively small number of industries, namely \u201ctrade, travel accommodation and food services\u201d, \u201cprofession<\/li><\/ul>"}]

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a4cdae097062004f4cf519496761beb23ec0de3a6728b0ab26a7d15635102a0a;;[{"layout":"linklist","uid":24513,"publicationDate":"09 Feb 9:09","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2021_179186.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVCsY1pNwWYpSJTSghNhr0dG4SAep3M0SAg==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Rates Perspectives - Trading on the edge: 30\/50Y BTP flattener as a hedge against volatility","product":"Rates Perspectives","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Eurozone issuers are taking advantage of the low-yield environment and are increasing their issuance activity at the extra-long end. France and Belgium have recently issued new 50Y bonds, while Spain is expected to sell a new 50Y SPGB today. Italy could join them in the coming months.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We look at the main factors driving the 30\/50Y spread on both the BTP and the OAT curve. In addition to differences in term premium and liquidity conditions, the 30\/50Y spread on both curves is affected by yield volatility and differences in bond convexity.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We like a 30\/50Y flattener on the BTP curve, especially after recent steepening, as it represents a defensive trade if selling pressure on BTPs resurface. A new 50Y BTP would represent a good entry point for this trade.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We show that a 30\/50Y BTP flattener would work as a better defensive trade than a 10\/30Y BTP flattener.<\/li><\/ul>","hash":"a4cdae097062004f4cf519496761beb23ec0de3a6728b0ab26a7d15635102a0a","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"linklist","size":"default","showanalysts":"0","showcompanies":"0","showcountries":"0","showcurrencies":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","dateformat":"d M G:i","nolinktitle":"0","synopsislength":"400","synopsisexpand":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"4"}},{"layout":"linklist","uid":24424,"publicationDate":"01 Feb 7:01","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2021_179093.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVCsY1pNwWYpSseITqiopMUYb21i9hmCfCA==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Rates Perspectives - EU bonds and Bunds...mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the safest of them all?","product":"Rates Perspectives","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> EU bonds will become an important new component of the European sovereign market. In principle, they will establish the much desired common euro-denominated safe asset with a \u201cpolitical joint and several\u201d structure.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> In reality, however, compared with the strongest eurozone sovereigns, their pricing will reflect two aspects: liquidity and the perception of the political strength of the EU project. As the EU budget is ultimately guaranteed by the member states, EU bonds should not trade tighter than its strongest member.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The outperformance of EU bonds versus Bunds since the first SURE transaction reflects expectations that these assets will gain prominence and their liquidity will improve, making them more similar to sovereigns. We expect further tightening as a result.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> At current yield levels, we prefer EU bonds to small and medium-sized sovereigns. At the extra-long end, we regard EU bonds as expensive versus Bunds and prefer OATs, which offer a considerable yield pickup. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The strong secondary-market performance of the EU SURE transactions was spread-supportive for other European supranationals. We expect EU bonds to trade more expensive than other E-Names.<\/li><\/ul>"},{"layout":"linklist","uid":24229,"publicationDate":"08 Jan 10:39","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2021_178879.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVCsY1pNwWYpSxYneOq3LGyt4eyF56Lnjig==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Rates Perspectives - Italy\u2019s 2021 funding: We still favor the 5Y tenor","product":"Rates Perspectives","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Heavy government-bond issuance in Italy is set to continue in 2021. The amount of medium-term and long-term (M\/L) bond issuance (all instruments) in 2021 might be around EUR 345bn, which is roughly in line with that of 2020. Because there will be a higher amount of redemptions in 2021 compared to 2020, this will result in slightly lower net market funding compared to 2020: EUR 120bn in 2021, compared to EUR 145bn in 2020. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We expect Italy to continue lengthening its debt maturity in 2021. Its cost of debt will likely decline further and could fall from 2.40% to 2.10-2.15% if our rate forecasts prove correct. At the end of 2021, we estimate that the Eurosystem will hold 27-28% of Italy marketable debt. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The portion of issuance at the 3Y and the 5Y (to a lesser extent) tenors will likely decline compared to what it was in 2020, while the portion of funding allocated at the 10Y should remain very heavy. We expect supply pressure to remain sizeable at the extra-long maturities. <\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Based on the supply outlook and our rate view, our favorite trades on the BTP curve are long 5Y vs. 10Y and long 5Y vs. 2Y, or a combination of the two in a barbell, going long 5Y vs. the wings. <\/li><\/ul>"},{"layout":"linklist","uid":24066,"publicationDate":"04 Dec 14:22","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2020_178703.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVFcI2-vTFR2nFvdgpPgOyS7_7gSenXs8vw==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Rates Perspectives - 2021: Another year of heavy issuance but ECB to remain supportive","product":"Rates Perspectives","synopsis":"<ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> 2021 will be another year of very heavy funding requirements in the eurozone, with overall financing needs amounting to around EUR 1.52tn, only moderately lower than this year. M\/L redemptions will amount to EUR 665bn, down from EUR 700bn in 2020. We expect an overall cash deficit of EUR 835bn, only moderately lower than in 2020.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We expect the use of funds from the EU (under either the SURE or the NGEU) to mitigate only moderately intense issuance activity in the primary market by around EUR 85\/90bn.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> T-bill issuance is expected to be much less heavy than in 2020: we pencil in around EUR 80bn of net T-bill supply in 2021, down from EUR 255bn in 2020.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> This will leave M\/L domestic bond issuance to represent the lion\u2019s share of funding sources. We project M\/L-term issuance at the eurozone level to reach EUR 1.3tn in 2021, some EUR 100bn higher than this year. We expect the lengthening of debt maturity to be a theme in 2021. Net M\/L issuance will likely be particularly heavy in 1Q21, due to front-loading and low redemptions.<\/li><\/ul><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> However, heavy market funding will not be a key driver of yields, as the ECB will remain extremely active with asset purchases, as in 2020. Indeed, we expect the ECB to purchase an amount similar to the entire new net issuance in 2021.<\/li><\/ul>"}]

eada0c4ea76c629eb47a2c699db2ed6e715070a11680a5d9921f837e1ffd3a5f;;[{"layout":"linklist","uid":24050,"publicationDate":"03 Dec 14:06","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2020_178685.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVFcI2-vTFR2npiIhNkXBBHa2N8hoO2XWEw==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2020_178812.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVFcI2-vTFR2n65M1ZiLkezQQ5vDJdlNayQ==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Shortened version of the Euro Credit Pilot (December 2020)","product":"Euro Credit Pilot - Strategy","synopsis":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>This is a shortened version of the Euro Credit Pilot, which we deem to be an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit under MiFID II.<\/p><\/p><p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented uncertainty in the global economic outlook, implying low visibility into the future. In our base scenario, while the macro picture might be uncertain, particularly at the beginning of 2021, we expect, however, the credit market to see another strong year, supported by an economic rebound from 2Q and technical factors.<\/p><\/p>","hash":"eada0c4ea76c629eb47a2c699db2ed6e715070a11680a5d9921f837e1ffd3a5f","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"linklist","size":"default","showanalysts":"-1","showcompanies":"-1","synopsislength":"-1","showcountries":"-1","showcurrencies":"-1","synopsisexpand":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M G:i","nolinktitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"2"}},{"layout":"linklist","uid":21554,"publicationDate":"14 Feb 15:36","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2020_175974.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVFcI2-vTFR2nw6n3SIBxpGTmDpAUviCpvg==&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/fxfistrategy_docs_2020_176061.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=KZGTuQCn4lsvclJnUgseVFcI2-vTFR2nNTt7vdgznH-Jqun0zij8HQ==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"Shortened version of the Euro Credit Pilot (February 2020)","product":"Euro Credit Pilot - Strategy","synopsis":"<p class=\"ucrIndent\"><p>This is a shortened version of the Euro Credit Pilot, which we deem to be an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit under MiFID II.<\/p><\/p><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Introduction: <\/strong> The outbreak of the coronavirus has already led to the disruption of global supply chains, with numerous producers across sectors reporting production halts at facilities in China. The related uncertainties warrant defensive positioning in European credit.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Macro Outlook: <\/strong> So far there is little data on the initial impact on the global economy, and comparisons with the SARS outbreak in 2002 are not straightforward. But 1Q growth-related data will be negative.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Micro Fundamentals: <\/strong> Sluggish earnings growth in Europe will negatively impact companies\u2019 credit fundamentals.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Credit Quality Trend: <\/strong> The global economic outlook has become clouded, and the risk of economic slowdown in China due to the coronavirus has increased. Thus, the overall credit quality of European companies will likely decrease as indicated by the potential number of fallen angels.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Market Technicals: <\/strong> With the intensification of CSPP purchases, particularly in the primary market, the ECB is providing continuous support.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Valuation &amp; Timing: <\/strong> We are keeping our end-2020 spread projections unchanged.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li><strong> Sector Allocation &amp; Recommendation Overview: <\/strong> Uncertainties related to the coronavirus and its ramifications for Chinese growth and the global supply chain warrant defensive positioning. In this context, we lower our recommendation on Automobiles &amp; Parts to underweight from marketweight. We also lower our recommendation on Basic Resources to marketweight from overweight.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>"}]

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fca5774f669803887558f1f8bf49f8ba6cbad35f9de48a9f1720f5619f212128;;[{"layout":"linklist","uid":24939,"publicationDate":"30 Mar 14:37","emaObject":{"protectedFileLink":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2021_179703.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRowj6TkjKKn2ls2gVPgAyjlQ==&&T=1","protectedFileLinkDe":"https:\/\/www.research.unicredit.eu\/DocsKey\/emergingmarkets_docs_2021_179875.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=l6KjPzSYBBGzROuioxedUNdVqq1wFeRoEdA9viEd5lMZpoEVNJjC3g==&T=1&T=1","protectedFileLinkIt":""},"title":"CEE Quarterly - Stronger recovery requires pandemic control (2Q21)","product":"CEE Quarterly","synopsis":"<p><ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We expect EU-CEE economies to grow by 3.9% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022. Last year\u2019s economic losses could be recovered this year in Hungary, Poland and Romania and the next year elsewhere. The western Balkans could outpace EU-CEE.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Russia could grow by 2.5-3% in 2021-22 and the Turkish economy is likely to grow at 4.7% in 2021 and 2.3% in 2022 after avoiding a contraction in 2020. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Failure to control the pandemic could slow the recovery by affecting services and construction. Vaccination is not enough to avoid future lockdowns, with governments having to test, track and trace more than they do at the moment. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Households and companies are both in a good position to start spending once restrictions are eased. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Government may have to increase economic support if the pandemic is not controlled. With few exceptions, fiscal impulses are likely to be negative in 2021-22.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> CEE benefits from larger stable capital flows than other EM. EU transfers in EU-CEE and the western Balkans will ensure positive extended basic balances in all countries but Romania. Revenue from commodity exports will boost reserves in Russia. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> A move to looser monetary policy could widen macroeconomic imbalances in Turkey, forcing an adjustment of the C\/A and affecting the exchange rate, inflation and growth. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> The main economic risks are a slow recovery amid a raging pandemic and, in Turkey, a forced adjustment of the economy.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Elections in Bulgaria and Czechia are highly uncertain due to the incumbent administrations\u2019 handling of the pandemic. <\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> Russia faces limited sanctions related to Nord Stream 2, but more consequential sanctions related to potential interference in US elections. In an extreme scenario, the OFZ market could be affected.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p> <ul class=\"ucrBullets\"><li> We see limited risk of crippling sanctions against Turkey from the EU and the US.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>","hash":"fca5774f669803887558f1f8bf49f8ba6cbad35f9de48a9f1720f5619f212128","available":"0","settings":{"layout":"linklist","size":"default","showanalysts":"-1","showcompanies":"-1","synopsislength":"-1","showcountries":"-1","showcurrencies":"-1","synopsisexpand":"0","nodate":"0","notitle":"0","dateformat":"d M G:i","nolinktitle":"0","noproduct":"0","noflags":"0","shownav":"0","oldestedition":"","limit":"1"}}]

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